So, who wins the National League West?

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How about an off-day predictions thread? Friday marks the start of the two-month countdown to the end of the regular season, one in which the National League West might not deliver any wild-card representation. So who do you think will win the division title?

  • http://www.baseballrealitytour.com Bobby A

    Thinking it’ll be the Dodgers, with the Choate/League additions to the bullpen paying off even more than Hanley/Victorino.

    • KT

      wow ballsy prediction…even with more limited playing time

    • Anonymous

       The less League pitches, the better the Dodgers will do.

      • Anonymous

        The better the Dodgers will do, the less League pitches

        • Anonymous

           We certainly agree on this one. I was hoping the Gnats would acquire him.

  • Anonymous

    The end of the Russia-Brazil basketball game was quite the thing. Except that the crowd didn’t seem to be in to it very much.

  • Anonymous

    I really hope that the biggest deadline acquisition in the NL West doesn’t turn out to be Chris Johnson.

    • KT

      He looked good in our series

  • Anonymous

    Didn’t realize Arizona was playing so well.

    • http://www.dodgerthoughts.com/ Jon Weisman

      The Dodgers sure did. :)

  • Anonymous

    At this stage, I’d guess (emphasis on guess) the Giants, for three reasons.  First, they have a head start – they’re currently in first place.  Second, I think they improved the most (Pence is, marginally, the best player added to the NL West, and they didn’t give up anyone as valuable to the 2012 season as Eovaldi/Lindblom). Third, and most importantly, I think they have the most upside, because two of their best players, Lincecum and Kung Fu Panda, could contribute more over the stretch than they have so far. 

    That last point could be wrong, however, if Lincecum’s problems are due to injury and if Panda’s injury doesn’t heal in time to help, then the Giants are what they are, without much upside.  To be honest, I really don’t know the status of either guy.

    • Dave Alden

      There are several good points here.  However, because of positional value, Hanley Ramirez is probably the best player added to the NL West.  By fWAR, it’s 1.6 for Ramirez to 1.2 for Pence.

      I see the Giants and Dodgers staying close into the final week, with the Dbacks fading.  If I had to bet the house, I’d go with the Giants.  But I don’t, so my heart stays with the Dodgers.

    • http://underdog.typepad.com/ underdog

      I honestly think 2 teams from the NL west are going to make the playoffs, with one team a close and disappointed 3rd. Giants have slight edge right now in schedule but that’s about it. Their lead is practically insignificant. And they haven’t really shown ability to beat any of the good teams very much this season. Dodgers of course have their own problems with inconsistency and need to make up some ground soon when they do play some weaker teams. Should be a tight one!

      • KT

        even with the way the central division teams are playing (pitt/cinn)

        • http://underdog.typepad.com/ underdog

          Remember one more team makes the playoffs this year.  Though being that last wild card team means a 1 game playoff which is not great odds, but better odds than missing playoffs. 

          • KT

            yea Pitt, Atl and StL are all ahead of us with Az right behind…I feel we don’t win the division we aren’t going. I know there is a lot of games left but we have to make up 4 games and jump 2 teams in the WC and only .5 in the west

  • Anonymous

    The schedule seems to favor SF. My heart the Dodgers. Whoever winds up 2 & 3 better play well to even consider thinking WC though.

  • foul tip

    “How about an off-day predictions thread?”

    On news of Derek Lowe’s DFA, I predict Ned will need to be locked in a room with no communication devices, since the Dodgers missed on the starting pitcher he sought.

    Lowe is way too PVLy for Ned not to be tempted. And a former Dodger and all that. Whoever locks Ned away needs to double-check the locks.  If he escapes, maybe he’ll be deterred by Lowe’s recent numbers and his second halves the last year or so.

    If Ned does bite, let’s hope Kasten acts as fail-safe.

    • http://www.dodgerthoughts.com/ Jon Weisman

      If Ned has any interest in Lowe, it wouldn’t cost more than the MLB minimum, so I don’t need any reason to lock the doors. 

      • foul tip

         Wasn’t  concerned about contract but about performance, or lack of…like lately.

      • KT

        what about the roster spot? Wouldn’t we need to make room

      • Anonymous

        Except I don’t want Kent or Lowe on my TV.

      • http://profile.yahoo.com/BB6HNIMONWEIEVFAJWJKRHQX3E BB

        Lowe’s sinker is very effective–it sinks right across the middle of the plate and then sinks again about six rows deep in the outfield.  It’s an interesting exercise in physics:  His sinker has lost maybe 5-6 mph, yet seems to speed up dramatically when it comes into contact with maple or ash.

    • Anonymous

      From Colletti’s perspective, Lowe also has the DePodesta stink on him, so he might spite him for that reason alone.

    • Vail Beach

      The one-syllable last-named that starts with an L that the Dodgers will obtain is not Lowe but L__.

      • http://profile.yahoo.com/BB6HNIMONWEIEVFAJWJKRHQX3E BB

        I doubt it.  Word from Kevin Kennedy was Dodgers had him in a deal with Philly but he vetoed it because he doesn’t want to play in LA.

  • Anonymous

    My bold off day prediction – Donnie will send out yet another lineup change tomorrow?!?
    When will he just pick one and go with it – at least for a week? Ethier is clearly not a 2 hole hitter.
    Why not just slide M. Ellis back in the 2 hole, Kemp at 3, followed by Andre and HanRam. See that was easy!

    • http://underdog.typepad.com/ underdog

      It probably has something to do with just about no one hitting well in the leadoff spot all season? Not to mention some other serious holes in the lineup for much of the year. Ellis is good in the 2 hole, I agree. But now that they have Victorino, he will lead off, Ellis will stay in 2 spot, and so on. I think you’ll find the lineups a lot more consistent now that they’ve added Victorino and HanRam.

      • Anonymous

        I hope they don’t consistently feature Shane.  He’s a mediocre lead-off guy.

        They should give Hairston the lead off role at LF, and swap Shane in as a baserunner or PH at an opportune time when the SP fades (anywhere from the 5th to 8th).

        This is obvious, much as the fact that Uribe and Loney shouldn’t have had a single AB since late May was obvious. 

        • foul tip

          With his history of success, especially post-season, count on seeing him lead off every day.  He was described as the missing lead-off hitter when acquired.

          • Anonymous

            That’s the past.  The speed (bat and foot) has faded badly since his in the park in SD.  It happens.  His 2012 average doesn’t exist in a vacuum.

          • foul tip

            Agreed that his 2012 isn’t his best.  But management said he was acquired to lead off.  So….

          • Anonymous

            If after you switch 2010 and 2011 you put 2003 after 2010 your argument works even better

          • Anonymous

            Yeah, while SV might get a day off now and again just to rest, there’s no way he’ll be platooned or any such (reasonable) thing.

          • Anonymous

             Yes, and he’s not even a lead off hitter?!? Rollins hits lead off for the Phils!

        • http://underdog.typepad.com/ underdog

          I feel like this discussion is moot anyway given Mattingly saying Victorino is going to hit leadoff for the Dodgers.   Obviously something could change if he slumps horribly, but this is generally what you’re going to see. Will see more mixing and matching of the lower half of order now while top off is pretty set.

    • http://www.dodgerthoughts.com/ Jon Weisman

       What’s the argument for having the same lineup every day, as opposed to playing matchups the best you can?

      • Anonymous

        The argument is that players are fragile little boys with delicate egos, and getting bumped from the 3-4-5 club to the 7-8 spot (or losing a leadoff spot, getting semi-platooned etc) might hurt their self-image and, hence, affect their play.

      • http://underdog.typepad.com/ underdog

        People are easily bored?

      • Anonymous

        If he did played the matchups consistently, Ethier would be on the bench more often.  He does keep players that are now utility players happy.  I like to see a core group of players playing at a minimum of 75% of the time and hit in the same spot when they do play.

        Based on the players on the team I think the core is  composed  of Ethier, Kemp, A.C. Ellis, Loney, Ramirez, and now Victorino.  Rivera, Abreu, Hairston, Kennedy, Ellis, Herrera, Cruz, Gordon, Gwynn, are the utility role players.

        Mattingly can mix and match with the role players but not the core players–my opinion.

        Victorino, Loney, Kemp, Ethier, Ramirez, A.C. Ellis, Role, Role, pitcher–would be my everyday lineup.

        • http://profile.yahoo.com/SNN6P3ZHTDDRFNWCT6X2TOFVHQ Dr. Rockso

          What no Mellis?  And who is AC Ellis?
          Victorino, Mellis, Kemp, Ethier, Ramirez, Loney, Cruz, AJellis, Pitcher–would be my everyday lineup.

          • Anonymous

            I can live with that one as well.  A.C. is A.J.’s first cousin by a previous marriage.

      • http://profile.yahoo.com/BB6HNIMONWEIEVFAJWJKRHQX3E BB

        In Shane Victorino’s case, I think playing leadoff every day can only benefit him.  The Phillies bounced him all over the lineup (I believe he stormed out of the clubhouse a couple weeks ago when the had him 7th or 8th).  I like Jimmy Rollins, but he was never a prototypical leadoff guy, yet insisted on being put there.  Charlie Manuel might have done Victorino a disservice by not telling Jimmy he was batting 2nd (or 6th) and sticking the Flyin’ Hawaiian in the 1 slot.

    • Anonymous

      I have been complaining about the lineup changes for quite a while.

  • http://underdog.typepad.com/ underdog

    Cliff Lee was placed on waivers! ZOMG! Everyone panic!  
    ;) Thus begins the yearly period of guys with huge contracts waived who will be pulled back and not traded. 

    • Anonymous

      Yeah, isn’t everyone placed on waivers in August?  What’s the downside, other than an administrative error allowing a superstar to leave for nothing?

    • Anonymous

      What happens if the Dodgers claim him which I would love to see. Do you think it is 100% sure the 
      phillies will pull him back?

      • http://profile.yahoo.com/BB6HNIMONWEIEVFAJWJKRHQX3E BB

        More likely they’d dump his salary on them.  But I heard he doesn’t want to play in LA.

  • foul tip

    From the no sense of humor dept.–

    The umpire in last night’s Class A Fort Myers (Twins)-Daytona (Cubs) ejected the Stadium’s DJ after he played Three Blind Mice over the PA system.

    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/extramustard/hotclicks/08/02/minor-league-umpire-ejects-dj-for-playing-three-blind-mice-ciara/index.html#ixzz22PymO1fC
     

    • Dave Alden

      I spent several years as part owner of a minor league club.  And was once threatened with ejection from my box seat if I didn’t direct our marketing director to apologize to the homeplate umpire.

      With that said, I don’t think the PA announcer should have been ejected.  But I do think that the league office should have fined the announcer and warned him that he’d be suspended if he did it again.  Fans can get unruly.  Part of the task of the home team is controlling that aggression, not inciting it.

    • Anonymous

      Probably because in a Class A game there are only two umpires.

  • Anonymous

    BP answers the topic thread question each and every morning, of course:

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

    Currently they have SFG winning 87 and us and the snakes winning 85.

    They also think that the WC second seed will go to the NL central team that wins 89.

    The coming road trip is a little more relevant than usual, seeing as how we’re in a race with the Bucs and Braves every bit as much as the Gs.

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/SNN6P3ZHTDDRFNWCT6X2TOFVHQ Dr. Rockso

    My hope is that after a week or so, the revamped roster will gel and take off.  Just in last 4-5 weeks we’ve had about a 32% turnover, what with Kemp, Either, and Mellis coming back, and the loss of Eo and acquisitions of Ramirez, Victory-no, League, and Choate.  I think a consistent lineup would expedite the gelling effect as well.

    • Anonymous

      What does it mean to “gel” in baseball?  Especially on offense?  IT’s not like there’s any teamwork involved.

      I’m willing to believe that player in a new city, a new environment might take a while to feel at home, but these guys travel for a living and they only have to concentrate for about 4-5 ABs (so 5-10 minutes?) every 24 hours.

      • http://profile.yahoo.com/SNN6P3ZHTDDRFNWCT6X2TOFVHQ Dr. Rockso

        If that were true, then steady lineups and lineup position would not matter.  Mattingly could draw names from a hat each day (which sometimes I just wonder).  Each spot has a traditional role and that role is tweaked based on each team’s actual lineup and needs, as well as the hitter that immediately precede and follow each batter.  Granted, it’s not a choreographed offense like football, but to say that there is no teamwork involved is ludicrous. 

        • Anonymous

          First of all, lineup order is not teamwork.  It’s merely a sequence of individual actions. 

          Second, yes, I firmly believe that 162 random draws of lineup order would produce roughly the same number of runs over the course of a season than 162 carefully constructed lineups with the notion of traditional “roles” in mind, provided the best hitters were in the pool.  In fact, I don’t need to believe it – I know it. People have studied this.  Simulations have been run.  Lineup order has essentially no effect.  There is some advantage to having high SLG guys up with high OBP guys on base in front of them, but that is mostly wiped out by the tradeoffs between power and OBP and by teh constant turnover the batting order.  The most important thing for an offense is that the best hitters get the most chances and the worst hitters get the fewest.

          Bill James also showed a long tiem about that “protection” in the lineup is , on average, a myth.  Of course it could matter in a specific circumstance, especially to explain intentional walks, but over the long haul, it doesn’t matter.

          What does matter is matchups, especially platoon advantages.  For example, whatever the batting order, the Dodgers best lineup against LHP should not include James Loney or Shane Victorino (or, most years, Andre Either), but against RHP, they should all be in there.

    • Anonymous

      In what way does a consistent line-up help as Jon asked below?

      • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=713935344 Jason Ungar

        my personal opinion is that it dosen’t and I agree with GoBears. I do wonder though about having a consistent 2 hole hitter. Only cause that spot is generally asked to do things maybe other spots in the order would not be asked to do. Even saying that, these guys are all pros and should be able to hit wherever whenever. 

  • Anonymous

    Well the Dirty Snakes +44 in run differential really jumps out at me – they’re only 2.5 back, which is nothing, especially with the way Dodgers and Giants are currently playing. It would not surprise me at all if the Dbacks were to take the division.
     Even with a healthy Panda and the addition of Pence, I believe the Dodgers have a better offense than the Hated Ones. Starting rotation has a lot of *if’s* on both Dodgers and Giants – will Cap and Harang be able to come close to thier 1st halves? how will Lilly fare coming back? Will Lincecum continue to flounder? Will Bum and Vogelsong keep up the good work or fade? I really think Dodgers will pick up another starter this month like Ned has done in the past.
     All that said, I predict the Dodgers taking the division because, well, I’m damned sure not going to predict the Giants to beat us, and Arizona? C’mon, how long they been around? Aren’t they still considered an expansion team? They got no business beating out the DODGERS fercryinoutloud!

    • Anonymous

       I don’t think the run differential means much in this case – it would be very different with a healthy Kemp in the lineup all year, not to mention additions like Hanley and Victorino.

  • http://twitter.com/nrmnbates Eric Enders

    I’m still waiting for the next win to clear waivers.

  • Anonymous

    If I knew for sure, I’d be heading to the nearest casino sports book!

    I agree with a poster from yesterday that the Dodgers LOOK as good as anyone else on paper.  But we know that the games are played on the diamond, not paper.

  • Anonymous

    Mets have already knocked zito out, basically.  The game took about ten minutes.

  • Anonymous

    As long as the Giants keep the inconsistent Zito in the starting rotation, the Dodgers’ chances are helped.  To wit, his top of the 1st inning today vs. the Mets:

    R. Tejada grounded out to shortstop- A. Torres struck out looking- D. Wright walked- S. Hairston walked, D. Wright to second- D. Murphy hit by pitch, D. Wright to third, S. Hairston to second- J. Bay singled to shallow left center, D. Wright and S. Hairston scored, D. Murphy to second- R. Cedeno doubled to left, D. Murphy and J. Bay scored- R. Johnson grounded into fielder’s choice, R. Cedeno out at third.

    Cedeno’s double went off Cabrera’s glove and should have been caught, as noted by Giants announcer Kuiper.

    It’s 4-0 Mets after half an inning.

    • Anonymous

       In the proud tradition of SF LFers too busy contemplating their awesome OPS to pay attention to the game…

  • Alex Chavez

    looking at yesterday’s lineup I was impressed that the Snakes had 5 guys with slugging % over .450, while we had 2.  That’s a big difference.  I’ll pick them to win it.

    Hadn’t read this, sorry if already posted – from the Chicago Tribune:

    –The Dodgers honored Kirk Gibson with as bobblehead doll giveaway Tuesday. Not only does the head move on a spring, but so does his right arm, simulating Gibson’s famous fist-pump on his walkoff home run to win Game 1 of the 1988 World Series to spark a sweep. “It was a very cool thing that happened when I was here, got to experience a world championship with some great teammates,” Gibson said.

  • Anonymous

    It must kill Bochy to have to play Belt.  Crawford is pretty horrible, as well.  

    • http://underdog.typepad.com/ underdog

      Belt’s not horrible, he’s stil young too, though he’s definitely been inconsistent. Crawford’s a good glove, poor bat guy mostly. They’ve had almost as much of a weaksauce carousel at 1st as Dodgers this year. 

      • Anonymous

        weaksauce carousel, I like that.
        So in other words, the Giants should aBrandon the ship? 

        • Anonymous

          Unfortunately for the Gnats, they have no better option, and at least he’s better defensively than Huff (whom I would like to see at 2B again).

      • Anonymous

         Belt is both young and horrible.

  • Anonymous

    Well if my math is correct, a big if, we are 24 -30 since June 1. If we had not got off to such a good start where would we be now? Oh well still two more months to play better.

    BTW a belated Happy Dog Days of Summer everyone.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Felton-Suthon/1592090085 Felton Suthon

    An unreliable trio of Dodgers, Giants and Snakes – I’ll say the Snakes get the best leadership from Gibson and win the West.  Dodgers will be left to ponder a demise from 42-25.  I hope I am wrong.

  • Anonymous

    Nice note except it wasn’t a sweep. Big Mac made sure of that.

  • Anonymous

    Mets lead Giants, 5-0, after two innings.  In top of second, Zito again retired the first two batters, and then he allowed an off-field double to right by Torres and a soft single to left by Wright for the run.  Giants wasted a two-out triple by Belt (Belt?) as Crawford then struck out looking.

    • http://underdog.typepad.com/ underdog

      Have to say the Mets are doing their part to make me feel less bummed out about the Dodgers-AZ series. Though both LA and SF obviously have completely opened the door for Snakes to join the party now.   Anyway, if Giants lose today they’ll have lost 6 out of their last 7 on this homestand. 

      • Anonymous

         What do you mean “if” the Gnats lose today?

  • Anonymous

    Funny when righties figure out Zito’s curve crap.  BP to left center.

  • Anonymous

    The Giants now have both Pence and Penny.  Does that make cents?

    • Anonymous

       Way to coin a phrase!

    • Anonymous

       Now they need to entice Schilling out of retirement.  And ask him to Pound the strike zone.

      • foul tip

        Penny would be unwise to Pound the strike zone, maybe foolish…

      • Anonymous

        and get Don Money to play infield.  and Kid Nichols to pitch. 

    • Anonymous

      COTD candidate!

    • Anonymous

      I guess it is their kind of Money Ball.

    • Anonymous

      Now all they need is Schilling :)

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Jim-Hitchcock/1676059435 Jim Hitchcock

    The only part of the Olympics I have watched so far are the volleyball games with Misty May Treanor and Kerry Walsh, and their level of athletisicm is just flat out amazing, I would be totally jelly-legged after about 5 minutes of play.

    • Anonymous

      The women’s tour came through here a few years ago and we went down to the Sea Venture and watched ‘em. Seriously athletic, and a couple had thighs from rule 1.

    • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=713935344 Jason Ungar

       They really are amazing. Same with the swimmers. I’d drown like 30 seconds into a race…

  • http://www.twitter.com/ElJefedor Jeffrey Thomas III

    “The Dodgers Should Claim Cliff Lee” 
    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-dodgers-should-claim-cliff-lee/

    Thoughts?

    • Anonymous

      I wish.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=713935344 Jason Ungar

    I think the biggest wild cards in all this are Billingsley and Loney. They have to produce at levels that are acceptable (not great) moving forward. Someone needs to protect that 5 hole and Loney seems like the guy (in the past 2nd halves) who can do it. And Billz needs to pitch like a number 2. In case no one has noticed Capuano is now pitching to ERA around 5 since the all star break.  They were hitting .232 off him and his whip was 1.19 now they are hitting .295 and his WHIP has been 1.50. Let’s hope he can stop his own bleeding.

    • Anonymous

      I disagree, I think the biggest wildcards involve health. 

      Bills will be average, which is better than most here give him credit for.  Loney will be Loney.

      Cap needs to up his game, or he’ll have an obvious pejorative nickname in these parts pretty soon. 

      Thankfully, we have a better pitching staff than the Bucs, Braves and Cards if it comes to a wildcard “series”.

      • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=713935344 Jason Ungar

         I disagree, I think the biggest wildcards involve health.
        –
        Not something I disagree with at all. I think something like this is assumed.

        • Anonymous

           Sure, but it’s a related point, Cap’s deterioration (if it is a trend) means we REALLY need a healthy Lilly.

          • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=713935344 Jason Ungar

             Right! I agree! we miss him.

      • Anonymous

        “an obvious pejorative nickname”
        It doesn’t help that the last part of his last name rhymes with guano. 

      • Anonymous

        DT is actually quite favorable to Billingsley. I can not imagine how you got a different impression.

    • Anonymous

      It doesn’t look like Mattingly is going to give Loney enough atbats to help much.  His preference for Rivera troubles me.

      • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=713935344 Jason Ungar

        You know I can’t wait for Loney to be gone, but I totally agree with you here. I just hope vs righties Loney will play. It makes no sense not to play him. It’s not like our other option is better and we know his defense is not close to Loney’s.

    • Anonymous

      I agree 100% as it relates to Bills.

    • Anonymous

      I posted this before but I guess yo did not see it, Jason
      Loney career first half: 285,342,404
      Loney career 2nd half: 285,342,448
      He had 2 years with the 2nd half much better 2006 when he was sent back to AAA near the end of April and brought back near the end of July, and last season. As you can see from his career 1sthalf/2nd half splits, he has had a number of years when his 2nd half was worse than his 1st.
      Rivera has a much better 2nd half career split than 1st half; about 10% better in each of the 3 stats.

      • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_7VN5CNNJSLBZQXS3NX7DTIUTA4 jasonu

        Thanks mike. I did miss your comment. Oh well..I was trying to be positive. The numbers don’t lie though. I do recall Rivera being a much better 2nd half guy. I don’t care which guy hits. Just hit!!

  • KT

    7-1 Mets…sure glad they are helping us after we treated them so badly

  • http://veryolddodgerfan.blogspot.com/ veryolddodgerfan

    if Kemp and Kershaw play like they did last august/september the dodgers will win the division. super stars must do it or it’s not going to happen. who bats where in the lineup matters little.

    • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=713935344 Jason Ungar

       That’s a good take. Hard to disagree on that! Let’s hope!

      • http://veryolddodgerfan.blogspot.com/ veryolddodgerfan

        but they might not be enough in the playoffs with the recent starting pitching degradation. but maybe by then- are you ready- Dee could be the baseball X factor he was born to be. 

  • Anonymous

    Hard to believe the Dodgers could stink so fetidly over the past three days and still be just a half game out. 

    • Anonymous

       Until you remember that their infield is as bad as ours with the bat, and Zito and Timmy can be rookie-league pitchers on any given night.

  • Anonymous

    I pick the Dodgers by five over the Snakes, with the Gnats struggling to hold on to third. Lincescum let us down this week, but Gumbarner, Gnattcain and Zito have helped pick up the slack.

    • Anonymous

      Bumgarner is already a parody of his own nickname.  You can’t improve on that.  It would be like trying to satirize the National Enquirer.

      • Anonymous

        I miss Weekly World News – who can forget headlines like “Dracula’s Descendant Owns a Blood Bank” and “Savages Serve Queen Lizzy Roast Rat”?

  • http://twitter.com/madbeatboy Rob Carnachan

    The D-backs have the only decent offense among the three clubs, although my hope is that the Dodger offense will click and begin scoring 4-5 runs a game with the recent additions.  Even with Pence, the Giants’ offense is a joke and you can’t win with pitching alone.  So I’m thinking Arizona is the favorite unless the Dodgers start scoring runs on a consistent basis and then it’s a two team race.

  • http://twitter.com/madbeatboy Rob Carnachan

    Why did the Dodgers cut Abreu instead of Gwynn?  Of the two, I think Abreu is more valuable due to his OBP.  Gwynn has contributed virtually nothing to the team since the start of June (he was solid in April and May) and doesn’t possess the offensive tools that Abreu does.  Bobby could have been a valuable weapon off the bench.  I would have released Gwynn over Abreu.

    • Anonymous

      I agree, especially because Victorino is more or less a slightly-better Gwynn at this point.

      • http://twitter.com/madbeatboy Rob Carnachan

        Well I hope not.  I expect a lot more from Victorino — he’s a .290/15/65 type hitter with speed and good OBP.  He is far more talented offensively than Gwynn ever was.

        • Anonymous

          I think he’s a .255 guy from here on out in his career.  Just my opinion.

          I’d LOVE to see him as a platoon pitcher-switch guy, especially if Donnie is imaginative enough to get him in the game as a runner.

          • Anonymous

            I agree.  Unless he sits against LHP, which I can’t see happening.  I’ve actually been impressed that Mattingly has been willing to platoon Loney and Rivera.  Strict L-R platoons are out of fashion, but I think they’d help more than most managerial manipulations (such as batting order).

          • Anonymous

            Of course, platooning Loney and Rivera is sort of like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.  It’s making the best of a bad set of choices.

          • http://twitter.com/madbeatboy Rob Carnachan

            Have you been watching the same Victorino I have?  This guy killed the Dodgers in the ’08 and ’09 NLCSs.  He’s only 31, which means he has at least 2 more years in his offensive prime before his bat begins to slow a bit. I expect .280 or better with an OBP near .380 or so with decent power (around 15 homers a season).  In other words, Rafael Furcal-type production except with more selectivity at the plate, and consequently a higher OBP than Raffy.

          • Anonymous

            Actually, at 31, it’s likely that he’s past his prime.  Before the steroids era, most players peaked b/w 27 and 29.  31 is on the wrong part of the curve for a non-star player.  If you think Victorino will OBP .380 with 15 HRs (outside of the Philly bandbox) you’re probably going to be disappointed.

          • Anonymous

            Citizens Bank is not a bandbox. It’s basically at the median.

        • Anonymous

          VictorGwynno sounds like a hitman, but not much of a hit man. 

          • Anonymous

             Nicely done, sir!

    • Anonymous

      I think Gwynn earned his seat on the bench (in the eyes of management) by filling in for Kemp for 2 months.  Not that he was great, but Colletti is all about depth and contingency planning, and Gwynn stays in case the team needs another legit outfielder for a stretch.  Abreu’s bat is better, but he can’t move any more.  Personally, I’d cut Uribe, then Kennedy, then Gwynn, then Abreu.  Hey if we’re dreaming, Abreu’s the guy I’d want as DH in the World Series.

      The thing Colletti doesn’t seem to get is that if Gwynn is needed, the team is sunk anyway.

      • Anonymous

        I like the order : Uribe, Kennedy, Gwynn, Abreu – with an argument to be made Gwynn before Kennedy at this point – but the Dodgers are hoping for Abreu to clear waivers so they can hopefully convince him to play in the minors until September call-up time – maybe they thought Abreu was the most likely for that scenario to be able to play out.

  • http://twitter.com/hoagiebum chuck hoag

    The Dbacks looked like world beaters against us. They would be my pick right now. I very much hope that is wrong, I want the dodgers to win.

  • Anonymous

    A little “off day” catcher comparisons:

    Name                         Avg.        HR       RBI     OBP
    AJ Ellis                      .278         8           29       .393
    Carlos Santana         .234         9           41       .362
    Rod Barajas              .235         8           20       .279
    Russell Martin           .188        12          30       .307

    Our AJ is looking pretty good for a 31 yr old minor league lifer!

    • Anonymous

      For a guy hitting .188, Martin’s doing awfully well.

      • Anonymous

         Well, he does have inflated HR totals in the Bronx bandbox.

        • Anonymous

          The new Yankee Stadium isn’t as friendly to right-handed batters, though, and Matin has .301 OBP which is pretty damn good with .188 avg. Martin would be an upgrade for us at 1B.

          • Anonymous

            I expect his numbers would be no better, and perhaps significantly worse, with half his games at Dodger Stadium.

          • Anonymous

            Wonder what he would have hit in the old Yankee Stadium which was worse on RH?

          • Anonymous

             Or what he would’ve hit with better than .190 BABIP. Awful, too, that this happens in a contract year after he’s turned down an extension. It’s like the guy can’t catch a break.

  • Anonymous

    Eovaldi is getting roughed up..

  • Anonymous

    I think the Gnats have shown today that it won’t be them! (Mind you, at the moment we are not much better!!)

    • Anonymous

      One game doesn’t mean much, but the Gnats’ “offense” and deteriorating bullpen are serious issues for them.

      • Anonymous

        Our ‘offense” problems are quite similar, but it’s our starting pitching that is looking a bit shaky lately

  • Anonymous

    The Giants by three games over the DBacks. And the Dodgers, a strong third place. 

    • Anonymous

       That is unwarranted pessimism.

      • Anonymous

        No – that’s optimism from an Orange County Halo fan – the only good thing the Angels have ever done was to deny the Giants a WS win.

        • Anonymous

          Actually, it’s looking like the Anaheimers could finish third behind the Llaneros and the Atléticos.

        • KT

          ^_^

      • Anonymous

        The poster’s real name is Pollyanna.

    • Anonymous

      And the Angels come in second place to the Rangers, get the Wild Card and get bumped out of the playoffs right off the bat.

  • Anonymous

    C.J. Wilson gettin’ roughed up : 4-2 Rangers in the 2nd : Angels rotation overrated.

    • Anonymous

       Yet somehow he’s outlasted Dumpster.

  • Anonymous

    C.J. Wilson is doing his best Zito impression v. the Llaneros tonight in Dallas.

    • Anonymous

      Actually the Angels did do one other good thing (for them) – hire a former Dodger great to lead the team and show that sorry organization how to play real ball.

  • Anonymous

    Totally off topic, but does anybody know the last time that a major league had to use their so-called “emergency” catcher in a game situation?

    • Anonymous

      I don’t know, but I would hazard a guess that it happens once or twice a year for all the games in the majors. I don’t necessarily know how to search this on BBRef.

      • Anonymous

        I was wondering because of Mattingly’s (and other managers’) apparent reluctance to use their backup catcher as a pinch-hitter. The need is apparently so rare that it would seem a statistically insignificant risk.

        • Anonymous

          On the other hand, what’s the upside of having Matt Treanor hit? 

          • Anonymous

            I was thinking in general, not specifics. On the other hand, Treanor did have that game-winning pinch-hit recently.

          • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_7VN5CNNJSLBZQXS3NX7DTIUTA4 jasonu

            Vinny will talk about Women’s beach volleyball!

    • Anonymous

      I remember a game where Derrell Thomas had to catch :)

  • Anonymous

    These last two games between the Halos and the Rangers reinforces the fact that the DH and the AL are baseball’s Frankenstein’s Monster. And while Mary Shelley’s Monster did not deserve the derision heaped upon him, the DH and the AL deserve all the derision they get and then some.

  • Anonymous

    I come to praise Kennedy (relative to other Dodger bench players) not to bury him (see discussion below where the ability to reply ran out):
    Kennedy since May1; 276/347/378 note May1
    Kennedy since June 1:286/346/400
    Kennedy since July 1:342/372/526 that’s 44 PA
    The vast majority of this production was, obviously, against RHP where Mark Ellis is 204/307/239 on the season and Uribe (this is by far his good split) is 233/310/356.
    Not only does Kennedy deserve not to be cut from the team he deserves to get some playing time at 2nd base

    • Anonymous

      So, the less ABs he gets, the better he plays.  Works for me!

      • Anonymous

        fewer not less

        • Anonymous

           Mike, the school year is only a few weeks away.  Save a little for where it matters.

          • Anonymous

            your post ignored my entirely but I felt the need to reply with some criticism, that was the best I could do but it worked for me.

        • Anonymous

          I used to a be a “fewer” stickler, but I’ve since converted.  It’s not like we have an entirely different word for “more” when talking about count nouns; fewer is just one of those words that gives non-native speakers fits, and troubles even many native speakers. 
          http://www.nytimes.com/2004/05/03/opinion/03ROSE.html

        • Anonymous

           I’m with “fewer.”

    • Anonymous

      Sold!  Platoon Ellis and Kennedy too.  Oh wait, isn’t Kennedy a bad defensive 2bman?  That actually matters at 2b (unlike, say, LF).

      • Anonymous

        Ellis is the dean of second baseman.  No active player has more starts at 2b than he.

  • Anonymous

    Puig 2 for 2 so far tonight. An RBI triple in the first and a lead-off single in the 4th came around to score

  • Anonymous

    Angels bullpen circling the drain.

    • Anonymous

       For them, Brandon League would be an improvement.

  • Anonymous

    Chattanooga with no hits but 12 walks! What is the record for walks without getting a hit? Anyone know?

  • Jibin Park

    Random question on an off-day… anyone have a link to the Scully Gibson 88 World Series HR call on the web or are you forced to buy the DVD from MLB?

    • Anonymous

       http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SLexiZHy9wI

      @ 2:32.  Posted by ‘ktlasports’, so should be legit.

      • Anonymous

        Re-watching the Gibson trot, it’s interesting to note that his teammates mobbed him at home plate, but did not attack him the way they do these days.  Probably because they could have broken him.  If the Kendrys Morales accident didn’t stop this inane practice, what will?

        • Anonymous

           Mike Trout is having his first legal drink next week, so it isn’t like we’re filtering for maturity.

        • Anonymous

          Although Morales did it all on his lonesome and it wasn’t the mob’s fault in that particular case.

  • Anonymous

    Does anyone have statistics on which pitch (of a batter’s sequence, first,second, third, etc) renders the most homeruns? My gut feeling is it is the first pitch. Several years ago when Matt Kemp was great one week and terrible the next, I remember Vinnie quoting a statistic that he was hitting about .400 when he hit the first pitch, much, much lower if he hit lower in the count. Most Dodger batters seem to take two strikes before they swing at a marginal pitch. I understand the wear out the pitcher part but taking good pitches and being forced to swing at bad ones is not conducive to good hitting in my book.

    • http://www.dodgerthoughts.com/ Jon Weisman

       http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&year=2012&lg=MLB#count

  • http://www.dodgerthoughts.com/ Jon Weisman

    NPUT