By Jon Weisman
“Want to defeat the Dodgers? Let them load the bases.”
That’s the headline of Bill Chuck’s story at Gammons Daily today, and one that many Dodger fans will nod in agreement to.
The Dodgers have the worst offense in baseball with the bases loaded. It’s unmistakable, and it’s beyond frustrating — it feels like not being able to take candy from a baby that really shouldn’t be having the candy in the first place.
I’ve argued for a couple of months that while this is all true, bases-loaded situations are such a small fraction of a team’s at-bats with men on base and runners in scoring position that it’s not worth obsessing over.
- Bases loaded: 109 plate appearances, .193 on-base percentage, last in the National League
- Runners in scoring position: 1,484 plate appearances, .357 on-base percentage, first in the National League
Which stat is more important? The one that occurs less than once a game, or the one that occurs more than 10 times per game?
But today, here’s a different way to look at the Dodgers with the bases loaded, inspired by Chuck’s piece. Let’s see how the team does, batter-by-batter.
The mic drops
- Dan Haren, 1 for 1 with a three-run double
- Darwin Barney, 1 for 1 with a two-run single
The decent
- Miguel Rojas and Justin Turner, 2 for 6 combined with an HBP and seven RBI (.429 OBP)
- Andre Ethier, 3 for 9 with a triple and eight RBI (.333 OBP)
- Adrian Gonzalez, 4 for 12 with two sacrifice flies and nine RBI (.286 OBP)
- Juan Uribe, 3 for 9 with four RBI (.333 OBP)
The A.J.
- A.J. Ellis, 0 for 1 with an HBP, two sacrifice flies and four RBI (.250 OBP)
The indecent
- Hanley Ramirez, 2 for 12 with a walk and five RBI (.231 OBP)
- Carl Crawford, 1 for 5 with one RBI (.200 OBP)
- Yasiel Puig, 0 for 7 with a walk and one RBI (.125 OBP)
- Dee Gordon, 0 for 10 with two sacrifice flies and three RBI (.000 OBP)
- Scott Van Slyke, 0 for 3 with one RBI (.000 OBP)
- Drew Butera, 0 for 4 (.000 OBP)
- Matt Kemp, 0 for 9 (.000 OBP)
There are some awful results there, from the Dodgers’ second baseman, shortstop and entire starting outfield. Kemp, Puig, Crawford and Van Slyke are 1 for 24 with a walk and three RBI.
But if anything ever cried out for small sample size warnings, it’s this.
Gordon leads the laggards with 12 bases-loaded plate appearances this season. Twelve, out of 574 plate appearances overall. Two percent. Maybe there’s a problem with Gordon’s approach. Or maybe 12 trips to the plate aren’t enough to judge.
In the past three seasons, Kemp has had three singles in 20 at-bats with the bases loaded. In the three seasons before that, he was 12 for 33 with five home runs, a .366 on-base percentage. .848 slugging percentage and 47 RBI.
There’s a difference between being bad and being hopeless. The Dodgers have been bad with the bases loaded. But as memorable as the failures have been, the opportunities have scarce, and it’s a situation that can easily turn itself around. Even in September.
Through they’re underachieving in this area, clearly they’re excelling in many others. Given that the Dodgers are in first place in the NL West, maybe — just maybe — batting with the bases loaded isn’t the be-all and end-all of baseball.
Don Bright
I would have liked to seen Joc and Kemp be able to swing the batter with winning run already at second with no outs (and maybe one out), then Butera and Gordon with the bases loaded with one and two outs. Apparently DM disagreed and had Joc sacrifice (I admit it was a good bunt).
Michael Green
As usual, Jon is wise and correct. But there is another way to look at it–yesterday, A-Gon didn’t strike out with the bases loaded. He struck out with a runner at third and less than two out. THAT is what’s unacceptable.
Mark Hagerstrom
Not a desired outcome, but what does unacceptable mean? Is it acceptance if he is put in the line up the next day. BTW his OPS with a man on third is 1.400 in 25 pa and 4 SF.
artieboy
109 plate appearances equates to how many games? And what are the wins/losses in this games? I guess it’s in the Gammons article.
artieboy
If may not be the “be-all and end-all” but it helps :)
oldbrooklynfan
It could all be psychological.
T.A. Barnhart
given what happened on Wednesday, brushing this off would be a mistake. the inability of the Dodgers to win in extra winnings, and, worse, their inability to come back after the 7th inning, is due in part to their inability to get a key hit when it truly matters. yes, runs in the first inning count as much as those in the 9th; but when the runs you are offered in the bottom of the 11th inning are not taken, then the chance to wins go begging.
this is a big problem because it’s part of a troubling larger problem: the Dodgers either win early, or they don’t win at all. and that’s a troubling sign for the playoffs where winning late is essential.
Jon Weisman
They did come back in the late innings — twice. So why only the attention to the failures but not the successes? How can you say they have an inability to get a key hit when it matters when they scored five runs from the seventh inning on?