Dodger Thoughts

Jon Weisman's outlet for dealing psychologically with the Los Angeles Dodgers, baseball and life

Page 281 of 381

A world of laughter, a world of tears

It’s a little funny to end a night at the Happiest Place on Earth and find you’ve been missing the Greatest Night in Baseball History.

Wow.

I will admit I saw .108-hitting Dan Johnson on MLB Gameday hit the game-tying homer in Tampa Bay on my phone just after the parade on Main Street ended, but otherwise, I’ll leave the coverage of the night’s events to those who saw them. I hope you were among them.

In the meantime, congrats to Matt Kemp on his 39/40, MVP season, congrats to Kenley Jansen on his MLB-record 16.1 strikeouts per nine innings, congrats to the Dodgers for finishing their season stunningly strong (and without a bad taste in our mouths from another final-inning collapse) with a 7-5 victory tonight in Arizona, congrats to Dee Gordon, Jerry Sands, James Loney and Ted Lilly for their rip-roaring Septembers, and a laurel and hearty handshake to Eugenio Velez, the new Sheriff of Rock Ridge.

Thanks to everyone for reading and commenting and being part of the Dodger Thoughts family this season, from near and from far — it was, as always, a pleasure — and get ready for the offseason. It all starts Thursday.

Arizona’s two-out, none-on, six-run 10th unprecedented

000 000 100 5–6
000 000 100 6–7

From Elias Sports Bureau, via ESPN Stats and Information:

Ryan Roberts hit a walkoff grand slam with the Diamondbacks down by three runs in the 10th inning. Roberts is just the fourth player in MLB history to hit a walkoff grand slam in extra innings with his team down three runs.

Ryan Roberts ARI 2011
Jason Giambi NYY 2002
Roger Freed STL 1979
Babe Ruth NYY 1925

It was the second walkoff grand slam in team history. The first was May 9, 2000, also against the Dodgers. Damian Miller hit it off Orel Hershiser, with the game tied at 7 in the bottom of the 12th.

The Diamondbacks came back from a five-run deficit to win the game in the bottom of the 10th. The rally started with none on and two outs. This is the first time a team has ever performed such a feat in an extra-inning game.

The last time a team came back from at least five runs down with two outs to win was July 28, 2001 when the Pirates came back from down six and two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning against the Astros. Coincidentally, this game ended on a walkoff grand slam as well, by Brian Giles.

Bob Timmermann found this boxscore of a game in which the Pirates scored six in the bottom of the 11th after allowing five in 1991, though that rally didn’t start with two out.

The home run allowed by Javy Guerra was only the second of his career in 46 2/3 innings, and led to his second blown save in 22 opportunities.

* * *

Even now that his season is over, Hiroki Kuroda, who pitched six shutout innings with five strikeouts and no walks, hasn’t admitted to knowing whether he will come back to the Dodgers next year, writes Tony Jackson of ESPNLosAngeles.com. He finished the year with a 3.07 ERA, and in four years with the Dodgers has had a 3.48 ERA in 693 innings.

… “No question,” Dodgers manager Don Mattingly said. “It would be something where you would have to find a guy, somebody who would be able to do what he does. That would be somebody who takes the ball and keeps you in games. He knows what he is doing, and he has been good for this team. Different guys watch what he does and the way he works. Obviously the language barrier keeps him from being able to relate verbally, but his work ethic and the way he goes about his business is something our other guys see and learn from.”

General manager Ned Colletti has let Kuroda know he wants him back, and he plans to let him know again Wednesday, before the Dodgers play their season finale. Colletti said he won’t assume Kuroda isn’t coming back “until we know that he isn’t.”

There is one scenario that is possible but not necessarily conceivable, that being free agency could take Kuroda to another major league team. There were a handful of them in on him when he initially signed with the Dodgers, but when he re-signed with them last winter, there weren’t. Even if other teams have interest, there won’t be this time, either.

The simple fact is, the only competition the Dodgers (81-79) will have for Kuroda’s services are the Carp. And that competition will be decided by no other factor than Kuroda’s whim, because the small-market Carp aren’t in a position to offer him anything close to what the Dodgers undoubtedly will. Based on two casual conversations I had with two Japanese reporter friends this week, it sounds as if the Carp probably can’t give him more than the equivalent of $2 million to $3 million.

Kuroda did tell an assemblage of Japanese reporters after the game — he speaks with them separately because he uses Nimura for his U.S. media interviews — that in addition to Colletti, several teammates have encouraged him to stay as well. …

* * *

  • Jackson reports that the Dodgers will retain their entire coaching staff for 2012. That’s great news, especially in the case of Davey Lopes, who seemed to have such a positive effect on Matt Kemp, among others.
  • Don Mattingly kept Kemp in the No. 3 spot of the batting order rather than moving him up in an attempt to boost his stats and award chances, telling Randy Hill of the Press-Enterprise, “It didn’t feel right” to make the switch.

Season’s partings

The offseason was calling, and I needed to answer.

It was Back to School Night tonight at my eldest kids’ elementary school, so I missed the first part of tonight’s Dodger game. Then, when we got home, the place was a mess, the two big kids were hopped up on Wii, our youngest had a stomachache. And this was all before we found out he stuck a tiny bead up his nose.

Before I became a parent, I used to hate to see the baseball season end. I recall watching the Marlins-Indians World Series back in ’97 (I’m not looking the details up, but I think I’ve got ’em right) in my bachelor apartment – Game 7, extra innings, a thrilling, exhausting night, long after the Dodgers had bid farewell to the year – and being in disbelief that there wasn’t more coming the next day, let alone the next year.

Now, the offseason comes as a relief. An exhale. It’s not that I have stopped enjoying the game, but it really takes the pressure off when the Dodgers pack it up. (It’s not that I don’t watch any postseason games, but I can watch as much or as little as I want, completely passively.) I’m pulled in so many different directions that it’s nice to have one of them release me.

Especially now. My kids haven’t been at their best lately. When you’re already questioning your parenting as much as I was today, you don’t feel good about parking yourself in front of the TV and the computer before their bedtime.

So don’t tell my bosses, but even though I knew I had plans Wednesday evening that would prevent me from seeing the Dodgers’ final game of the season, I didn’t turn tonight’s game on. Not until the last kid was asleep, not until my wife and I scarfed down a 9:15 p.m. meal of McDonald’s while watching “New Girl,” not until I had spent another halfhour talking to my wife about how out of control things seemed.

The game should have been over by the time I had lumbered upstairs, where I planned to put the finishing touches on a post I have planned for Thursday, the first day of Dodger winter, but according to MLB Gameday on my cellphone, it was the 10th inning. And even then, I wasn’t going to turn the game on – the only reason I did was that I realized after a few moments that this would be my last chance to hear Vin Scully for the rest of the year.

The first play I saw was a baseball that hit, in rapid succession, the swinging bat of A.J. Ellis, the right-field wall at Arizona’s Chase Field and the face of Diamondbacks rightfielder Justin Upton.

Upton slumped as the ball ricocheted away from him. He had suffered a concussion, I believe, thanks to a Tim Lincecum pitch Sunday, and what I gathered is that it was all he could do not to curl up into the fetal position. But Ellis was running, and the ball was rolling, and Upton realized after a palpable few seconds that the play hadn’t stopped. He had to get up and keep going.

Ellis made it to third base with a triple (a career first, I’d predict, or maybe his second – but again, I’m not looking it up), driving in two runs to give the Dodgers a 6-1 lead in the 10th inning. Upton was walked off the field to the Arizona clubhouse, where he’ll essentially remain, I suspect, until the National League Division Series begins.

I stuck with Vin for the remainder of the game, which went not completely unlike the 4+1 game from five years ago. Javy Guerra, who had been warming up before Ellis’ triple, sat down. Blake Hawksworth, in the role of Jon Adkins, entered in Guerra/Trevor Hoffman’s place, but got in trouble – starting with two out and the bases empty – when he was late covering first base on a grounder to James Loney. Guerra ended up coming into the game anyway, like Hoffman did, and it ended with a game-winning grand slam by Ryan Roberts.

Los Angeles had scored five runs in the 10th inning and lost. And also, this: Matt Kemp had entered the game with a three-homer lead on Prince Fielder for 2011, and had been tied.

The Dodgers have played too well of late and Kemp has played too well all season for me to have any ill feelings about tonight’s result. It’s just one of those things, and honestly, the timing could have been a lot worse. And also, I’ve just had too many other worries. It’s still strange for me to say, but I feel the Dodgers have given me more pleasure than I had a right to expect this summer. With Kemp and Kershaw in particular, it’s been a season with heights that I’m not sure I’ll experience again for a long time.

I need to get my parenting legs back, though, and I’m hopeful the changing of the seasons will help.

Bryan Stow continues to improve

More encouraging news on Bryan Stow: His family says he is getting stronger and more responsive.

… On Friday Bryan said something that perfectly fit the moment, and really describes these past few days. We got the OK to take Bryan outside for the first time in almost 6 months. He was moved to a cardiac chair and we went out to a secluded patio. Bonnie asked Bryan how it felt to be outside. Bryan, sitting in the sun, with his eyes closed said, “It’s magical.”

Did Hiroki Kuroda decide the AL wild card?

When Hiroki Kuroda chose not to waive his no-trade clause at the end of July, it left one of his leading suitors, the Boston Red Sox, scrambling.

The Red Sox ended up picking up Erik Bedard from Seattle in the three-team, seven-player deal that sent Tim Federowicz and Stephen Fife to Los Angeles and Trayvon Robinson to Seattle. And then … well, let Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com tell the story.

Tonight’s forecast: Gloom.

And that’s just the weather (scattered thundershowers, 60 percent chance of rain).

It isn’t much better for the Red Sox, who are left with no choice Tuesday but to rely on Erik Bedard, a sore-legged pitcher whose appetite for the big stage has been openly questioned by a former employer, to keep them alive for a playoff spot that should never have been in jeopardy. …

Bedard came back from a 16-day absence because of a strained lat and sore knee last week against the Orioles and lasted just 2 2/3 innings, needing a staggering 51 pitches to record those two outs in the third. The Red Sox will need much more from him Tuesday night.

Boston has surrendered a 10-game lead in the American League wild card race, thanks in large part to a 7.26 ERA for their starting pitchers in September, Edes notes.

Kuroda has a 3.29 ERA since the trade deadline, though it’s 4.18 in a September that has seen him have neck problems. Perhaps going to Boston wouldn’t have helped, but I’m guessing the Red Sox would be happy to have him pitching on the East Coast tonight instead of for the Dodgers in Arizona.

* * *

  • I’m a little concerned with the talk that Don Mattingly might have Matt Kemp bat leadoff to increase his chances (rather slightly, I’d say) of reaching 40 homers and 40 steals. It could spread the impression for potential Most Valuable Player voters that Kemp’s numbers were more of a gimmick in games that weren’t serious. Probably doesn’t matter much either way, but I’d leave Kemp at No. 3 and take his chances there.
  • Meanwhile, when they talk about a player’s body in “Moneyball,” I don’t think they mean this.
  • David Schoenfield of ESPN’s Sweet Spot asks if Kemp is having the greatest season ever by a Los Angeles Dodger position player.

    … According to Baseball-Reference WAR, his season ranks only behind Adrian Beltre’s 48-homer season in 2004, and just ahead of Mike Piazza’s 1997. In fact, forget limiting it to just Los Angeles. The only Brooklyn Dodger seasons that rate higher are two from Jackie Robinson, in 1949 and 1951.

  • Today is the 75th anniversary of longtime Dodger manager Walter Alston’s one and only at-bat in the majors, writes Chris Jaffe of the Hardball Times.

    … on Sept. 27, 1936, he was just a young 24-year-old hoping to get his shot. He was a bit old for a prospect because he’d gone to college and only went pro after graduating.

    In the minors Alston showed promise, hitting over .300 with power in the St. Louis farm system, but there was a big problem. He played first base for a team that already had Johnny Mize. Four times Alston would lead his league in homers, but there was no place for him in the majors. And the more the years went by, the less the aging Alston seemed like a prospect. …

  • Russ Mitchell is having season-ending wrist surgery today, the Dodgers said. He is expected to play winter ball.
  • A tight hamstring is expected to keep Rafael Furcal on the sidelines for the final two games of the Cardinals’ playoff push.

Kemp looks like Double Crown winner, Dodgers clinch winning season

And so, reluctantly, I shift gears away from the Triple Crown.

Matt Kemp hit a mammoth 38th home run in the first inning for the Dodgers in their 4-2 victory over Arizona tonight, putting him one up on Albert Pujols in homers and eight ahead of Prince Fielder and Ryan Howard in RBI with two games to play. But he made three subsequent outs, lowering his batting average to .324 while Jose Reyes (.33396) was going 3 for 4 and Ryan Braun (.33393) hit a pinch-hit double. (How’s that for a close race, by the way?)

It’s not impossible for Kemp to come back in the batting race, in the sense that he could go something like 10 for 10 in a 20-inning game Tuesday, while the other guys had big giant 0-fers, but it’s getting a bit dicey.

A 40/40 season of homers and steals, on the other hand, remains very much alive, as does of course the National League Most Valuable Player trophy.

And then there’s the chance of having the best non-Tommy Davis season for RBI in Los Angeles Dodger history. As of now:

153 Tommy Davis, 1962
125 Shawn Green, 2001
124 Mike Piazza, 1997
123 Matt Kemp, 2011
121 Adrian Beltre, 2004

* * *

Dana Eveland bounced back from two sub-par starts to shut out Arizona over 5 2/3 innings, with Josh Lindblom striking out Paul Goldschmidt for the final out in the sixth to strand three baserunners. And Justin Sellers took a break from a 7-for-63 slump (with six walks) by singling home a run in the seventh inning to give Los Angeles a 4-0 lead.

Then, kookiness kame.

In the eighth, Nathan Eovaldi walked the bases loaded with one out in his first action since September 17. Scott Elbert relieved, and a run scored on a passed ball by A.J. Ellis. After Elbert issued the fourth walk of the inning, Mike MacDougal relieved and got an eight-pitch strikeout of Goldschimdt, but then delivered walk No. 5 (“That’s called a low five,” Vin Scully said) to Geoff Blum for the second run. Finally, Dodger nemesis Gerardo Parra flied out to end the inning.

With Javy Guerra pitching in the ninth, Dee Gordon (2 for 4) threw away John McDonald’s grounder for an error, then juggled a potential double-play toss from Sellers and was lucky to a) get a force and b) not get hurt by the oncoming McDonald.

Ryan Roberts did something rather unexpected, trying to bunt for a base hit, and was thrown out easily for the second out. Aaron Hill popped to Kemp in center, and the Dodgers had their victory.

The 2011 Los Angeles Dodgers have done something few, if anyone, expected this summer. With two games to play and an 81-78 record, they have clinched a winning record.

September 26 game chat

Ryan Braun, and this is understandable, is getting a day (or at least a start) off before the playoffs. So unless he pinch-hits, his batting average should remain at .333. Jose Reyes grounded out in his first at-bat to fall to .330. Matt Kemp is at .324 as play begins tonight.

Cliff Lee gave up a first-inning home run tonight, meaning that to catch Clayton Kershaw for the ERA title, he now needs to pitch into the 15th inning for the Phillies without giving up any more runs.

Dodgers: ‘It gets better’

The Dodgers have recorded an “It Gets Better” video. I like seeing the organization step out in this territory.

“The Dodgers have been outspoken advocates for equality and against all societal prejudices dating back to the days of Jackie Robinson,” Dodgers senior vice president of public affairs Howard Sunkin said in a statement. “Our club wholeheartedly supports an end to bullying and violence against LGBT youth. There is zero tolerance for violence of any kind for any reason in our community.”

(More information on It Gets Better here.)

Matt Kemp by the numbers

This statistical run-down comes courtesy of Mark Simon with ESPN Stats and Information.

With 3 games left in the season, Matt Kemp has a slim chance to be the first Triple Crown winner since Carl Yastrzemski won it with the 1967 Red Sox. He would be the first Triple Crown winner from a National League team since Joe Medwick of the 1937 Cardinals.

Kemp trails in the batting race by nine points and needs a hot streak to have a chance to win.

To win the Triple Crown, a player must lead his league in batting average, home runs, and RBI. Kemp leads the NL in RBI and is closing in on the lead in batting average and home runs.

Past Triple Crown winners

Carl Yastrzemski; 1967 Red Sox  (MVP)
Frank Robinson; 1966 Orioles  (MVP)
Mickey Mantle; 1956 Yankees  (MVP)
Ted Williams; 1947 Red Sox  (Not MVP
Ted Williams; 1942 Red Sox  (Not MVP)
Joe Medwick; 1937 Cardinals  (MVP)
Lou Gehrig; 1934 Yankees  (Not MVP)
Chuck Klein; 1933 Phillies  (Not MVP)
Jimmie Foxx; 1933 Athletics  (MVP)
Rogers Hornsby; 1925 Cardinals  (MVP)
Rogers Hornsby; 1922 Cardinals  (No MVP awarded)
>> All members of Baseball Hall of Fame

Current NL Leader Boards

BATTING AVERAGE- Ryan Braun, Milwaukee, .333; Jose Reyes, New York, .331; Matt Kemp, Los Angeles, .324; Hunter Pence, Philadelphia, .313; Joey Votto, Cincinnati, .312

HOME RUNS-Matt Kemp, Los Angeles, 37; Albert Pujols, St. Louis, 37; Prince Fielder, Milwaukee, 35; Dan Uggla, Atlanta, 35; Mike Stanton, Florida, 34; Ryan Braun, Milwaukee, 33; Ryan Howard, Philadelphia, 33

RBI-Matt Kemp, Los Angeles, 119; Ryan Howard, Philadelphia, 115; Prince Fielder, Milwaukee, 114; Ryan Braun, Milwaukee, 110; Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado, 105

Matt Kemp – Current 2011 NL Ranks

BA .325 3rd (Ryan Braun, .333)
HR 37 T-1st
RBI 119 1st

Three games to go

The Dodgers have 3 games left with the Diamondbacks, all on the road. This could be advantageous to Kemp, because it ensures the Dodgers 9 innings of at-bats per game (instead of 8).

Kemp is hitting .310 with 5 HR and 16 RBI in 15 games against the Diamondbacks this season.

Pitching Probables, Next 3 Days:

Monday: Daniel Hudson; Kemp is 2-8 career vs Hudson
Tuesday: Jarrod Parker; 1st round pick in 2007 making MLB debut
Wednesday: Joe Saunders; Kemp has .333 BA, 3 HR, 9-27 career vs Saunders

Read More

What watch? Ten watch? Such watch

Hope you know what the headline above refers to.

  • Every National League batting race scenario you can imagine is provided by Eric Stephen of True Blue L.A. My personal nightmare: Matt Kemp gets 10 hits over the next three games, but Albert Pujols homers in his last at-bat.
  • Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports has two good pieces today, on McCourt v. Selig and on Kemp very much not v. Newcombe.
  • Jay Jaffe of Baseball Prospectus has a good piece on Kemp, Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers. Among other things, he notes that when “you factor in opponent quality and ballpark, (Kershaw) has done better against a slightly tougher slate of hitters than Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee” — a reminder that just because Kershaw has gotten to pitch against the San Francisco and San Diego offenses this year doesn’t mean he’s had it easy.
  • Orel Hershiser and Eddie Murray make Chris Jaffe’s “Ten worst career-ending performances of all time” list at the Hardball Times.

Kershaw wraps up Cy Young-worthy campaign


Kent C. Horner/Getty ImagesClayton Kershaw allowed a walk, a single, a double, a triple and a home run in 7 1/3 innings.

Having provided joy to the world, the fishes and the deep blue sea all season long, Clayton Kershaw can expect a little joy for himself: the National League Cy Young Award.

If Jeremiah was a bullfrog and Orel was a bulldog, Clayton is the whole hog.

Kershaw put the final touches on his portfolio today, finishing his 2011 campaign with a 2.28 ERA and 248 strikeouts, both of which lead the league, while winning his 21st game in the Dodgers’ 6-2 victory over San Diego – all but ensuring himself the pitcher’s triple crown.

(It was the Dodgers’ 80th victory of the year, putting them one away from a winning season.)

Today for Philadelphia, Roy Halladay pitched six shutout innings, striking out three, to finish at 19-6, 2.35 with 220 strikeouts. Cliff Lee, scheduled to pitch Monday for the Phillies, has allowed 60 earned runs in 226 2/3 innings for a 2.38 ERA with 232 strikeouts. He needs 16 strikeouts to match Kershaw, and would need to pitch at least 10 2/3 shutout innings to beat him for the major-league ERA title.

So short of Ian Kennedy making a relief appearance against the Dodgers on Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday and stealing a 22nd win, the triple crown belongs to Kershaw, who also leads the National League in park-adjusted ERA.

Meanwhile, though he didn’t reach 250 strikeouts and catch Justin Verlander for the major-league lead, Kershaw finished 2011 with the most strikeouts in Los Angeles Dodger history in a season since Sandy Koufax retired (per the Dodger press notes):

382 Sandy Koufax, 1965
317 Sandy Koufax, 1966
306 Sandy Koufax, 1963
269 Sandy Koufax, 1961
251 Don Drysdale, 1963
248 Clayton Kershaw, 2011

* * *

Kershaw retired the first eight batters he faced today on 29 pitches, striking out four of the eight, before an inexplicable walk to Padres pitcher Cory Luebke, but Kershaw struck out Cameron Maybin to end the third inning.

In the fourth, Kershaw allowed his first hit, a line single by Nick Hundley, but immediately picked him off – Kershaw’s 10th pickoff of the season, according to Vin Scully.

Chris Park/APKershaw is congratulated as he leaves the field for the last time in 2011.

The Padres finally scored against Kershaw in the fifth inning, when Aaron Cunningham hit a no-doubt homer with the bases empty and two out in the fifth. It was Cunningham’s third homer this season and sixth in his career.

Aaron Miles made two plays to take away San Diego hits, highlighted by a spectacular diving stop of a second-inning shot by Orlando Hudson that would have been a double. In the fifth, Miles charged less gracefully on a slow Alberto Gonzalez grounder and threw late to first, but the Dodgers’ got the generous call.

Retiring the side in order in the sixth and seventh innings on 25 tosses, Kershaw entered the final two innings having thrown only 82 pitches. But in the eighth, the two players robbed by Miles got their revenge. Hudson got his overdue double to lead off the inning, then scored the Padres’ second run on Gonzalez’s triple one out later to cut the Dodgers’ lead to 6-2.

Don Mattingly came to the mound, and we bid farewell to Kershaw for 2011.

Kenley Jansen relieved Kershaw, and just as he did against the Giants on Tuesday, he struck out both batters he faced. That put Jansen at 16.10 strikeouts per nine innings this season, making him at this point the all-time single-season record holder in that category with three games remaining in 2011. Jansen has struck out 31 of his past 49 batters, including 31 of his past 37 outs.

Javy Guerra pitched the ninth with a four-run lead, so he didn’t get a save, but he did preserve the victory for the magnificent Kershaw.

* * *

On the Triple Crown and Most Valuable Player scene, Ryan Braun continued to make it a challenge for Matt Kemp. Braun went 2 for 3, including his 33rd home run, in Milwaukee’s rout of Florida, boosting his batting average to .333 and giving anyone leaning toward him for MVP that much more ammunition.

Jeffrey Phelps/APRyan Braun went 5 for 10 with a walk and 14 total bases in three games against Florida.

Jose Reyes, meanwhile, went 2 for 4 to improve his batting average to .331.

Kemp got off to a good start, with a double to the left-center gap that raised his average to .326 and drove home Jamey Carroll with RBI No. 120.  But then fortune stopped smiling.

  • In the third inning, Kemp hit a sky-high ball to the warning track in right-center field that Scully said would have been a home run in Dodger Stadium.
  • In the fifth, Kemp reached first on a slow roller that went under the glove of Padres third baseman Alberto Gonzalez, a ball that the official scorer seemed to correctly call an error, though some tweets from the press box indicated that the decision would be reconsidered after the game.
  • In the seventh, Kemp struck out against reliever Luke Gregerson on three pitches, leaving him .008 behind Braun.
  • In the ninth, granted an extra at-bat when Rod Barajas hit an eighth-inning home run to give the Dodgers a 6-1 lead, Kemp struck out again.

Kemp did come away with the 18th season of at least 120 RBI in Dodger history.

It’s not over for Kemp, however, as far as the Triple Crown. An 0 for 4 from Braun would knock three points off his batting average in one day – if Kemp can rev up his bat in Arizona, he’s back in business.

Triple Crown and Cy Young watch

Jose Reyes (.32950)
Roy Halladay
Phillies at Mets, 11:10 a.m.

Ryan Braun (.33092)
Marlins at Brewers, 11:10 a.m.

Albert Pujols (37 homers)
Cubs at Cardinals, 11:15 a.m.

Matt Kemp (.32534, 37 homers)

Update: Ryan Braun is 2 for 3 so far today, including his 33rd homer, and is now hitting .333.

Padres shut out Dodgers, Kemp 1 for 4

Not that I’m watching every Ryan Braun or Jose Reyes at-bat to see how close their outs were to becoming hits, but Matt Kemp has missed some close ones this weekend in San Diego.

The latest came in the sixth inning tonight, when Kemp hit a 400-foot drive to center that was caught at the wall – a vintage Petco Park out.

Braun, 2 for 3 with Milwaukee, leapfrogged Jose Reyes in the batting title race and put a hair more distance tonight between himself and Kemp, who singled in the first inning but was hitless in his final three at-bats, the last one a 4-6-3 double play (hit to Orlando Hudson, positioned almost directly behind second base) against Padres closer Heath Bell, who finished off San Diego’s 3-0 victory over the Dodgers.

After no-hitting the Dodgers for six innings in July, Aaron Harang pitched shutout ball against Los Angeles for eight tonight. In his past 14 innings against the team, Harang has allowed no runs, three hits and three walks with 11 strikeouts.

James Loney, Jerry Sands and Dee Gordon had the Dodgers’ other hits. Sands, interestingly, had his 15th double – putting him fifth on the team for the entire season despite barely having 200 plate appearances.

* * *

In his final start of 2011, Chad Billingsley had a one-hit shutout for 4 2/3 innings, then with two runners on, threw a 66 mph curveball to Will Venable that shocked Vin Scully with its lollipopness. Venable delivered an RBI single, Hudson followed with another RBI single and then a Tim Federowicz throwing error brought home a third Padre run. Billingsley hit Cameron Maybin in the back with a 3-2 pitch before getting out of the inning on a Chase Headley groundout.

Something to remember before throwing Billingsley under a bus, besides the ongoing worry (at least on my end) that there’s a physical problem: A year ago at this time, Kemp was wrapping up a disappointing year. People do bounce back. Billingsley had a rough second half in 2009, and came back strong in 2010 with a 3.57 ERA.

That being said, the decline in Billingsley’s strikeout stuff remains distressing.

September 24 game chat

Once more unto the breach, dear friends …

  • Ramona Shelburne of ESPNLosAngeles.com traces Clayton Kershaw’s development to superstar.

    … When Kershaw’s second pitch in the top of the sixth inning hit Parra on his front elbow, plate umpire Bill Welke ejected the pitcher immediately.

    The next day I asked the same veteran player who had told Kershaw it would be OK to back away from this fight whether or not Kershaw had proved something to him, whether he liked him more or less than he had the day before.

    “Neither,” the player said. “I already knew him.” …

  • Here’s an interview on YouTube with Vin Scully talking about Matt Kemp, Kershaw and more, courtesy of Marty Caswell.
  • Peter Gammons endorses Kemp for NL MVP in a long piece at MLB.com.
  • Joe Block of Dodger Talk speculates that, because of the theory of “progression to the mean,” injuries deprived Juan Uribe the opportunity to recover from his poor first half of the season.
  • Kevin Baxter of the Times runs a list of the top 10 free agents this offseason alongside the cautionary tale of the top 10 free-agent flops of last offseason.
  • John Sickels of Minor League Ball checks in on some minor-leaguers with major-league bloodlines, including one Matt Scioscia.

The myth and reality of ‘valuable’

Dear Voter:

There is no clear-cut definition of what Most Valuable means. It is up to the individual voter to decide who was the Most Valuable Player in each league to his team. The MVP need not come from a division winner or other playoff qualifier.

The rules of the voting remain the same as they were written on the first ballot in 1931:

1. Actual value of a player to his team, that is, strength of offense and defense.

2. Number of games played.

3. General character, disposition, loyalty and effort.

4. Former winners are eligible.

5. Members of the committee may vote for more than one member of a team.

Baseball Writers Association of America official site

* * *

The idea that an MVP must come from a contending team is completely invented. It is not part of the rules of the award nor its roots. Nor is it part of baseball history, unless you’d like to go back and take Ernie Banks’ MVP awards away from him.

Nevertheless, the idea persists among many that an MVP must come from a team that, at a minimum, is in the thick of a pennant race. It comes from people who believe, apparently, that if a tree falls in the woods, it does not make a sound.

Guess what.  It makes a sound.

* * *

If, instead of voting for the player with the best performance, you vote for only the player with the best performance on a potential champion, you’re arguing that anything that takes place outside the spotlight doesn’t matter.

Think of the implications of that.

I have three kids.  Sometimes I watch them play. Right now they’re playing downstairs while I type this. If one of my children does something nice for another, that is a good thing, whether I’m in the room or not.  The value is equal. To think otherwise is to send a message that your actions only matter when people are watching.

Baseball asks you to run out a ground ball even when you’re sure you’re going to be out.  It asks you to put your best effort even if you’re team is 50 games out of first place. The sport asks this, for one, because fans and TV networks have been promised this in exchange for their hard-earned money. And because it’s a belief that virtually all of us share. Do your best.

To then turn around and say that “Oh, by the way, we aren’t paying attention to you anymore, so your effort doesn’t matter,” is nonsensical.

And it’s not a matter of degree. Even though you have an adjusted OPS+ of xxx, playing on a contending team doesn’t mean you add three points, or 10 points or 24.6 points.  The value of the same performance is the same regardless of where it took place.

Sending my kids to college is so much more important to me than buying my kids the Webkinz stuffed animals they love.  Nevertheless, $10 I put away for my kids’ education is not more valuable than $20 I spend on the toy. No, $20 is more than $10.

* * *

All that being said, the idea that the Dodgers’ games have been meaningless this season is a complete fiction.

They were clearly meaningful in April and May, before anyone had broken free in the National League West.

They were also meaningful later in the season, even after the losing began. If not for Arizona’s remarkable breakthrough this season, something that no one could have guaranteed, the Dodgers’ second-half rally would have put them in the thick of the race. With five games to go in the season, the Dodgers have 79 victories, which means they still have the chance of matching their division-winning total of 2008 and surpassing the Padres’ division-winning total of 2005.

When, exactly, were the Dodgers supposed to stop trying?

But even if you concede that this team was not going to go to the playoffs, the indispensable point is this: The Dodgers have had meaning all season as an opponent.

From April through September, the Dodgers played games that mattered because winning or losing had a direct effect on the pennant races. In addition to their own postseason dreams, there were also postseason dreams for their opponents. On Tuesday, San Francisco came to Los Angeles, having won eight games in a row in making a late run for the playoffs. With two out in the first inning, Matt Kemp singled and then scored a run off Tim Lincecum in what became a 2-1 victory that severely damaged their hopes.

Then, a day after the Giants beat the Dodgers to keep their hopes alive and a day before San Francisco had a showdown series with Arizona, Kemp went 4 for 4 with three doubles and a home run in a Dodger victory that was crushing for the Giants.

You want to tell San Francisco’s fans that that didn’t count?

The Dodgers were not eliminated from postseason contention until September 17. Every game they played to that point counted for themselves. In their entire 2011 season, they will have played eight games – two against Pittsburgh, three in their current series against San Diego and three to finish the season against NL West champion Arizona – that had no bearing on the postseason (though keeping in mind they still mean something to the fans who watch).

Ryan Braun’s Milwaukee Brewers, who like the Diamondbacks clinched their division title Friday, will play five games this season that have no bearing on the postseason.

That’s a three-game difference out of 162. Three games in which Kemp’s performance mattered less to the playoff race than Braun’s.

* * *

Pressure of the pennant chase? I don’t even need to bother with this one, because Joe Posnanski already destroyed this argument:

… This line — that it’s easier to put up numbers without pennant pressure — is a lot like that. Nobody can possibly believe this. First of all, there’s the obvious flaw: If it were easier to put up numbers in non-pressure situations, then players would consistently and obviously have better years on lousy teams than they do on good ones. Does this ring even the slightest bell of truth? Does anyone believe that Derek Jeter would have put up better numbers had he played for Kansas City? Does anyone believe that Albert Pujols would be so much better if he had spent his career playing in the carefree world of the Pittsburgh Pirates? Roy Halladay was great for mediocre Blue Jays teams and is great for outstanding Phillies teams. Hank Aaron was the same great player with the same great numbers when Milwaukee won, when Milwaukee almost won, and when Milwaukee wasn’t very good at all. …

If you’ve read this blog at all you know: I’ve covered a lot of bad teams in my life. I’ve been around some good ones, too. And as far as “pressure” goes, well, from my observation, it’s not even close. There is infinitely more pressure on players on lousy teams than on good ones. Obviously, this depends on how you define pressure, but if the textbook definition of pressure is “the feeling of stressful urgency cause by the necessity of achieving something,” well, absolutely, there’s way more pressure on the lousy teams.

… Think about it: What pressure is there on players in pennant races? The pressure to win? Sure. But players come to the ballpark energized. Everyone on the team is into it. The crowd is alive and hopeful. The afternoon crackles. Anticipation. Excitement. There’s nothing in sports quite like the energy in a baseball clubhouse during a pennant race. Players arrive early to prepare. Teammates help each other. Everyone’s in a good mood. There’s a feeling swirling around: This is exactly the childhood dream. The added importance of the moment could, in theory I suppose, create extra stress. But the reality I’ve seen is precisely the opposite. The importance sharpens the senses, feeds the enthusiasm, makes the day brighter. Baseball is a long season. Anything to give a day a little gravity, to separate it from yesterday, to make it all more interesting — anything like that, I think, is much more likely to make it EASIER to play closer to one’s peak.

A losing clubhouse? Exactly the opposite. The downward pressure is enormous and overwhelming — after all, who cares? The town has moved on. A Hawaiian vacation awaits. Teammates are fighting to keep their jobs or fighting to impress someone on another team or just plain fighting. The manager might be worried about his job. The reporters are few, and they’re negative. Smaller crowds make it easier to hear the drunken critics. Support is much harder to come by, and there is constant, intense force demanding that you just stop trying so hard. After all: Why take that extra BP? You’ve got the swing down. Why study a few extra minutes of film? You’ve faced that hitter before. Why take that extra base? Why challenge him on that 3-1 pitch? Why? You’re down 9-3 anyway.

It’s absolutely AMAZING to me when a player puts up a fantastic year even when the team around him stinks. …

The Dodgers, frankly, deserve a special recognition in this category. If there were a Downward Pressure World Series, they surely would have won. With unsurpassed nightmares in the owners’ suite and a fan base in outward revolt, with numerous devotees boycotting games, with expectations for success absolutely disappearing, late summer in Los Angeles should have been the most soul-sapping time for a player in the franchise’s 54 seasons here, even more so than the 99-loss 1992 season played in the aftermath of the city’s riots.

Instead, Kemp, not to mention Clayton Kershaw and some others, bore down and did the only thing anyone can ask – be the best they can be. They were better than anyone had a right to expect.

It is, in terms of environment, easily as impressive an achievement as what the same performance would have been on a season-long contender.

* * *

I’m not saying it’s a stupid question to wonder if a player on a non-contender should get voted MVP? Even Vin Scully asked the question aloud during Friday’s Dodger broadcast.

The problem is not with the question. The problem has been with the answer.

If the answer is, “The goal is to win a championship, and any performance that does not come with a championship isn’t the most valuable,” you’re saying that Matt Kemp wasn’t valuable because Juan Uribe was terrible. Does that make any sense? “Because my next-door neighbor is a bad guy, it doesn’t matter how good I am.”

Value, clearly and cleanly, comes down to this. What would you rather have?  If you knew everything there was to know about the 2011 regular season in advance, which player would have been your first pick before Opening Day?

If you think Ryan Braun was a better player than Matt Kemp this year, vote for him.

If you think Braun was absolutely, indivisibly, incontrovertibly equal to Kemp this year, and you want to use the fact that Braun is going to the postseason as the only thing that can break the deadlock, vote for him.

But if you think Kemp was better than Braun, by a mile or a millimeter, and you vote for Braun, you’re making a mistake. You’re not upholding the values of this game or our society – you’re subverting them.

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