Jon SooHoo/Los Angeles Dodgers

Jon SooHoo/Los Angeles Dodgers

By Jon Weisman

Jake Arrieta pitched six more shutout innings tonight for the Cubs, lowering his ERA this season to 1.77. Zack Greinke is still in the driver’s seat to lock up the Major League ERA title when he starts Saturday for the Dodgers, but there is suspense.

If Greinke …

  • … allows no more than two earned runs, he will win the ERA title no matter how many innings he pitches. You could add two earned runs to Greinke’s total right now, and his ERA would be 1.76.
  • … allows a third earned run, he will win the ERA title if he pitches at least 4 1/3 innings.
  • … allows a fourth earned run, you can hand the ERA title to Arrieta. Greinke would need to pitch at least 9 1/3 innings to finish with a lower ERA. Even a complete game by Greinke would leave him with a 1.770 ERA, compared to 1.769 for Arrieta.