Dodger Thoughts

Jon Weisman's outlet for dealing psychologically with the Los Angeles Dodgers, baseball and life

An offseason accounting

Juan Ocampo/Los Angeles Dodgers

Juan Ocampo/Los Angeles Dodgers

By Jon Weisman

Whenever it appeared the sky was falling on the Dodgers during the 11 years that I wrote Dodger Thoughts, it was sort of my niche to write posts explaining why the sky really might not be falling.

These posts, like my attempts to convince my youngest son that an earlier bedtime would actually make him less tired in the morning, were not entirely successful.

Some readers flat out disagreed with me. Others sniped that I was no better than an organization apologist. For the most part, though, people understood that I was an outsider, invested in the team, but coming from a place of independence and sincerity.

Usually, I had enough evidence on my side that it was no trouble making an argument that the glass at Dodger Stadium was more than half full. Plus, there was consistency to my point of view, which in many ways boiled down to “Can we at least play the games before jumping overboard?”

Since joining the Dodgers two years ago to blog here at Dodger Insider, it has definitely been a bigger challenge to write “keep calm” posts without seeming like a shill. For those who know me, my reputation buys me some credibility, but for those who don’t, it’s easy to be branded and dismissed as a spin artist. This might shock you, but it turns out my words don’t carry the same weight as Vin Scully’s.

It’s not always a problem. For example, when some were convinced in September that the Dodgers would blow the National League West — a division they ultimately won by eight games — it was pretty simple to point out how unlikely that was. Hysteria and paranoia are balloons easily popped.

But sometimes, I don’t even try. When Arizona snagged Zack Greinke 10 days ago (in a move that came with all the spontaneity of ordering eggs with a side of right-handed pitcher for breakfast, based on Ken Rosenthal’s story for Fox Sports), it was not the end of the world — and I say that as someone who adores Greinke, spent years religiously tallying his every success as a Dodger and half-believes he could pitch until he’s 60.

But in the face of all the disappointment, it seemed pretty pointless for me to make the argument that a) there were other ways to allocate those resources, and b) there’s something to be said for not taking the risks involved with paying a record annual salary for six years.

My platform is the Dodgers’ platform, and I don’t think people really wanted to hear that from the Dodgers’ platform on that day.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS V NEW YORK METS

Juan Ocampo/Los Angeles Dodgers

In the time that has passed, the Dodgers haven’t announced a major addition, while the Diamondbacks have traded for Shelby Miller (in exchange for a huge outlay), and San Francisco has added Jeff Samardzija and today, Johnny Cueto. For that matter, neither team might be as impressive as the Cubs, who at last count are bringing in talent including Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist.

The Giants’ signing Cueto, who in baseball’s collective conversation appears to be the last big-name free agent pitcher remaining, seems to have broken what was left of the spirit of many Dodger fans.

So now what?

I have spent a lot of time thinking about what to say to those who insist that the Dodgers are winging it without a plan, or that the team with the highest payroll in baseball is afraid to spend money, or that (as preposterous as it sounds) the front office simply doesn’t care about winning.

In no way do I think 2016 is over for the Dodgers. But how do I convince you I’m not just saying that — much less that I’m not being paid to say that?

My best instinct is to start by listing several things that are true, regardless of who is paying my salary.

  • The 2016 pennant race ends 9 1/2 months from now. The July 31 non-waiver trading deadline is 7 1/2 months from now. Opening Day is 3 1/2 months from now. MLB rosters are a flat circle.
  • The Giants and Diamondbacks finished a collective 21 games behind the Dodgers in 2015. While they have improved their teams, they had a lot of work to do — and to some extent, still do.
  • While the Dodgers are vulnerable to injuries, their rivals are not immune.
  • By some accounts and perhaps a consensus, the Dodgers have the best farm system in the National League. While “prospects” can be a dirty word for those who think the Dodgers are hoarding them at the expense of winning a title, they do equip the team to have better reinforcements than most over the long, 162-game season.
  • After losing by one run in a deciding Game 5 of the National League Division Series to the eventual league champs, the Dodgers have several players capable of improvement in 2016, whether it’s a more experienced Kiké Hernandez or Joc Pederson, or a healthier Yasmani Grandal or Yasiel Puig.
  • To this day, no NL contender has a closer like Kenley Jansen, and nobody has a pitcher like Clayton Kershaw.

Does this make the Dodgers champions? No, but it should be enough to stop digging the grave of the 2016 Dodgers before 2016 begins.

Jon SooHoo/Los Angeles Dodgers

Jon SooHoo/Los Angeles Dodgers

In the interest of credibility, however, let me also point out that there are reasons to be worried. Of course there are. This game comes with no guarantees, and notching three division titles on your punchcard doesn’t automatically entitle you to a free fourth. One day, like it or not, the Dodgers will have a disappointing year. Why not next year?

If you wanted to, you could find a reason for any and every Dodger player to have a down season. Corey Seager has a developmental setback. Adrian Gonzalez will turn 34. Justin Turner is coming off knee surgery. El Nino isn’t merely a weather phenomenon, it’s a sign of a Southern California apocalypse. And so on.

Despair over the past and concern over the future go easily into a blender, pouring out into a tall glass of ice cold negativity.

As the new year approaches, many fans — many diehard fans — have already pegged the Dodgers as a third-place team on paper. One thing I noticed today is that after opening the 2016 season at San Diego, the Dodgers play their next nine games against San Francisco and Arizona. My guess is that if the Dodgers don’t start the year better than 6-6, public opinion will be a tire fire.

And yet, there will still be 150 games left in the season.

I understand the scenarios. Everyone understands the scenarios. This is why you play the games. Because titles aren’t awarded to scenarios.

That’s not corporate spin. That’s not apologizing for, to date, a quiet offseason. That’s reality.

Take everything I wrote for what you will. I’m not under any illusion that my voice resonates with the masses. But for more than 40 years, I have lived and died with this team. And I have approached my fandom in a certain way, that I’ve come to recognize isn’t for everybody, but is valid and remains with me, independent of who provides me a seat at Dodger Stadium.

Speaking for myself and only for myself — I believe this organization’s response to doubt will be to push even harder toward the dream every Dodger fan wants.

In the meantime, there’s no value in being quick to assume the negative and dismiss the positive. Baseball is a process, and 2016 is only just beginning.

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34 Comments

  1. Having pulled back, a lot, from the daily grind of thinking about the Dodgers, I must say this sounds entirely rational.

    I do think the Cubs are the team to beat in the NL in 2016, but time and chance happeneth.

    Staring out the window, waiting for spring.

  2. jpavko

    Don’t fret Dodger fans! the glass is still much more than half full in Dodger land. no matter whom our division rivals bring into their pitching fold, not a team in our division or even in the league, matches the Dodgers for sheer pitching depth. Not only do we still employ the greatest pitcher on the planet in ClaytonKershaw, he is followed by a star in the making in Hyn Jin Ryu, in addition to Alex Wood. Along with steady if unspectacular arms in Hisashi Iwakuma, Bret Anderson and Mike Bolsinger. Keep in mind that 17nof the Dodgers top 30 prospects are pitchers including 2 of the top 3 in Julio Urias and Jose DeLeon. There’s still a lot of time until April 4th and if the roof is falling in on anyone it’s the rest of the NL West. Dodger fans, Te Future is soooo. bright, don your shades

  3. JON Thank You, Thank You, Thank You !! It could have been said any better !! For the love of the game, let play ball and see what happens !!

  4. Sorry I clicked before proof reading, should have said COULD NOT HAVE BEEN SAID ANY BETTER !!

  5. Pour yourself a big old glass of Koolaid. You obviously need more.

  6. Jon Weisman

    OK, I’m trying to understand this. I’m not enough of a mindless cult follower?

  7. Looking forward to the dogfight in the West!

  8. Jon, this is why we read you. Not because everything about the Dodgers is right, but fans never remember Boswell’s Law from one of our gods, Tom Boswell: Judge slowly. Even more slowly than that.
    So, let’s not end the pennant race before it starts, folks. We have bigger concerns, like talking The Vin out of retirement.

  9. Aaron

    Just be glad we’re not Rockies or Padres fans.

  10. So when do you expect Ryu to come back. I’m hearing June. Meanwhile, it’s Clayton and the midgets .to start and Jansen and bunch of retreads. Having lived and died with the Dodgers since April 15, 1958 (Giants 8, Dodgers )) and seen the first home game with my granddad (April 18, Dodgers, 6, Giants 5, the last time we were at .500 that season), I’ve seen a lot of good, bad and indifferent seasons, and I fear this will be indifferent unless Handy Andy and the boys remember these are the Dodgers and not Tampa Bay, Oakland or some other snall-market team. I think they’re more interested in winning enough to get butts in the seats and that’s all. Playoffs? World Series? Meah! By the way, it’s just me saying this; it’s a lot of great Dodgers fans among the unwashed masses who think for themselves and don’t drink the Dodger Blue Koolaid every day.

  11. Long term the FO is doing the right moves, but as part of a fan base that’s been waiting 27 years, we don’t care what 2018 and beyond will be yet.

    • How many years have fans of Tampa Bay, Seattle, San Diego, Milwaukee (Brewers), Denver, Texas, Houston, and Washington been waiting for more WS titles?

      Try forever. Not one of those eight teams has won even the first.

      If your response is you don’t care, this is the major-market Los Angeles Dodgers and WS titles are the birthright of “long-suffering” Dodger fans, at least please realize you’re coming from expectations based in attitudes of entitlement. Doesn’t fit the poor Dodger fan narrative, I know. But it’s true.

      Let’s see now…what day this month were the Dodgers eliminated from any chance at a NL West fourpeat and/or the 2016 postseason? I must have missed that.

      • Tampa Bay started as a franchise after the Dodgers last won. And the Padres, Rockies, Rangers and Astros all have gone to the World Series since Dodgers have.
        Look if a rebuilding needed to be done I understand, and I like the future, but if you think the Dodgers are the favorites to win even the division next year, I just can’t agree. Its not an entitlement, I just don’t get why this FO and ownership seems to be punting next year. The only chance is if the Giants and Diamondbacks have to many injuries. That is not a good plan.

  12. No matter what happens from here on, one thing’s for sure: so far, the Dodgers powers-that-be aren’t making the off-season much fun.

    Does that sound like a juvenile thing to say?

    Well, for me, baseball has always been a 12-month sport. The game may be played for only 6 months on the field, but most years, it’s entertaining to see the game played by management, in the fall and winter, to make deals and bring in fresh talent.

    Usually, by this time, there are new acquisitions to delight in—reasons for us fans to dream about the months to come.

    Dreaming is good!

    This year, the game ended in October, and things have only gone downhill since then.

    A great player lost (Greinke), a damn good one let go (Kendrick), and nothing to compensate for those losses. (Except maybe Iwakuma.)

    Right now, on the Dodger front, there’s no fun at all to be had. And I, for one, miss it.

  13. paulgarzajr

    There are all kinds of scenarios to consider and both the Cueto and Greinke deals contain risks. Sure. Still, the Dodger day-to-day lineup last year did not match up well with either Giants or the D-backs and, the Dodger offense was considerably poorer. That doesn’t get any better next year. Anybody who thinks that Grandal is going to hit for power next year following shoulder surgery is nuts. His defense, which was relatively poor, may also suffer. Now it appears that both the Giants and the D-backs will have better starting rotations . . . hope the Geniuses (Friedman and Zaidi) know how to spell ‘third place’ because their amazing moves have destroyed the core of a very competitive team. Maybe Cueto and Greinke will both go down with elbow injuries next year . . .that is the only way this off-season mess can be salvaged. I am, along with nearly all Dodger fans, really ticked. The Geniuses look like they will rank with Paul DePodesta for front office brilliance.

  14. Do you think that the Dodgers are possibly … possibly … thinking that either Julio Urias or Jose DeLeon. will be ready to step into a starting role?

  15. Having read the article and everyone’s responses carefully I will settle back knowing we have a third place team in the NL West. Maybe I’ll be pleasantly surprised but with expectations settled upon no disappointments like last year and no more games for Donnie Boy to blow

  16. oldbrooklynfan

    When the season ended I felt that the Dodgers had one of the 10 top teams in baseball, which included Kershaw and Greinke in the starting rotation. Without Greinke it’s like taking a big chonk out and weakens their chances of even making the postseason.

  17. leekfink

    All fair points. But, the problem is 2-fold.

    First, the basic problem is that the 2015 Dodgers were favorites or co-favorites to win the World Series by the time Spring Training started, and were run-away favorites to win the division. There is certainly time to go in the winter–and, yes, more importantly, time in the season, but right now the Cubs, at least, and probably the Cardinals and others have passed the Dodgers as the NL favorites, and right now, the Dodgers are only “competitive” in the NL West. That’s backsliding. Not good.

    Moreover, however, the concern is not that people do not think that the Front Office has a plan. It’s the fear that the Front Office plan is playing out. Not a plan that is uninterested in winning, to be sure, but one in which “sustainability” (which was a DePodesta/McCourt era codeword for trying to do it on the cheap) is paramount. It’s easy to imagine the Dodgers being outbid for David Price. It’s possible to the Dodgers imagine being outbid for Johnny Cueto, given that he comes with some concerns. It is hard to imagine being outbid for Zack Greinke, who is probably the second-best pitcher in the National League (and maybe can pitch until he is 60), or some combination of outbid and Greinke for a host of reasons preferring Arizona. But it’s just not reasonable to believe the Dodgers are getting genuinely outbid for the 3 big free agent pitchers unless there are self-imposed limits. And if those limits apply to Greinke–then who would they not apply to? What is to make us think that Clayton Kershaw won’t walk in 3 years? I don’t really know. I would like to trust the Front Office. But right now, I don’t. They did a lot of stuff last year which obviously had not short-term impact, and it is still not clear if there was positive long-term change–maybe, it seems. But there is not a clear vision for the Dodgers. There always used to be. We did not have to guess who the manager would be. We did not have to guess about the Front Office’s motives. There was a Dodger Way, and it was handed down from Branch Rickey to Buzzie Bavasi to Al Campanis. And it is the team’s obligation to let us know what it is doing. You have been a Dodger fan longer than Andrew Friedman has been alive, and both of us fans since long before Guggenheim bought the team. There is a responsibility to the fans and the people of LA–those who have kept the team going for years–to be able to explain, to some degree, what is going on. The Guggenheim group may technically be the owners, but they are merely stewards of a public trust. And if the fans are freaking out right now, it’s not because we have doubts about whether Clayton Kershaw will put up a 6th consecutive Cy Young-worthy season, or that Adrian Gonzalez will not be a constant again, or even that we don’t think the Front Office team is smart and savvy. But it’s because the team–and specifically, the Baseball Operations side, has simply not set out a comprehensible vision for the team, and has not yet earned the right to assume our trust.

    • Jon Weisman

      The front office has said over and over again their goal is to win a World Series every year, while building sustainability for the long term. I think they have explained their plan repeatedly. I have posted about that on the blog as recently as last week.

      http://dodgers.mlblogs.com/2015/12/09/winter-meetings-update-from-kasten-friedman/

      Here are some quotes directly from Friedman. The vision:

      “We’re tasked with doing everything we can to put ourselves in position to win a World Championship this year, while maintaining the position to sustain success over the long haul,” Friedman said.

      Here’s what happened last week:

      “We’ve had tremendous amount of conversations with other teams … and various agents,” Friedman told Rizzo. “We obviously had a lot of dialogue coming into this week. And so we had a good feel for areas we wanted to spend a lot of time on. Some have led to dead ends, and some are still kind of going. We had a target list of guys that we want to try to acquire, and we’re doing everything we can to try to bring some of these guys to Los Angeles.”

      “I think the trickiest part of the offseason by a lot is the timing element. Oftentimes, you’re not able to work down your list methodically — it’s the guy who’s third or fourth on your list you can work something out with now, but that means obviously foregoing guys one, two, three, and that’s a risk that you take. … Do you take the chance and wait?”

      I think that lays out what the goals are and what the challenges are. If you still think they don’t have a plan, or if someone else thinks they don’t care about winning, then the problem is, as you suggest, trust.

      If people are waiting to hear specific names that are going to be signed, well, no team does that, for what I think are obvious reasons.

      • I for one think the long term plan is great and the right thing to do. Not sure their actions are aligned with what he saying short term however. Again I can understand almost every non move made this off season, but the Cueto one stings, I think that was one they could have offered more money than the Giants and it wouldn’t be that bad long term.

  18. Of course, we have to wait and see what the season brings. But that really doesn’t answer the question of how this team stacks up against the NL this year. Not only have the Giants and D-Backs gotten stronger, but so too have the Cubs and Mets. If Dodgers are supposed to be WS contenders they have to look at the whole picture. Losing in the NLDS this year was not mere happenstance. Greinke and Kershaw did their job but Dodgers scored only 1 run in Clayton’s first start and 2 runs in Greinke’s finale. Not totally surprising considering the Dodger offense was below league average in the 2nd half. Yes, Mets pitching stopped a good Cub offense too, but the Cubs have gotten even better this offseason. Dodgers haven’t. In the only NLDS game when Dodgers’ offense scored a lot of runs, the team was let down by the mediocre pitching of Anderson and Wood, showing the iffiness of starting pitching after the big two last year. Adding Iwakuma might be nice in terms of eating some innings but he is no Greinke when it comes to winning big games in postseason. Who knows when Ryu will be back or how good he will be when he does return after 1.5 years off.
    Sure, the offseason isn’t over yet and some moves can still be made. But let’s not fool ourselves either. The cream of the free agent crop has signed deals already. Dodgers have said they will become more cost effective and it looks like payroll reduction will happen this year. So unless the farm system is going to be raided somewhat to get more help for this year, as of right now we’re looking at the stark reality that this team will be very lucky to make the playoffs period, let alone be a World Series contender.

  19. oldbrooklynfan

    I have to say I overwhelmingly agree with both Leekfink and Roger Miller.

  20. Nice post, Jon. There are fans out here who take this view, too. Including the not-without-some-trepidation part. I definitely have plenty of trust in what Friedman and Zaidi are up to, and find the “don’t care about winning” meme to be flat out stupid. However, if does feel like over the last few weeks, the FO plan has not played out as they envisioned, and from the outside it feels like they were caught without a clear idea of what they wanted to do once G was signed and the Chapman thing turned out insanely. I’m glad they didn’t do something flashy, just to appease the fan base, but I am waiting with some nervousness to see what they have in mind. I’m actually perfectly happy to be biasing in favor of long-term success, which seems to be the overall thinking (remember, people, how many games Theo Epstein won with the Cubs in his first three years — I think the numbers are 61, 66 and 73). But — with Kershaw’s health not guaranteed, and him being right in the middle (we hope!) of his prime, we do want to see something set up to have a chance at all-the-way this year, too. I suspect the FO have some thoughts about that — let’s see ’em, guys. Thanks for what you do, Jon. Cheers.

    • paulgarzajr

      I hope you are right but I don’t confidence in the front office. I do respectfully suggest the Cubs are a poor example to be citing. When Epstein took over the reigns the players were aging and the team was no longer competitive. The Dodgers haven’t fallen that far yet.

      • That just made Epstein’s job easier. Cub fans didn’t expect a short-term turn around. As we can see, Dodger fans won’t put up with such an approach and the FO needs to retool on the run, as it were. In the transition, the FO should be credited for their moves not to resign Hanley and for getting something for Matty. If those two had been retained, we might have had a very poor 2015. Sorry to see Dee go, as well, but they got a good haul for him.

  21. Based on all Jon said I think my thoughts and well wishes go to Dave Roberts. I remain happy with the Dodgers until they trade Joc Pederson. I am not going to tune in to a team composed of players from other teams. Win or lose, I want to cheer for Joc, Seager, Turner, Ellis, and Kershaw.

    Jon, I would love for you to keep us aware of what players are doing in the off season to get ready for 2016.

    And, Jon, I again urge you to share this link with somebody that will take advantage of the technology: https://mail.google.com/mail/ca/u/0/#inbox/1519368fcc30d569

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