Dodger Thoughts

Jon Weisman's outlet for dealing psychologically with the Los Angeles Dodgers, baseball and life

Can Dodgers improve batting with runners on in 2014?

Carl Crawford congratulates Adrian Gonzalez at home plate in a game at San Diego on April 11. (Jon SooHoo/LA Dodgers,LLC 2013)

Carl Crawford congratulates Adrian Gonzalez at home plate in San Diego on April 11. (Jon SooHoo/LA Dodgers, LLC 2013)

By Jon Weisman

You don’t even need to look at the numbers, do you? The Dodgers, even as they went all the way to the National League Championship Series in 2013, didn’t hit enough with men on base, right?

Well, maybe we should look at the numbers anyway. Because they’re kind of interesting.

Dodgers with men on base, 2013
(ordered by plate appearances)

Rk PA ▾ HR BA OBP SLG OPS
1 Adrian Gonzalez 312 11 .308 .362 .491 .853
2 Andre Ethier 266 4 .243 .357 .356 .713
3 A.J. Ellis 232 5 .247 .320 .354 .674
4 Mark Ellis 209 4 .295 .340 .421 .761
5 Juan Uribe 195 6 .280 .328 .463 .791
6 Yasiel Puig 174 5 .259 .356 .395 .751
7 Carl Crawford 169 1 .272 .337 .338 .675
8 Skip Schumaker 165 2 .278 .354 .354 .708
9 Hanley Ramirez 149 10 .351 .416 .679 1.095
10 Matt Kemp 145 2 .246 .303 .346 .650
11 Nick Punto 134 0 .280 .320 .364 .685
12 Jerry Hairston 106 1 .217 .272 .283 .554
13 Tim Federowicz 86 2 .203 .286 .351 .637
14 Scott Van Slyke 76 1 .210 .329 .339 .668
15 Luis Cruz 67 1 .150 .200 .233 .433
Team Total 2805 55 .257 .325 .383 .708

Collectively, the Dodgers had a .325 on-base percentage with men on base, nearly identical to their overall 2013 OBP of .326. And of the nine players who came up the most in those situations, none had a lower OBP than .320.

Key RBI guys like Adrian Gonzalez (.362), Andre Ethier (.357) and, holy cow, Hanley Ramirez (.416) kept coming through time and again, either driving in runs or extending innings. Matt Kemp, by contrast, was disappointing at .303, but we’re going to talk more about him in a minute.

Where the Dodgers showed more of a dip was in their slugging percentage – .383 with runners on base, compared to .396 overall in the season. The difference was more pronounced with runners in scoring position.

Dodgers with RISP
(ordered by plate appearances)

Rk PA ▾ HR BA OBP SLG OPS
1 Adrian Gonzalez 188 7 .323 .378 .532 .909
2 Andre Ethier 156 2 .228 .372 .325 .697
3 A.J. Ellis 135 2 .255 .333 .345 .679
4 Mark Ellis 124 2 .282 .336 .388 .724
5 Skip Schumaker 110 2 .268 .336 .351 .687
6 Juan Uribe 105 2 .278 .340 .433 .773
7 Carl Crawford 103 1 .289 .359 .356 .715
8 Yasiel Puig 99 4 .234 .374 .416 .789
9 Matt Kemp 87 0 .230 .310 .270 .581
10 Hanley Ramirez 83 7 .368 .458 .779 1.237
11 Nick Punto 67 0 .246 .297 .351 .648
12 Jerry Hairston 63 0 .236 .274 .236 .511
13 Tim Federowicz 51 0 .122 .245 .171 .416
14 Scott Van Slyke 43 0 .229 .326 .314 .640
15 Luis Cruz 42 0 .128 .146 .154 .300
Team Total 1639 29 .252 .330 .367 .697

If the Dodgers were swinging for the fences with runners in scoring position, the stats show they weren’t connecting. Their slugging percentage dipped 7 percent compared with their overall 2013 performance. On the other hand, their OBP inched up, with the eight guys most frequently batting with RISP doing their part to drive in runs or at least extend innings. And again, Hanley – wow.

In general, given the sample sizes at play and the variables in terms of situation, I’m not sure how significant these differences are. You’d expect pitchers to be more vulnerable with runners on base, if only because vulnerable pitchers tend to put more runners on base. But pitchers being more careful with runners on could also play a role.

Which leads me to latest favorite stat: In 2013, Clayton Kershaw allowed five extra-base hits with runners in scoring position all year.

Keep all this in mind as I present the Dodgers’ performance with the bases loaded in 2013. The sample size shrinks … and the offense shrinks even more.

Dodgers with bases loaded, 2013
(ordered by plate appearances)

Rk PA ▾ HR BA OBP SLG OPS
1 A.J. Ellis 17 0 .143 .176 .214 .391
2 Mark Ellis 14 0 .417 .357 .417 .774
3 Juan Uribe 14 0 .154 .143 .385 .527
4 Skip Schumaker 14 0 .071 .071 .071 .143
5 Adrian Gonzalez 10 0 .375 .300 .500 .800
6 Carl Crawford 10 0 .333 .300 .444 .744
7 Andre Ethier 9 0 .143 .222 .286 .508
8 Matt Kemp 9 0 .125 .111 .125 .236
9 Tim Federowicz 8 0 .143 .125 .286 .411
10 Clayton Kershaw 8 0 .125 .125 .125 .250
11 Scott Van Slyke 8 0 .000 .125 .000 .125
12 Nick Punto 7 0 .200 .429 .200 .629
13 Yasiel Puig 6 1 .400 .500 1.000 1.500
14 Luis Cruz 5 0 .000 .000 .000 .000
15 Jerry Hairston 4 0 .500 .500 .500 1.000
Team Total 156 1 .190 .205 .270 .475

Those numbers … well, they are numbers. I’ll give them that. The Dodgers were last in the NL in batting with the bases loaded, by a wide margin. Coming in at 15th was Pittsburgh, with a .591 OPS.

How wildly inconsistent are they from hitter to hitter? No one on that list has a batting average between .200 and .300.

Also, do you see who isn’t on the list? Our friend Mr. Ramirez, whose total number of plate appearances with the bases loaded in 2013 was … one. (He got out.)

Once more, I’d offer that the quantity of plate appearances is too small to derive too much into the Dodgers’ bases-loaded performance, but we can say this: If you’re looking for a way the Dodgers can improve in 2014, look no farther.

I promised to circle back to Matt Kemp, and circle back we shall. Kemp, as you might have noticed, struggled in all of these situations, yet another reason his 2013 was so frustrating. But is it possible that we’ve got this backward – that his frustrations were the reason he struggled with men on base?

Look at how Kemp did in previous seasons:

Matt Kemp with men on base

I Year PA HR BA OBP SLG OPS
2006 85 4 .295 .318 .513 .830
2007 144 4 .373 .396 .560 .956
2008 296 6 .282 .342 .417 .760
2009 321 13 .279 .336 .463 .800
2010 324 15 .238 .299 .462 .761
2011 347 21 .344 .424 .626 1.049
2012 204 14 .331 .412 .651 1.063
2013 145 2 .246 .303 .346 .650
Career Total 1866 79 .295 .357 .505 .862

Matt Kemp with RISP

I Year PA HR BA OBP SLG OPS
2006 50 3 .273 .300 .523 .823
2007 85 2 .333 .353 .500 .853
2008 168 3 .268 .359 .394 .754
2009 190 9 .279 .342 .485 .827
2010 193 8 .225 .311 .456 .767
2011 200 13 .335 .450 .652 1.102
2012 107 5 .292 .383 .551 .934
2013 87 0 .230 .310 .270 .581
Career Total 1080 43 .279 .360 .486 .846

Matt Kemp with bases loaded

I Year PA HR BA OBP SLG OPS
2006 7 0 .167 .143 .167 .310
2007 10 0 .000 .100 .000 .100
2008 18 1 .250 .222 .500 .722
2009 19 3 .313 .316 .938 1.253
2010 15 1 .300 .333 .600 .933
2011 10 1 .571 .500 1.000 1.500
2012 9 0 .250 .222 .250 .472
2013 9 0 .125 .111 .125 .236
Career Total 97 6 .250 .258 .500 .758

Historically, Kemp has been good to great with runners on base, before falling off a cliff in 2013. (Weird stat No. 2: Kemp had more grand slams in 2009 than hits with the bases loaded in 2013). A healthier Kemp obviously makes the Dodgers a better team; this is but one example of the difference he might make.

The big question I have is how much control players really have over their performance with runners on base. In a conversation for the season preview story of the upcoming Dodgers’ March magazine (which you all are going to want to get), Dodger manager Don Mattingly shared his thoughts.

“You put an emphasis on it in Spring Training,” Mattingly said. “You continue to put guys in situations in camp and work on things. … Everyone tries to drive that run in, and a lot of times they do it really fast. Sometimes it’s just being willing to let the next guy do it, because they may not be willing to pitch to (you). So if they’re not going to give you anything to do it with … you’ve got to be willing to pass the baton and trust your teammate.”

Easier said than done? No doubt. But even though their performance with runners on base might be better than you realized — and certainly improved when they heated up in the summer — it remains something the Dodgers will think about.

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4 Comments

  1. enchantedbeaver

    This team has struggled with the bases loaded as far back as I can remember. Whether the numbers bear that out I don’t know, but that’s always been my and my friends perception. The running joke among us is, if you want to pitch a shutout against the Dodgers, just walk the bases loaded the start of every inning, then they’ll get themselves out.

  2. oldbrooklynfan

    The more runners on base the worse the the Dodgers offense becomes, all fans that watch the games know that that’s the team’s archilles heel. I think pressure is the biggest problem or knowing this might be the culprit. The trying so hard to knock in the runs might be the trouble. Like Yogi said, “You can’t hit and think at the same time”. I had the same trouble when I played as a kid.
    Well it’s good to know that the Dodgers got to the NLCS even with this problem, so maybe they won’t worry so much when they come to the plate when the bases aren’t empty.

  3. In my opinion, this article addresses the most glaring issue facing the Dodgers today. Lets hope that Mattingly and the coaching staff can find the key to turn the tide.

  4. Not too concerned with RISP and bases loaded stats, as long as the runners continue to get on base

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