Glancing at the Dodger starting rotation of 2014 and beyond (Hola, Julio)

Forgive me for getting ahead of myself here, but the Ricky Nolasco trade interests me as much for what it might mean for future seasons as it does for the current one.

I imagine the Dodgers will re-sign the newly acquired Southern California native, who is eligible to be a free agent after this season, if he does half-decently. Assuming Los Angeles parts ways with Chris Capuano and Ted Lilly by Veterans Day, the Dodgers would greet 2014 featuring Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Nolasco in the first four spots of the starting roation, with Josh Beckett and Stephen Fife among the contenders for the fifth slot. (Hint: Ned Colletti doesn’t figure to want to settle for those two.)

But it could get more fun as springtime progresses, if and when Chad Billingsley (a year removed from Tommy John surgery in April) and Zach Lee (2.79 ERA, 1.121 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 with Double-A Chattanooga) enter the mix. Heck, maybe even someone like a Ross Stripling (2.29 ERA, 1.039 WHIP, 8.6 K/9 with Chattanooga) or a Rob Rassmussen (2.42 ERA, 1.074 WHIP, 8.5 K/9) gets run up the flagpole.

All that aside, I’ll admit that my biggest future question about the Dodger starting rotation is whether Julio Urias will still be a teenager when he arrives in Los Angeles. Urias is so young, he was born August 12, 1996 – the second anniversary of the shutdown of the 1994 baseball season (I was supposed to take my then-girlfriend to the game that night) – giving him three years and change to become a teen team player. He is the youngest pitcher in the Midwest League in decades, and though he initially wasn’t meant to stay there, it’s been hard to kick him out.

The 16-year-old from Mexico has a 2.78 ERA, 1.268 WHIP and 10.6 K/9 with Single-A Great Lakes, for whom Lee – the Dodgers’ No. 1 pitching prospect entering this year – had a 3.47 ERA, 1.220 WHIP and 7.5 K at age 19 in 2011. If Lee is on track for a mid-2014 arrival in the majors (notwithstanding a potential cup of coffee this September), Urias could realistically hit Dodger Stadium before his 20th birthday in 2016.

Like I said, I’m getting ahead of myself.  Just having fun thinking about it.

For perspective, Clayton Kershaw had a 2.77 ERA, 1.253 WHIP and 12.4 K/9 with Great Lakes at age 19 in 2007. He was in the majors one year later, two months after turning 20. Urias is arguably the Dodgers’ best pitching prospect in the seven years since they drafted Kershaw, the gold standard.

  • Anonymous

    Kershaw didn’t debut at Great Lakes until age 19 in 2007: ERA was 2.77, 1.253 WHIP, 12.4 K/9.

    Those 2006 numbers were in the Rookie Gulf Coast League.

    • http://www.dodgerthoughts.com/ Jon Weisman

      Fixed.

      • Anonymous

        I posted this Kershaw/Urias comp at TBLA yesterday. It’s mindblowing.

        Kershaw (age 19): 32 IP, 26 H, 21 BB, 45 K, 3.60 ERA (First 7 starts)
        Urias (age 16): 32.1 IP, 28 H, 13 BB, 38 K, 2.78 ERA (First 8 starts)

        Both at the same level: Low-A Great Lakes

        • J.R.

          HOLY….. The only thing keeping Urias from getting a fast track is his age. If they increase his innings in a healthy way, they have the gem of the next wave.

  • http://www.dodgerthoughts.com/ Jon Weisman

    I seem to be in a bad streak of making mistakes. It’s really supremely irritating.

  • Anonymous

    I’d rather see Nolasco take Capuano’s turn in the rotation over Fife’s.

  • http://www.dodgerthoughts.com/ Jon Weisman

    NPUT

  • Anonymous

    Urias is scary, because it is almost unknown territory figuring how to increase his work load!