The second in a series of at least two, on how close selected Dodger prospects are to the majors …
Vitals: CF, switch-hitter, throws right, 5-foot-11, 195 pounds, turned 23 on September 1.
Summary: Last year, at age 22, Robinson had a robust .404 on-base percentage to go with a .438 slugging percentage, nine home runs and 38 steals in 53 attempts for Double-A Chattanooga. The year before, in the more power-friendly environment of Single-A Inland Empire, Robinson had a .375/.500 with 15 homers and 43 steals in 61 attempts.
For comparison’s sake: Xavier Paul, considered a borderline contender to start in left in 2011, had a .366/.429 with 11 homers and 17 steals in 26 attempts in Double-A at age 22 in 2007. Paul reached the majors for the first time in mid-2009. And of course, by now you know how quickly Matt Kemp made it to the majors from AA.
Eye on excitement: Not only has Robinson shown speed, occasional power and the ability to hold down a fairly key defensive position, he’s making keen strides with his batting eye. His walk rate and walk/strikeout ratio has improved every year since 2007 according to Fangraphs, and as Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus just wrote, Robinson “turned into a walking machine after the All-Star break, drawing 32 free passes against just 117 at-bats as part of a .308/.464/.453 batting line.”
Sobering: Robinson struck out 125 times in Single-A in 2009 and 125 times in Double-A in 2010.
Quick and dirty conclusion: Jerry Sands, 27 days younger than Robinson, soared to the forefront among Dodger prospects last season, but it’s Robinson who not only might get the first call this year, he also might have the brighter future. Threatening to add a discerning batting eye to his other tools, Robinson is close to becoming the complete package.
Having completed a season and change in Double-A, Robinson should start the season in Albuquerque, and based on the patterns we’ve seen in recent years, a midseason promotion to the majors is a distinct possibility, especially if his walk rate continues to blossom. Dodger manager Don Mattingly described his satisfaction with Robinson during the Arizona Fall League in this interview with Jason Grey of ESPN.com. Though Mattingly said that Robinson would ideally spend all of 2011 in the minors to develop further, Los Angeles should get a taste of him by September, unless he stalls out or a veteran blocks him the way the acquisition of Manny Ramirez helped block Paul in late 2008.
And so although the Dodgers seem to have only two legitimate starting outfielders today, by season’s end, they might have two more ready from the farm system – or at least two a shade better than Paul.
Did you know? Robinson is the only player the Dodgers have ever drafted from Crenshaw High School? The Dodgers picked him in the 10th round in 2005, 25 years after the last Crenshaw grad to make the majors was taken: Darryl Strawberry.