Dodger Thoughts

Jon Weisman's outlet for dealing psychologically with the Los Angeles Dodgers, baseball and life

Kershaw sneaks into Cy Young race

A quick glance at the National League leaders in Wins Above Replacement finds an interesting name atop the list.

1. Clayton Kershaw

Now, not everyone’s going to care about WAR, but it does signify that a repeat trophy for Kershaw is in play. Read more about it in my latest post at Los Angeles Magazine’s CityThink blog.


Braves break through in 11th, down Dodgers


Mattingly suspended two games


  1. Anonymous

    I think Cueto, all things considered, is the most impressive of the front-runners up to this point. That said, there is still a lot of starts to go for any of the top 10 pitchers in the Cy Young race to dominate the rest of the way and win it.

  2. Anonymous

    Elbert is ready to come back on the active roster. When and who leaves are the questions?

  3. Anonymous

    I think he’s going to have to have an incredibly strong finish to be considered — which I hope for, for him as well as the Dodgers!

    Last year, Clayton won the pitching triple crown.  From what I can see, this year he’s not even in the top 3 in any of those categories.  I would think for a voter to choose him a 2nd year in a row, he wouldn’t have to repeat the previous year’s performance, but he would have to dominate the field better than he does now.

    • Anonymous

      I agree.  He has anti-incumbent bias to contend with.  I think that even a undefeated finish with a sub-1.00 era and 10k/9 would not be enough unless all other contenders collapse.  Not unless he matches Cain’s trump card of a perfect game (or at least a no-hitter).  The fate of the two teams probably matters as well (though it shouldn’t).

      • I don’t see much anti-incumbent bias in the Cy Young voting. 

        It’s only been three years since there was a repeat winner. In fact, entering the season, I’d say Kershaw was considered the favorite with many prepared to vote for him, but others got off to such hot starts that he fell off the map a little bit.  If he has an undefeated record, sub-1.00 ERA and 10 K/9 the rest of the way – which would make him about 19-6 with a 2.41 ERA – and no one matches that, he’s gonna win the award. He doesn’t need others to collapse. He just needs to be the best.

        • Anonymous

          Well, anti-incumbent bias doesn’t mean that incumbents can’t win.  It just means that other things equal, I think voters will opt for a new guy.  If other things aren’t equal – if Kershaw’s numbers are clearly the best, a little bias against a repeat winner won’t be enough to make a difference. 

                        “He doesn’t need others to collapse. He just needs to be the best.”

          If you mean “the best for the whole season,” I agree with you.  But “best from here on out” won’t do it unless it’s “best by a lot.”  My choice of “collapse” was imprecise.  I think it’s pretty unlikely that Kershaw can lead the league in wins, since he has only 11 now and others have 14-15.  Now, I don’t think wins mean anything, but lots of voters do, and if someone gets 20 with an ERA not much worse than Kershaw’s, then I don’t think CK will win.  A guy with 15 now would probably only have to go 5-3 or 5-4 the rest of the way to get to 20, which isn’t a collapse, I guess, but definitely a slow-down from current pace.

          Cain is the most interesting comparison.  Same ERA, same WHIP, and only 1 more win than Kershaw.  But then he has the perfecto on his resume.  So, other things equal, I think Cain beats Kershaw.  Of course, if it comes down to those two, the winner might be decided by which of their teams does best.

  4. Anonymous

    RHH Matt Treanor has hit RHP better in every year of his career which started in 2004 except 2006 and this season (for accuracy he was 0 for 14 in 2009 and I didn’t look at any minor league stats). this year his OPS’s are 386 and 723. I would say Mattingly should try to start Treanor vs LHP except that Capuano has much better stats when Treanor catches him. The staff as a whole has nearly equal stats between the 2 catchers which, of course, implies that as a group the pitching staff except for Capuano does better with AJ.

  5. Anonymous

    RHP Sheets has, in his 6 starts, OPS’s of 858 and 603 with RHH the better. We will see if this influences Mattingly.

  6. Anonymous

    To show how the relationship between officials and managers/players is in different sports, witness this scene today in the Newcastle-Tottenham soccer match.

    Newcastle manager Alan Pardew, AFTER his team took a 1-0 lead, was starting to yell instructions to his team rather loudly and excitedly. One of the linesmen was standing in front of him while this was going on (the linesman was standing where he was supposed to). Pardew  shoved the official out of the way.

    Pardew’s punishment? 

    He had to go sit in the stands for the rest of the match.

    That was it.

  7. Anonymous

    To add to this, Don Mattingly was suspended for two games starting tonight. Managers don’t get to appeal.

  8. Anonymous

    How and why did Donnie get two games? Did he touch an umpire? Is Torre trying to be a tough guy, or did and and Donnie cut a deal for a two game suspension for the manager and none for Kemp?

    • Anonymous

      Mattingly probably got a two-game suspension since he’s been kicked out several other times already.

  9. Anonymous

    It’s no big deal, the manager can still call the shots from the clubhouse.

    • Anonymous

       He should be definitively suspended from handling the pen.

    • Anonymous

      Suspended managers aren’t allowed in the clubhouse, unlike when they’re ejected. It’s more of a small-scale Sean Payton situation.

  10. Anonymous

    Kershaw may still be the league’s best pitcher, but it’s hard to envision a repeat. Cueto’s about to win his 16th, with a good chance of winning 20 on a probable division champ. He could also be the ERA leader in a hitter’s park.

  11. Anonymous

    The AL’s frontrunner for the Cy sure took a hit last night – 9 earned in 3 innings of “work” – jumped his ERA from 2.22 up to 2.74 – ouch.

  12. Anonymous

    I think Mattingly now leads the league with his sixth ejection of the year. Who knew such a mild mannered guy would be flame-on as a manager. Should be an interesting week without Donnie running the pen. I have often had bar room discussions about why baseball should allow pitching coaches to run the pitching and the pen, like OCs do in football. Pitching coaches are pitchers for cryin’ out loud so shouldn’t they have a better insight on when I guy is cooked or not or when and how to use the pen?!?

    • Anonymous

      Yeah, maybe his arguments take so long because he speaks quietly and has to keep repeating himself.

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