Dodger Thoughts

On September 12, 2011

Sometimes it’s really curious what happens after you say something out loud.

Sunday, after Dee Gordon struck out in his first at-bat of the Dodgers’ 8-1 loss to San Francisco, I mentioned the fact that (in addition to having only two career walks), Gordon had only seen ball three a total of 10 times in 156 career plate appearances.

Lo and behold, in his final times at bat Sunday, Gordon walked on a 3-2 pitch in the fifth inning and grounded out on a 3-2 pitch in the seventh.

As bad as Gordon’s walk totals are – and make no mistake, even though they increased 50 percent in his last game, they’re just awful – I’m not ready to pronounce them a career-killer. Gordon’s still only 23, he’s in the big leagues before he was supposed to be and his ungodly speed has definite value that helps compensate. If he can hold down the shortstop position, and if he can continue to develop as a hitter, he might be a Dodger regular for years to come.

It sure would be nice if he showed some walking ability, though – and his lack of power doesn’t excuse him completely. For example, Brett Butler in his first two seasons in the majors (1981-82) had seven extra-base hits and no home runs in 413 plate appearances, but still managed to walk 44 times while striking out 52. Gordon, in 159 plate appearances, is at three walks, 24 strikeouts.

Except for the walks, Butler’s rookie season was not that unlike Gordon’s – 145 plate appearances, .254 batting average, .317 slugging percentage, nine steals in 10 attempts. Butler then had a huge learning curve in his second year, hitting .217 and slugging .225 in 268 plate appearances while stealing 21 bases in 29 attempts, in a year that included a midseason demotion to Triple-A for six weeks. Be prepared …

Butler was considered one of the fastest young players in baseball in his day and went on to steal 558 bases in his career. It shows you the kind of skills that Gordon will have in his bid to overcome his walk issues that he already has twice as many steals as Butler, while also offering the (admittedly error-prone) ability to play a more important defense position.

The Dodgers and their fans might need as much patience with Gordon as the kid himself needs to show at the plate. Hopefully, the sheer excitement he brings to the game will help with that.

* * *

One more remembrance from a forgettable game: If you missed Juan Rivera’s circus play Sunday, here’s your chance to rectify that.

A Happier 9/11

On September 11, 2011

In History

It has been eight years since this piece was first published: September 11, 2003. A lot has happened since then – including a very happy September 18, 2006 that some would say surpassed what happened on this day in 1983. But this game will always remain special, and I hope you don’t mind me continuing to remember it on this date.

* * *

Twenty years ago today, Dodger Stadium hosted its greatest game.

It began swathed in bright blue skies and triple-digit temperatures. When it ended, 228 crazy brilliant minutes later, shadows palmed most of the playing field, and every Dodger fan who witnessed the spectacle found themselves near joyous collapse.

The game was between the Dodgers of Steve Sax and Pedro Guerrero, of Greg Brock and Mike Marshall … and the Braves of Dale Murphy, of Bruce Benedict, of Brad Komminsk.

In the end, however, it came down to one man. A rookie named R.J. Reynolds.

Dodgers done with minor-league promotions in 2011

On September 11, 2011

Dodgers at Giants, 1:05 p.m.

Dee Gordon, SS
Jerry Sands, RF
Matt Kemp, CF
Juan Rivera, 1B
Aaron Miles, 3B
Rod Barajas, C
Tony Gwynn Jr., LF
Russ Mitchell, 3B
Hiroki Kuroda, P

The Dodgers are not planning any more callups, despite Chattanooga’s elimination from the Double-A playoffs, according to Tony Jackson of ESPNLosAngeles.com. “This is it,” Dodger manager Don Mattingly told Jackson. “This is our club.”

Andre Ethier’s knee surgery is set for Wednesday, reports Jackson.
Javy Guerra has been getting saves despite a cracked fingernail, reports Ken Gurnick of MLB.com.
Matt Kemp gets a New York Times profile from Tyler Kepner.
Steve Dilbeck of the Times on the Dodger offseason outlook:

… Colletti acknowledged that McCourt had yet to let him know how much he can spend in the offseason, and good luck with that. He has attorneys to pay, you know.

Both Manager Don Mattingly and Colletti said it’s the offense that needs upgrading, a statement’s shock value that resonates right up there with “desert needs more water.”

The only troubling thing to this is that it seems immediately reactive to this year’s team and not part of an overall plan. I suppose some of that is always inherent with the job, but a year ago it was the rotation that was a problem –- as anyone paying attention knew it would be going into the season. …

The good part to this .500 season is that having a crummy team, and battling constant injuries, enabled to Dodgers to get a good and encouraging look at a lot of young players.

Still, it’s not like the next wave will be reminiscent of the Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Russell Martin and James Loney invasion. Most of the promise comes from young pitchers and a couple of light-hitting infielders. …

To the team’s great credit, they have continued to play hard, though as Mattingly has recognized, it is always dangerous to place too much credence in the performance of late call-ups, either good or bad.

There is plenty that needs to be added next season. And there are 10 current Dodgers who have contracts ending within the next three weeks. Plenty of bodies will come and go, yet the team figures to look very familiar.
Wally Moon, who has published a memoir, “Moon Shots: Reflections on a Baseball Life,” is interviewed by Tom Hoffarth of the Daily News.

A day in the life

On September 11, 2011

In Life

This morning, I’m taking my youngest son to his first organized sports activity: soccer for 3-year-olds. Later, we’re stopping by a friend’s house, and then I’m taking my older son to a miniature golf birthday party, and somewhere in there hitting the back-to-school picnic at my kids’ elementary school if we can squeeze it in.

It’s a day full of plans, something that’s taken me aback a bit. Before all this happened, we had planned a family event for this weekend, and when my wife suggested this particular date, I said, “No way.” No one’s going to want to go to anything on the 10th anniversary of 9/11.

So we moved our thing to September 10, which was lucky only because it turned out seemingly everyone had something they wanted to do on September 11, and I’m not talking about sitting around and watching anniversary specials. Lives are being lived, not irreverently, necessarily, but without reverence as a priority.

And I’m glad. I know why I pictured spending the day laying low, watching coverage of the anniversary when I wasn’t wrangling three kids who weren’t alive when the tragedy happened, but that picture didn’t make sense on a couple of levels. There would have been value to it, but there will be more value to what we do instead: trying to make more memories.

Anniversaries serve a purpose. Certainly 9/11 does. I don’t constantly stop and think about that day, but I do need to from time to time. To understand why, you can read this piece I wrote for Dodger Thoughts in mid-2006.

… Sometimes the hole closes up. Sometimes, I learned this week, you need to reopen it. …

I’m glad we don’t feel trapped by that anniversary. I just don’t want to forget what happened, for the sake of those directly affected.

Dead cat bounce: Dodgers at .500 after another victory over Giants

On September 10, 2011

In Game wrap

Thearon W. Henderson/Getty ImagesDana Eveland

In a year that has been so impossible, the improbable has happened.

The 2011 Dodgers, which threatened for most of the year to be the worst Dodger team since 1992 and one of the worst in the franchise’s Los Angeles history, have fought their way back to a .500 record, capping the comeback by defeating the Giants tonight, 3-0.

With 17 games left in the season, the Dodgers have 72 wins and 72 losses, going 35-21 (.625) since July 7. The Dodgers have been the fifth-best team in the majors since that time.

39-15 .722 Phillies
39-20 .661 Brewers
38-20 .655 Diamondbacks
37-20 .649 Tigers
35-21 .625 Dodgers
36-23 .610 Yankees
34-23 .596 Angels

It’s a pretty incredible turnaround, and it shows just how big a hole they dug that except for maybe the Angels, they’re the only one of those teams above that won’t be going to the playoffs – in fact, they won’t even be close. They will possibly finish as high as second place, having pulled within 2 1/2 games of San Francisco (75-70) – but they’re only a half-game closer to first place than they were July 7, thanks to the similarly ridiculous run of Arizona.

The Dodgers won tonight with their “trips right” offense – James Loney and Matt Kemp scoring the first two runs after each hit triples to right off Ryan Vogelsong and his sub-3.00 ERA in the second and fourth innings – and with the remarkable pitching of Dana Eveland.

Eveland might be doing it with mirrors, but they’re efficient mirrors. He has struck out only six batters in 15 innings over two starts with the Dodgers, but he’s been practically untouchable.

Tonight, he shut out San Francisco over seven innings, allowing two singles, a double and a walk before the eighth inning, when he walked the leadoff batter and was replaced by Kenley Jansen. Jansen gave up a single but retired the next three batters (all of them tying runs) to keep the shutout alive, and Javy Guerra put the Giants out in the ninth (after allowing two baserunners) to close it.

Two big plays helped the Dodger pitchers: a leaping catch by Justin Sellers, in his first MLB start at third base, of a Brandon Belt liner after two of the Giants’ hits of Eveland had put runners on second and third, and a running catch at the wall in center with one out and one on in the ninth by MVP candidate Kemp, with Belt again the victim.

Juan Rivera went 3 for 4 and drove in a run, while Loney had two hits and a walk.

Joe Block of KABC AM 790 tweeted that Eveland had never before pitched consecutive games totaling 15 innings and 193 pitches. Has the 27-year-old, who was injured in Spring Training and spent all season in the minors before September 1, resurrected his career and become a contender for the 2012 roster? It’s interesting to read what I wrote about him seven months ago in the 2011 Dodger Thoughts Spring Training Primer.

The 28-year-old (oops – not until October) has slung a 6.96 ERA the past two seasons with 204 baserunners allowed in 98 1/3 innings against 46 strikeouts. Last year, he sucked Toronto in by allowing four earned runs in his first three starts, only to finish the year back in the high sixes. In short, like many professionals, he’s capable of a solid outing every now and then, but it’s a roulette wheel you don’t want to spin.

It sounds harsh, even wrong, to be dismissive of Eveland. You should keep your guard up long-term, but feel free to celebrate him – and the turnaround Dodgers – tonight.

September 10 game chat

On September 10, 2011

Dodgers at Giants, 6:05 p.m.

Dee Gordon, SS
Justin Sellers, 3B
Matt Kemp, CF
Juan Rivera, RF
James Loney, 1B
Jerry Sands, LF
A.J. Ellis, C
Jamey Carroll, 2B
Dana Eveland, P

Close calls for Kemp, Kershaw in MVP, Cy Young races

On September 10, 2011

In Awards

Top National League Cy Young Award candidates
(bold text signifies leader among contenders)

	IP	ERA	ERA+	WAR (B-R.com)	WAR (Fangraphs)	WHIP	K/9
Roy Halladay	210 2/3	2.44	159	6.5	7.7	1.049	8.7
Cole Hamels	194	2.60	149	5.4	5.0	0.954	7.9
Ian Kennedy	202	2.90	135	4.8	4.2	1.109	7.9
Clayton Kershaw	213 2/3	2.36	156	6.0	6.6	1.002	9.7
Cliff Lee	203 2/3	2.47	157	6.0	5.9	1.031	9.0

How I might rank them today:
1) Halladay
2) Kershaw
3) Lee
4) Hamels
5) Kennedy

While you can certainly make a top-flight argument for Kershaw, it’s hard to make a top-flight one against Halladay – which I think is significant since because seems like it has been Halladay’s award to lose for a while now.

Top National League MVP candidates
(bold text signifies leader among contenders)

	PA	OPS	OPS+	HR	RBI	SB	TAV (BP)	WAR (B-R)	WAR (Fangraphs)
Ryan Braun	564	.981	163	27	95	31	.339	6.7	6.3
Prince Fielder	624	.940	153	31	108	0	.316	3.9	4.2
Matt Kemp	609	.962	166	32	107	38	.341	8.7	6.9
Albert Pujols	569	.919	153	34	87	7	.317	5.1	5.1
Troy Tulowitzki	591	.930	135	30	103	9	.306	5.8	6.6
Justin Upton	615	.933	151	30	85	20	.315	4.6	6.9
Shane Victorino	506	.893	141	15	56	18	.319	5.1	6.3
Joey Votto	636	.967	161	26	91	7	.331	6.2	6.5

How I might rank them today:
1) Kemp
2) Upton
3) Braun
4) Tulowitzki
5) Victorino

Among other subjective observations, I would argue that 1) Kemp has had the worst lineup of the contenders surrounding him and had to carry more of the burden of his team, 2) none of the other top contenders are in any kind of pressure-filled pennant race.

Kershaw and Kemp still have work to do, but there’s still a good chance that they could win the awards. They would be the 19th teammates to do so but the first to win the awards simultaneously for a losing team (if the Dodgers don’t win 81 games, or 10 of their last 18.)

Kemp and Kershaw also remain contenders for the batting and pitching triple crowns. Kershaw leads the NL in ERA and strikeouts and trails Kennedy in victories by one. Since the Cy Young Award was established, no pitcher who has led his league in wins, ERA and strikeouts has failed to win the Cy Young Award, according to ESPN Stats and Information.

2007 Jake Peavy
2006 Johan Santana
2002 Randy Johnson
1999 Pedro Martinez
1998 Roger Clemens
1997 Roger Clemens
1985 Dwight Gooden
1972 Steve Carlton
1966 Sandy Koufax
1965 Sandy Koufax
1963 Sandy Koufax

For the batting triple crown, Kemp trails Jose Reyes in batting average by .016, Pujols in homers by two and Ryan Howard in RBI by four. Can he pass them by in a 161-game season?

Kershaw near perfect in 2-1 victory

On September 9, 2011

In Game wrap

Marcio Jose Sanchez/APClayton Kershaw

On the 46th anniversary of Sandy Koufax’s perfect game, Clayton Kershaw was nearly so.

The emphatic brilliance of Kershaw’s pitching renders any play-by-play account of tonight’s game too mundane. But I’ll give it a try.

The transcendent lefty allowed three hits in eight innings – two of them infield hits that, if fielded cleanly, would have been outs – while walking one and striking out nine in the Dodgers’ 2-1 victory over Tim Lincecum and the Giants.

San Francisco’s only run was unearned, thanks to a Dee Gordon error on the Giants’ leadoff hitter, Justin Christian. Admittedly, after Carlos Beltran drew San Francisco’s only walk and Pablo Sandoval drove in the run with the Giants’ only hit to the outfield, Gordon then saved Kershaw further damage with a highlight-reel catch of a soft looper to left field. Nevertheless, Kershaw had perfect-game quality stuff.

It looked for quite some time that it would all be for naught, that Kershaw would be the Bob Hendley in this replica of the Koufax perfect game. But the Dodgers twice scratched across runs.

In the eighth inning, with two out, Matt Kemp (2 for 4) hit a full-swing 40-foot grounder that stayed fair. Kemp stole second, thanks in part to a high throw from catcher Chris Stewart, then came around to score on a Juan Rivera single that came on Lincecum’s 122nd pitch of the game.

In the ninth inning, Rod Barajas led off with a single. Pinch-runner Eugenio Velez – or as I dared call him, “Vele on wheels” – went to second on Justin Sellers’ easy sacrifice and third on a wild pitch by Santiago Casilla.

And then, Jamey Carroll, batting for Kershaw, hit a grounder to second base. Jeff Keppinger fired home, but not in time to get Velez with the go-ahead run.

Javy Guerra retired the Giants in a perfect bottom of the ninth on 10 pitches, and the Dodgers had won the game. Los Angeles improved to 71-72 and closed to within 3 1/2 games of the Giants for second place in the National League West.

But probably more importantly to Dodger fans, Kershaw lowered his ERA to an NL-leading 2.36 while improving his own record to 18-5. Since June 15, his ERA is 1.55. Since July 7, his ERA is 1.19.

According to Jeff Fletcher of AOL Sports, Kershaw’s ERA in four head-to-head meetings with Lincecum is 0.62 (his rival is 2.03). Kershaw’s career ERA at AT&T Park is 0.45.

His WHIP in 2001 is 1.001.

Simply tremendous. For all the tribulations of 2011, it has been a privilege to watch Clayton Kershaw.

‘A pretty good line’

On September 9, 2011

Dodgers at Giants, 7:15 p.m.
Kershaw CXIII: Kershawpollo 13

Dee Gordon, SS
James Loney, 1B
Matt Kemp, CF
Juan Rivera, RF
Aaron Miles, 3B
Jerry Sands, RF
Rod Barajas, C
Justin Sellers, 2B
Clayton Kershaw, P

Vin Scully gave an interview to Daniel Riley of GQ in which he comments and reflects upon his greatest calls. There are audio recordings of the interview excerpts if you click the link; here’s GQ’s roughly transcribed version of how Scully’s comments on Kirk Gibson end:

… So when he hits the home run, the whole building… from the empty dugout to the walk, to him suddenly using the bat as a cane… it was just the most theatrical home run. And the place went crazy. I don’t know where it came from, but out came a line that later on I thought only could’ve come from The Boss. That line, ‘In a year of the improbable, the impossible has happened’ — which, I must admit, is a pretty good line — it just totally came out of nowhere. My heart, that’s where it came from, and God helped me out.”

Revisiting 1979

On September 9, 2011

In History, Status report

	Rock bottom	Turning point	Up top	All together
1979 Dodgers	36-57 (.387)	July 19	43-26 (.623)	79-83, third place, 11 1/2 GB
2011 Dodgers	37-51 (.420)	July 7	33-21 (.611)	70-72, third place, 12 GB (through Thursday)

After the 1979 season, the Dodgers rallied in 1980 to force a tie for the National League West title after 162 games. Proposal: We take the 163rd game away from 1980, which really did the Dodgers little good, and stick it at the end of the 2011 schedule, which is missing a game and where it will do much less harm.

Variety gives ‘Moneyball’ strong review

In Film

My Variety colleague Peter Debruge reviewed “Moneyball,” which premiered today at the Toronto Film Festival. Here are the first and last paragraphs:

Throwing the conventional sports-movie formula for a curve, “Moneyball” defies the logic that auds need a rousing third-act championship game to clinch their interest. Instead, writers Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin resurrect the old adage “It’s not whether you win or lose, but how you play the game” to drive this uncannily sharp, penetrating look at how Oakland Athletics general manager Billy Beane helped reinvent baseball based on statistics rather than conventional wisdom. Sparing auds the technicalities but not the spirit of financial reporter Michael Lewis’ business-of-baseball bestseller, “Moneyball” should appeal beyond — if not always to — the game’s fans. …

Another approach might have treated the source material as exposition for a more conventional baseball story, but “Moneyball” is content to draw back the curtain and find drama in the dealings. Miller’s low-key style suits that strategy nicely, breaking up shop-talk scenes with artful, quiet moments in which Beane steps away from the action, nicely captured by d.p. Wally Pfister. Though Soderbergh’s talking-heads idea fell by the wayside, the end result does employ a fair number of documentary techniques, cutting to MLB footage to illustrate the team’s on-field performance and featuring a score by Mychael Danna that echoes Philip Glass’ work on several Errol Morris pics.

“Moneyball” officially opens in theaters September 23.

Game 2 drowned out

The Dodgers’ quest for a .500 record has been thrown for a loop!

Game 2 of the Dodgers-Nationals doubleheader has been officially canceled without a makeup date, the Dodgers announced, meaning that the Dodgers will probably end up with no more than 161 games this season. They’re gonna need a lot more rain sometime this month to finish with the same number of wins and losses now.

With that out of the way, let’s all gather to watch Double-A Chattanooga in its Southern League playoff opener.

Dodgers get all-hands-on-deck victory, 7-4

In Game wrap

Dodgers at Nationals, weather permitting

Justin Sellers, SS
Tony Gwynn Jr., LF
Matt Kemp, CF
Juan Rivera, 1B
Russ Mitchell, 3B
Jerry Sands, RF
A.J. Ellis, C
Jamey Carroll, 2B
Dana Eveland, P

Tony Gwynn Jr.’s two-run double in the ninth broke a 4-4 tie and propelled the Dodgers to a 7-4 victory in the first game of their scheduled doubleheader against Washington today.

The Dodgers took a funky approach to building a 4-0 lead. Dee Gordon, who went 4 for 5, was thrown out at home twice on fielder’s choice grounders by Matt Kemp, and each time Juan Rivera followed with a two-run double.

After the Nationals tied the game against Chad Billingsley, the teams remained scoreless until the ninth, when Gwynn drove home Jerry Sands (who was hit by a pitch) and Rod Barajas. Gordon then followed with an RBI single to cap the Dodgers’ scoring.

Javy Guerra, the seventh Dodger pitcher (all six relievers throwing hitless ball), pitched the ninth inning to pick up his 16th save, with Mike MacDougal surviving a leadoff walk in the eighth to get the win. Josh Lindblom pitched a career-high 2 1/3 innings in relief of Billingsley.

Billingsley’s tailspin: approach or injury?