Men overboard: Looking at the Dodgers’ struggles with runners on

Here’s the OPS for the Dodgers with the bases empty and the bases un-empty:

Player/OPS Bases empty Men on Difference
Andre Ethier 1.089 .483 .606
Jerry Hairston .545 .000 .545
Carl Crawford 1.054 .753 .301
A.J. Ellis 1.008 .772 .236
Luis Cruz .333 .129 .204
Justin Sellers .606 .437 .169
Matt Kemp .554 .413 .141
Juan Uribe 1.025 .905 .120
Nick Punto .917 .833 .084
Adrian Gonzalez .915 1.213 -.298
Skip Schumaker .347 .651 -.304
Mark Ellis .500 .863 -.363
Team .764 .635 .129

I tend to think this is random – I’d be surprised if these figures didn’t fluctuate over the course of the season. It certainly offers an alternative explanation to Wednesday’s hypothesis.

Andre Ethier’s split is truly bizarre.

Here’s some more data:

Dodger team batting stats with bases empty

Rk G PA AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip
1 Hyun-jin Ryu 3 6 6 3 1 0 0 0 1 .500 .500 .667 1.167 .600
2 Andre Ethier 12 28 24 9 3 0 1 4 8 .375 .464 .625 1.089 .533
3 Clayton Kershaw 4 8 7 2 0 0 1 1 2 .286 .375 .714 1.089 .250
4 Carl Crawford 14 41 39 16 3 1 1 2 4 .410 .439 .615 1.054 .441
5 Juan Uribe 7 10 8 2 0 0 1 2 3 .250 .400 .625 1.025 .250
6 A.J. Ellis 10 21 19 7 4 0 0 2 4 .368 .429 .579 1.008 .467
7 Nick Punto 8 14 12 5 0 0 0 2 3 .417 .500 .417 .917 .556
8 Adrian Gonzalez 13 29 28 10 2 0 1 1 1 .357 .379 .536 .915 .346
9 Justin Sellers 12 28 25 5 0 0 1 3 5 .200 .286 .320 .606 .211
10 Matt Kemp 13 24 23 5 2 0 0 1 7 .217 .250 .304 .554 .313
11 Jerry Hairston 6 11 11 3 0 0 0 0 1 .273 .273 .273 .545 .300
12 Mark Ellis 13 35 33 7 1 0 0 1 5 .212 .257 .242 .500 .250
13 Skip Schumaker 7 9 8 1 0 0 0 1 1 .125 .222 .125 .347 .143
14 Ramon Hernandez 2 3 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 .000 .333 .000 .333 .000
15 Zack Greinke 2 3 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 .000 .333 .000 .333 .000
16 Luis Cruz 10 18 18 3 0 0 0 0 1 .167 .167 .167 .333 .176
17 Tim Federowicz 1 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000
18 Chad Billingsley 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 .000 .000 .000 .000
19 Josh Beckett 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000
Team Total 15 294 271 78 16 1 6 22 49 .288 .344 .421 .764 .333
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/18/2013.

Dodger team batting stats with men on

Rk PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF BAbip
1 Adrian Gonzalez 34 26 12 2 0 1 11 6 5 .462 .559 .654 1.213 0 1 .524
2 Zack Greinke 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .500 .500 .500 1.000 0 0 .500
3 Juan Uribe 9 7 1 0 0 1 2 2 0 .143 .333 .571 .905 0 0 .000
4 Mark Ellis 23 21 9 0 0 0 3 0 5 .429 .435 .429 .863 0 1 .529
5 Nick Punto 5 3 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 .333 .500 .333 .833 1 0 .500
6 A.J. Ellis 31 26 7 0 0 1 4 5 5 .269 .387 .385 .772 0 0 .300
7 Carl Crawford 20 17 5 1 0 0 1 3 5 .294 .400 .353 .753 0 0 .417
8 Ramon Hernandez 4 4 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 .250 .250 .500 .750 0 0 .250
9 Skip Schumaker 14 9 1 1 0 0 1 4 1 .111 .429 .222 .651 0 0 .125
10 Tim Federowicz 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 .000 .500 .000 .500 0 0 .000
11 Andre Ethier 31 25 4 0 0 0 2 5 5 .160 .323 .160 .483 0 0 .200
12 Justin Sellers 17 14 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 .143 .294 .143 .437 0 0 .222
13 Matt Kemp 36 32 5 2 0 0 5 2 11 .156 .194 .219 .413 0 2 .217
14 Josh Beckett 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 .000 .333 .000 .333 3 0 .000
15 Luis Cruz 25 22 1 0 0 0 1 1 6 .045 .083 .045 .129 1 1 .059
16 Jerry Hairston 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 .000
17 Clayton Kershaw 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 .000
18 Hyun-jin Ryu 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0
19 Chad Billingsley 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 2 0
20 Matt Guerrier 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0
Team Total 270 220 50 7 0 3 32 33 53 .227 .335 .300 .635 7 5 .278
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/18/2013.

Interestingly, the on-base percentages in both categories are nearly identical, mainly thanks to walks. The batting average and slugging percentage by the Dodgers with runners on is anemic.

  • Anonymous

    Ethier’s stats need an additional explantory variable: prevalence of LH pitching. He’s likely to see a lot more RH pitchers with bases empty. Managers will bring in a LH pitcher with runners on. Can you incorporate that into your analysis?

    • http://www.linkmeister.com/wordpress/ Linkmeister

      Without doing that, my impression is that he’s been doing fairly well against lefties so far this season.

  • https://www.facebook.com/kmt59 KT

    Well now I feel sure that I’m not a jinx. I picked a game where we had a strong possibility of winning with Kershaw pitching and didn’t watch and we lost again…so not it

  • Anonymous

    Certainly brings light to the current problem. However, the lights on (Halogen at that) moment for me was that going into a series with an AL team, a open roster spot to play with, the Dodgers make a move to allow Ramon Hernandez to be the DH. Ouch!

    • Anonymous

      I don’t think ownership will stagger on with our Manager and General Manager much longer if the losses continue…

  • Anonymous

    On the bright side: Gnatt Cain getting gnocked around again, by the Cerveceros, 5-0 after two in Milwaukee.

  • Anonymous
    • Anonymous

      He has the dumb.

  • http://www.dodgerthoughts.com/ Jon Weisman

    So far this year, Ethier has an .899 OPS vs. lefties and .659 OPS vs. righties. Yes, you read that right.

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=ethiean01&year=2013&t=b

  • Anonymous

    Less than .100 with the bases loaded?
    Disaster…so far

  • Anonymous

    Small sample size still. I look for lots of two-out hits in September when they’ll be magnified.

    • Anonymous

      sample – envy :-)

  • Anonymous

    If I’m reading correctly (a huge assumption) only Agon and Uribe have more than one HR. :(

  • Anonymous

    A few notes:

    1. I felt bad for Matty last night with the bases loaded. I was hoping for “Manny-Part Deux” :-)
    2. I could go on and on about how I’d use so many of Mark Ellis’ AB’s differently than Donny is, but I am
    making a pledge to myself not to waste my time (nor yours) on my advocating “small ball” for this club.
    3. (injuries aside) and simply put…….. This team has no ‘swagger’ IMHO.

    • http://www.dodgerthoughts.com/ Jon Weisman

      But the question is, has any team on a losing streak ever had swagger? Seems to me swagger is a consequence of winning. If you’re losing, it would just be misplaced arrogance.

      • Anonymous

        Great point, Jon. Yes, most of the time, the ‘swagger’ comes secondary to success.


        In ‘swagger’…. I think I was trying to allude to the fact that…

        Here comes a team with whom this ball club threw blows with just a few days ago… and, ‘nothing, zippo, nada’ –

        And, a sweep? – I guess I was just really surprised to see how the series unfolded…. (or unraveled, so to speak)

        It’s early yet. Long ways to go, as Vinny reminded us last night.

        ….
        PS – Any updates on Chris Capuano?????

    • Anonymous

      Jon T. – What would you have Mellis do? He has an OBP of .435 with men on base.

  • http://www.linkmeister.com/wordpress/ Linkmeister

    I’m about to start emulating those old Yankee fans who’d mutter “you spent all that money for what? A bunch of no-good bums who can’t hit out of a paper bag.”

    And I HATED those guys when they’d say that.

  • https://www.facebook.com/kmt59 KT

    I’m thinking we can get 5-7 innings tonight before we get hit with the hard stuff

  • http://www.dodgerthoughts.com/ Jon Weisman

    NPUT