Dodger Thoughts

Jon Weisman's outlet for dealing psychologically with the Los Angeles Dodgers, baseball and life

Page 381 of 381

Dodgers will pick a No. 5 starter – and another, and another …

It’s risky to place too much importance on who will be the Dodgers’ No. 5 starter when the season begins, just because that role fluctuates so much. So instead of trying to predict the winner, I’m going to pursue this from another angle: truth-based fiction.

March: Josh Lindblom has a sensational spring, but the Dodgers decide there’s no way he can handle a starter’s innings from April on, without being eased into the role via the minors. Scott Elbert also shows flashes of brilliance, but the team prefers he also wet his feet in Albuquerque, where John Ely (the new one, not the old one, though both will end up with stops in Chattanooga) is slated to spend most of the year. James McDonald is penciled in early for the bullpen.  Charlie Haeger is denied meaningful innings. Russ Ortiz has one good start that generates a day’s worth of comeback stories, then implodes and is a non-factor. The longshot bids of Rule 5 Day acquisitions Carlos Monasterios and Armando Zerpa devolve into a slightly less longshot bid to become the seventh reliever.

That leaves Eric Stults. Despite his annual shutouts, the Dodgers don’t have any long-term faith in him, but with Stults out of minor-league options, they decide to give him first crack rather than throw a less experienced pitcher into the mix. The memory of McDonald’s April from last year still stings. Monasterios gets the (way) back-of-the-bullpen role, Zerpa is sent back on the Rule 5 highway, Ortiz goes to Albuquerque to find Shawn Estes’ old locker, and Haeger is released but doesn’t clear waivers.

April: Thanks to some rest-infused early season scheduling, the Dodgers don’t use a fifth starter until April 24 at Washington, an outing that finds Stults rusty but reasonably effective. He makes it through the capital city and his next start at home against Pittsburgh.

May: Before the month is out, Stults turns in the mediocre outing that confirms his limitations in the Dodgers’ eyes, and he is designated for assignment. Elbert, off to a strong start in Albuquerque, gets the callup.

June: Wear and tear on the staff — I’ll say Padilla, but it could be anyone — forces the Dodgers to bring up Lindblom to work alongside Elbert. McDonald wonders if he’ll ever be stretched out, but he becomes too valuable in the bullpen for the Dodgers to envision changing his role.

July: A four-game series in St. Louis right after the All-Star Break trashes the Dodger staff, though McDonald turns in a sterling four-inning relief stint that stops the bleeding in one game and rekindles thoughts of putting him back in the rotation. With the trade deadline approaching and the McCourt divorce case having been decided, there’s much talk about a deal. In the meantime, Ely is called upon to make a spot start, and Elbert gets a second wind after a poor stretch.

By the time the July 31 trading deadline comes, the Dodgers have a much better idea of what their starting pitching needs are. And that’s where I’m going to pause this speculation.

While few of the above plot twists might actually come true — the lack of need for a fifth starter for most of April could be enough to derail Stults’ chances of sticking, for example — the overall points are safe ones. No matter what happens in March:

1) Odds are, the Dodgers will run through several No. 5 starters.

2) Odds are, their collective performance will be good enough to allow the Dodgers to post a decent record in their outings, which is all you can really ask in a baseball world where virtually no team has a reliable No. 5 starter.

There are enough candidates for the fifth starter position that the Dodgers will have a low tolerance for failure. Unless none of them can do the job — and there’s no real reason to think all of them will fail to manage even a short hot streak — this part of the rotation will be less of a concern than some people think.

The Dodgers’ fortunes depend greatly on how their front four performs. If they can be relatively stable, the Dodger rotation will be fine — better than fine. If Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw, Hiroki Kuroda or Vicente Padilla develop a serious, prolonged problem, then the Dodgers could be in trouble.

Update: Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports tweets that Jeff Weaver has agreed to a minor-league deal with the Dodgers.

Correction: I misread the schedule somehow. The Dodgers will need a fifth starter April 11 at Florida and April 17 against San Francisco. Chalk up a couple of confidence-building victories for Stults?

Lost Final Season: Episode 1 chat

This thread is devoted to chat about Lost. Regular Dodger Thoughts chat continues in the thread above this one.

No spoilers! That includes scenes from upcoming episodes.

For your pregame reading, here’s a celebration of Friday Night Lights alongside The Wire from Brian Lowry of Variety.

And for your pregame chatting, which of the Lost characters is your favorite entering this final season?

Report: Dodgers sign Alfredo Amezaga to minor-league deal

The 32-year-old no-hit, all-field Alfredo Amezaga has entered the Dodgers’ bench race with a non-guaranteed contract. (Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com was first with this showstopping news).

Amezaga has played at least five games at every position in the lineup but pitcher. Still, he becomes a candidate to take over Mark Loretta’s emergency moundsman role.

Meanwhile, twice-baked Dodger Guillermo Mota has a minor-league deal with the Giants.

Is Ethier still ascending?

“The best is yet to come for Andre Ethier.”  That’s a tantalizing quote, one that contrasts my knee-jerk assumption that Ethier can’t possibly improve on his 2009 campaign, from Baseball HQ via Memories of Kevin Malone. There are also some new thoughts about Dodger Stadium park effects.

Elsewhere …

  • Which is more valuable, a sixth position player on the bench or a 12th pitcher? Over the past year, I’ve come to think that for teams like the Dodgers whose starters don’t go deep into games, the extra pitcher is worth more. Dave Cameron offers some interesting pro and con arguments at Fangraphs.
  • It’s the makeover moment of the year for the Dodgers: Casey Blake, beardless. I have to keep reminding myself that the $1 million donation by Blake and his wife, Abbie, to Indianola, Iowa schools is a bigger deal.  But I have spent some time wondering whether looking younger will make Blake play younger. It’s completely logical, don’ t you think?
  • Vin Scully, Jaime Jarrin, Eric Karros and Ken Levine were among those receiving honors Monday from the Southern California Sports Broadcasters Association.
  • Vin Scully Is My Homeboy is very curious about whether the Dodgers will be showcasing a “55 since ’55” patch this year.

When are you?

Transported in time, transported to happiness?

If you were to be time-shifted to any year in Dodger history, when would you pick?

Two conditions: 1) You wouldn’t know if you would ever come back to the present. 2) You wouldn’t have access to any gambling venues. You’d be lost on your Dodger island.

Would you go, knowing what had already happened, away from your family and friends and present-day life, just to experience it?

Reed Johnson signing is official

Reed Johnson and the Dodgers have completed their deal for a one-year contract, the team announced tonight.

Previously on Dodger Thoughts: How the Johnson signing will affect the team’s roster.

* * *

Tony Jackson of ESPNLosAngeles.com has begun a series of Dodger season preview articles, starting with the infield.

The year after 2009

The year after Steve Garvey, Davey Lopes, Bill Russell and Ron Cey first made the playoffs in 1974, the Dodgers finished 20 games out of first place.

The year after the Dodgers lost two consecutive World Series in 1977-78, they were in last place at the All-Star break.

The disappointing 1975 and 1979 seasons came with nary a cloud over Chavez Ravine to match the jejune gloom that fans today feel over Dodger ownership in the wake of Frank and Jamie McCourt’s divorce. Back in the 1970s, the leadership baton was successfully passed from Walter O’Malley to son Peter, with the widespread approval of the Dodger community – assuming that community even noticed the change, amid the stable ticket prices and cheap Double-Bagger peanuts.

Don Sutton turned 30 five days before Opening Day 1975. Garvey, Lopes, Russell, Cey, Steve Yeager, Bill Buckner, Andy Messersmith, and Doug Rau all were younger. The team was in its prime, but the Cincinnati Reds, whose biggest offseason acquisition was John Vuckovich (and his eight 1975 hits), fired up the Big Red Machine and annihilated rest of the National League West.

There would be a big lesson here about the dangers of standing pat – if the Reds hadn’t stood pat themselves. In other words, 1975 is a bad omen for the 2010 Dodgers – unless the 2009 Dodgers are the 1974 Reds.

Before you think me completely crazy, understand that I realize Russell Martin isn’t Johnny Bench, James Loney isn’t Tony Perez, Casey Blake isn’t Pete Rose and no combination of Blake DeWitt, Ronnie Belliard and Jamey Carroll could ever flap Joe Morgan’s elbow. But the point is that the coming Dodger season could go well or poorly – and whichever way it goes, it will probably have much less to do with Divorce Court than people believe.

Relative to the rest of the current NL, the Dodgers have considerable strengths in other areas, most notably the outfield and the bullpen. They’re a 95-win team that has retained about 75 percent of its talent, and the three principal losses – Randy Wolf, Orlando Hudson and Juan Pierre – figure to decline this year anyway, while a good portion of the team’s core has a chance to improve and Manny Ramirez has a good chance to avoid a 50-game suspension.

And contrary to what seems to be popular opinion in Los Angeles, the other NL contenders haven’t blown past the Dodgers, divorce or not. The league champion Phillies got Roy Halladay, though they gave up Cliff Lee to get him. They get to be the favorites, though not by any wide margin. No other team in the NL had an offseason that should make any Dodger fan nervous. Arizona might get a bounce-back season from Brandon Webb and added several players (at a cost), but has a 25-game gap to make up on Los Angeles. Milwaukee picked up Wolf and Doug Davis, but saw several players depart. And so on …

NL Team 2009 W-L Notable 2010 arrivals Notable 2010 departures
Dodgers 95-67 Jamey Carroll, Nick Green, Justin Miller Randy Wolf, Orlando Hudson, Juan Pierre
Philadelphia 93-69 Roy Halladay, Placido Polanco Cliff Lee, Pedro Feliz, Pedro Martinez
Colorado 92-70 Miguel Olivo, Tim Redding Yorvit Torrealba, Jason Marquis
St. Louis 91-71 Brad Penny, Ruben Gotay Joel Pineiro, Rick Ankiel, Khalil Greene
San Francisco 88-74 Aubrey Huff, Mark DeRosa Ryan Garko, Bobby Howry, Justin Miller
Florida 87-75 Jose Veras, Derrick Turnbow Nick Johnson, Ross Gload, Jeremy Hermida
Atlanta 86-76 Melky Cabrera, Troy Glaus, Billy Wagner Javier Vazquez, Adam LaRoche, Rafael Soriano
Chicago 83-78 Marlon Byrd, Xavier Nady Milton Bradley, Rich Harden
Milwaukee 80-82 Randy Wolf, Doug Davis Mike Cameron, Felipe Lopez, J.J. Hardy
Cincinnati 78-84 Orlando Cabrera, Aroldis Chapman Kip Wells, Willy Taveras
San Diego 75-87 Jon Garland, Scott Hairston, Jerry Hairston, Jr. Kevin Kouzmanoff, Edgar Gonzalez, Henry Blanco
Houston 74-88 Brett Myers, Pedro Feliz Miguel Tejada, Jose Valverde
New York 70-92 Jason Bay, Kelvim Escobar Carlos Delgado, Gary Sheffield
Arizona 70-92 Edwin Jackson, Bobby Howry, Adam LaRoche Max Scherzer, Chad Tracy
Pittsburgh 62-99 Akinori Iwamura, Ryan Church, D.J. Carrasco Matt Capps, Jesse Chavez
Washington 59-103 Jason Marquis, Ivan Rodriguez, Brian Bruney Livan Hernandez, Josh Bard

The 2010 season could go either way. The Dodgers have the talent to contend for a chance to upset the American League champion in the World Series (we’ll get to the team’s inferiority to the Yankees and Red Sox another day). They are also, like every other team including the Phillies, vulnerable to key injuries or prolonged slumps that could send them tumbling.

The 1979 Dodgers, who seemed to have everything going for them entering the season except the departure of Tommy John, lost 31 of 41 games leading into the All-Star Game, digging themselves a hole so deep that not even a league-leading 43 victories after the break could save them. And younger fans will certainly remember what happened to the Dodgers from 2004 to 2005.

On the other hand, the Dodgers rose from a heartbreaking season’s end in 1980 to a World Series title in 1981 not because of any outside acquisitions, but on the precociousness of Fernando Valenuzela and Pedro Guerrero. And though the Dodgers benefited from Kirk Gibson falling into their laps in 1988, they also had to overcome the loss of a key starting pitcher, Bob Welch.

If the Dodgers falter, it will undoubtedly be seen through the prism of the McCourts’ divorce, with everyone pointing out how the Dodgers didn’t get the reinforcements they needed. But not getting enough reinforcements is a historical pattern for the Dodgers. No Dodger team, in Brooklyn or Los Angeles, has ever made the postseason three years in a row. None. The 2010 Dodgers have a chance to be the first (not to mention a chance to be the first to win a World Series in 22 years). Their season will ride a thin line between ecstasy and disappointment.

There probably aren’t any Dodger followers, including myself, that don’t wish the team had more talent entering the 2010 season, that don’t wonder if an opportunity to get over the top is being squandered. You always want your odds to be the best they can be. But they never are.

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For past readers of Dodger Thoughts who are going to comment here under new screen names, feel free to let your online friends know about the change in this thread. (You can do so in any thread you like, but I thought it might be nice to have all the changes in one place.)

The Dodger Thoughts Commenting Guide

I hope new readers will join the existing Dodger Thoughts crew in the comments section. I do have some guidelines that have worked well in the past that I appreciate you following. I hope you’ll find that they become second nature rather quickly.

Thank You For Not …
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The archives

Dodger Thoughts archives from July 2002-January 2009 are available via the sidebar. There will be a link to archives from February 2009-January 2010 sometime soon.

Here we move again

What goes around … goes around …

Love, hate and tears

If I were to say the Dodgers are my life, I wouldn’t mean to say that the Dodgers are my only reason for existence.

If I were to say that the Dodgers are my life, I would mean that the Dodgers are so much like my life that it’s frightening.

I look at my life and I look at the Dodgers, and I see so much to celebrate. I see an existence much more positive than not. I see rewards that were earned and good fortune that sometimes might not be deserved. We catch a break now and then, the Dodgers and me.

But I see also frustration. Unrewarded effort. Misplaced effort. And sometimes, downright incompetence. I see a whole that might be less than than the sum of its parts, because the guy in charge doesn’t quite have his act together.

Frank and Jamie McCourt are the target of a lot of Dodger fans’ hate right now. The McCourts now, before them Fox, alongside them the Giants or the Yankees or Barry Bonds or Reggie Jackson in 1977 or Juan Marichal in 1965. Of course, hating the enemy is one thing; it’s worse when you hate your own. People find latent joy in hating their rivals, but it’s just painful to hate the ones that hold the keys to your castle.

But I don’t hate the McCourts. Hate is a word that I have almost no use for, except that hate is a word that regularly comes up inside my head. Because there is no one in this world I hate more than myself.

I don’t hate myself all the time. I don’t hate myself most of the time. But I hate myself some of the time, because I have goals for myself, for the way I want to be as a human being, for what I want to achieve and for the quality of life I want to bring myself and my family. Sometimes when I don’t achieve those goals, I understand, or I forgive. Other times, I just hate myself for it. I’ll hate myself for it.

For so long, I thought achievement, along with a certain kind of composure or even emotional grace, was my birthright, the way World Series titles once seemed to be for the Dodgers. But on the field, I’m so much less than I intended to be.

I was born to privilege that was hard-earned by my father, who had to save for weeks to buy a 25-cent yo-yo when he was a child and never took a dime from my grandfather in adulthood. I was educated at the finest schools, yet find myself in my 40s writing about inconsequential events in a profession that may well spit me out in 10 years, give or take, without any cushion whatsoever, if what’s happened to some friends in the business is any sort of evidence at all.

The Los Angeles Dodgers were born to privilege that was hard-earned from their parents in Brooklyn. And they had a cushy childhood in this city, abundant with success. But now they find themselves in middle-age, not without their virtues, but all too often caught in moments in which they seem turned around, spread too thin, where they can’t rise to the most critical challenges or sometimes execute the simplest tasks.

Sustained greatness for us is chronically, almost pathologically elusive. We are only intermittently transcendent and never when it counts, never supreme. Some of that is bad luck, and some of that is the result of a brain or soul or body that is just inadequate.

I don’t hate the McCourts. Oh, I’ve been angry at them, but I’ve never hated them. I don’t think I can because without even thinking about it, I see in them what I see in myself – a mix of good intentions and egotistical selfishness, competence and incompetence, ostensible foresight undermined by confusion. Why should they be any better than me? If I owned the Dodgers, I’d get some things right that they get wrong, but I’d surely screw up something else.

If there’s anything I hate outside of myself, it’s stupidity and hypocrisy and injustice. I do hate the occasional hypocrisy and stupidity that I think the McCourts have shown over the past five years, from the moment they took ownership of the team and, to my mind at least, proclaimed themselves to be something more saintly than they actually were. But hate the people themselves? I have to get over my own issues and failings, first – otherwise I think maybe I’d be a hypocrite, too. And I don’t want to be a hypocrite – or more of a hypocrite than I already am.

I do so crave to be better, and of course, I crave for the Dodgers to be better. Is this really the best we can be? Good but not great? Slowly sliding backward no matter how much we want to climb forward?

The world is a strange place, such a strange place. It would be pedantic or condescending or even hypocritical for me to point out the level of angst wasted by our culture on Tiger Woods relative to the angst spent on problems of real significance, especially when I’m closer to being part of the problem than the solution. I’d be better off keeping it in my own element.

Today, I saw a film that will get wide consideration early next year to be honored as the best piece of filmed art of 2009, yet it didn’t hold a candle to the small, almost completely ignored TV show that I came home to see afterward. “Friday Night Lights” has persevered against all odds, producing dozens of hours of greatness while the big guns of the entertainment world pat themselves on the back for doing a decent job for 120 minutes – and yet continues to find ways to be even greater. My god, you should have seen this show tonight. “Friday Night Lights” made me cry. It is who I want to be. And I might never get there – probably won’t ever get there.

I want to make someone cry – know what I mean? Instead, I’ll continue to write dispensable stories about the entertainment industry or blog posts about the Dodgers, here today, gone tomorrow. How can you not hate yourself just a little for that? How can you direct anger elsewhere when you bear that kind of dissatisfaction?

And of course, there is the one all-encompassing difference between my life and the Dodgers, the one difference I’d like to ignore. There’s the grand prize that can be lost. The Dodgers haven’t won the World Series since 1988, but no one can take 1988 away from them. I have a grand prize, but a cruel world can and will decide to hack away at it at any moment. It has happened to some of you, and honestly I don’t know how you bear it. I don’t know how I will ever bear it.

This is my life. I’m happy until I get angry. I get angry often and profoundly, but the anger goes away. It goes away on its own, and it goes away quickly. It must do so because it has to. If I keep it, I’m done for. Amid the stupidity, hypocrisy and injustice – amid the impending agony – I have to keep pressing forward as if I’ll keep my peace in this world.

The Dodgers are my life.

‘Public Enemy No. 1’

Clayton Kershaw – catch him while you can …

Vin Scully and the rest of us get our first look at Kershaw’s curveball.

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