Dodger Thoughts

Jon Weisman's outlet for dealing psychologically with the Los Angeles Dodgers, baseball and life

Page 311 of 381

Tumblin’ dice

Next roll for Andre Ethier – longest April hitting streak in major-league history. From the Dodgers via Elias Sports Bureau and Trent McCotter from the Society of American Baseball Research:

Joe Torre (22), April 6-28, 1972
Danny Bautista (21), April 7-30, 2004
Rico Carty (20), April 8-30, 1970
Andre Ethier (20), April 2-current, 2011
Steve Garvey (20), April 7-30, 1978

Seasons used to start later than they do today.

The longest hitting streak by a Dodger since 1988 is Paul Lo Duca’s 25-game skein in 2003. Here’s the all-time Dodger top 10:

31 Willie Davis, 1969
27 Joe Medwick, 1942
27 Duke Snider, 1953
25 Paul Lo Duca, 2003
25 Steve Sax, 1986
25 Willie Davis, 1971
25 Buzz Boyle, 1934
25 Harvey Hendrick, 1929
24 John Shelby, 1988
24 Zack Wheat, 1924

Longest consecutive-game streaks for a Dodger reaching base:

58 Duke Snider, 1954
53 Shawn Green, 2000
47 Ron Cey, 1975
44 Len Koenecke, 1934
44 Zack Wheat, 1919
43 Augie Galan, 1945
41 Eric Karros, 1994
40 Babe Herman, 1926
39 Steve Saz, 1986
39 Billy Grabarkewitz, 1970
39 Duke Snider, 1953
39 Jim Gilliam, 1953

The Snider and Gilliam streaks intersected for 21 days in August.

And once more around the block for Brett Tomko …

You didn’t see him mentioned in my last post because he hasn’t gotten into a game yet, but Brett Tomko is back in the majors, with Texas. Richard Durrett of ESPNDallas.com has the story.

Here are some other links from the past week …

Russell Martin has gone nuts


Rob Carr/Getty ImagesRussell Martin is congratulated after his second home run tonight.

Russell Martin has hit two home runs tonight and now has six in 16 games with the Yankees. In 97 games with the Dodgers last season, he hit five.

Martin has a .400 on-base percentage and .722 slugging percentage in 2011. There was always the chance he would bounce back, but this is ridiculous.

Here’s how some other recent ex-Dodgers are doing this season (stats through Friday).

OPS (Plate appearances)
1.000 (17) Reed Johnson, Cubs
.983 (56) Russell Martin, Yankees
.980 (58) Wilson Betemit, Royals
.810 (59) J.D. Drew, Red Sox
.750 (16) Andruw Jones, Yankees
.736 (91) Ryan Theriot, Cardinals
.700 (33) Andy LaRoche, A’s
.658 (54) Jim Thome, Twins
.646 (82) Orlando Hudson, Padres
.646 (16) Blake DeWitt, Cubs
.637 (59) Wilson Valdez, Phillies
.628 (94) Juan Pierre, White Sox
.343 (15) Jason Repko, Twins
.182 (12) Chin-Lung Hu, Mets
.118 (17) Manny Ramirez, Rays
.000 (7) Cody Ross, Giants

ERA (Innings)
2.16 (8 1/3) Danys Baez, Phillies
3.18 (22 2/3) Randy Wolf, Brewers
3.21 (14) Guillermo Mota, Giants
3.25 (27 2/3) Derek Lowe, Braves
3.51 (25 2/3) Edwin Jackson, White Sox
3.86 (4 2/3) George Sherrill, Braves
5.40 (5) Octavio Dotel, Blue Jays
6.00 (3) Joe Beimel, Rockies
8.44 (21 1/3) Brad Penny, Tigers
8.59 (7 1/3) Will Ohman, White Sox
9.00 (2) Takashi Saito, Braves
10.13 (18 2/3) James McDonald, Pirates

McDonald has allowed 16 earned runs in his past eight innings. Penny threw seven innings of one-hit, shutout ball today to lower his ERA to 6.35 and beat Jackson, who allowed seven runs.

Dodgers out-rallied in 10-8 loss to Cubs


Nam Y. Huh/APMatt Kemp was ivy bait in the early going, before the seeds were planted for a Dodger comeback.

This looked like one of those balance-the-scales games – everything that went right for the Dodgers on Friday would go wrong today.

Then it looked like a testament to the Dodgers’ resiliency over a tumultuous week.

In the end, it turned out to be one of those “Who knows, anything goes” contests we’ve seen time and again from the blue boys. The Dodgers stormed back from a 5-1 deficit to an 8-5 lead today in Chicago, before previously unscored-upon reliever Matt Guerrier allowed five smackers in the bottom of the eighth for a 10-8 Dodger loss.

Despite starting pitcher Ted Lilly allowing 11 hits to 23 batters, despite Jerry Sands losing a fly ball in the sun, despite two outfield misplays by Matt Kemp, despite the Dodgers picking off two runners in the fourth inning and throwing out neither, Los Angeles looked like it would roll to a four-game winning streak after rallying for seven unanswered runs from the fifth inning to the seventh.

Homers by Casey Blake (2 for 3, two walks, .962 OPS this season) and Kemp off Chicago’s Ryan Dempster accounted for three runs in the top of the fifth inning, cutting the Cubs’ lead to one. Then came a noteworthy decision by Cubs manager Mike Quade.

Lilly exited after allowing a one-out single in the bottom of the fifth, and Mike MacDougal walked two of the next three batters to load the bases. That brought up Dempster, who was coming off his rough top of the fifth and was already in the neighborhood of 90 pitches. Quade let Dempster bat, and though he nearly got away with it when MacDougal’s wildness sent the count to 2-0 and 3-2, Dempster struck out swinging.

Dempster’s next batter, Rod Barajas, homered to tie the game to start the sixth.

Perhaps the most dramatic moment came later in the inning. After Tony Gwynn Jr.’s pinch-triple and Casey Blake’s two-out walk, Quade finally pulled Dempster in favor of lefty reliever Sean Marshall. Marshall faced Andre Ethier, who was 5 for 23 against left-handers this season. With his 19-game hitting streak was on the line. On a 1-2 pitch, Ethier lined a double to right field, scoring both runners and giving the Dodgers the lead.

Sands later helped manufacture the Dodgers’ eighth run when he singled, stole second, went to third on a throwing error and scored on a Barajas groundout even though the infield was in.

Jemaine Clement
-lookalike Vicente Padilla protected the lead in his season debut, retiring all three batters he faced in the sixth, and Guerrier sailed through the bottom of the seventh. But the Cubs pummeled Guerrier in the eighth.

Starlin Castro, the 21-year-old who went 4 for 5 to raise his season OPS to .947, drove in two, and then an RBI forceout by Darwin Barney tied the game. A bloop single by Aramis Ramirez extended the inning and knocked Guerrier out. Blake Hawkworth relieved, and gave up a two-run double to Baker to complete the eighth-inning disaster.

James Loney tried to tie the game in the ninth with a fly ball after Sands walked, but like his 2011 season, it fell far short. Carlos Marmol struck out Barajas, and the game was over.

Loney went 0 for 5, his on-base percentage falling to .191 and his slugging percentage to .212.

The Cubs continued their unprecedented run of early season .500 baseball. They have been 1-1, 2-2, 3-3, 4-4, 5-5, 6-6, 7-7, 8-8, 9-9 and now 10-10 this year. The Dodgers, meanwhile, fell to 11-11.

* * *

In case you weren’t sure, Hector Gimenez’s knee injury is legit. Gimenez, who was placed on the disabled list April 10 to (conveniently, it seemed) make room for the callup of John Ely, will have arthroscopic surgery next week. Tony Jackson of ESPNLosAngeles.com has details in a story that also heralds a minor-league rehab assignment for Hong-Chih Kuo and tells us about leg-soreness for Juan Uribe.

* * *

Here’s Jackson’s update from Don Mattingly on the controversial A.J. Ellis steal attempt from Friday:

… Mattingly, in his first year as Dodgers manager, confirmed it was a mix-up but defended a running play in that situation.

“Long story short, we missed the sign,” Mattingly said. “We weren’t trying to run there. Definitely weren’t going to run A.J. We weren’t doing it but it is Wrigley and the other day we did give up eight runs in the ninth. We’re trying to win a game, but we weren’t running there.” …

With what happened today, I suggested Quade issue a retroactive approval of the steal attempt.

Write this down: You can try to steal with a big lead

Cubs manager Mike Quade is mad that A.J. Ellis attempted to steal with the Dodgers holding a seven-run lead in the fifth inning Friday, writes Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago.com. Preposterous.

Just as it’s crazy to be told that you’re not allowed to bunt for a base hit to break up a no-hitter, even if the game is close, it’s just plain dumb to suggest that a team with a lead should stop trying in the middle of a game. Should the Dodgers stop trying to get on base as well?

What’s funny is that the supposed insult didn’t even come with, say, the 10-run lead in the ninth. Four more runs were scored after Ellis was thrown out stealing. If the Cubs had scored those runs, the game would have been back in doubt, just like that.

What’s funniest is that someone, as soon as today, will purposely throw a baseball near someone else’s head, and we’ll be told that’s the mature response.

“I’ve got to brush up on my unwritten rules things,” Quade said. “There might be a Los Angeles and Milwaukee (referring to a similar incident) version I need to read.”

Sometimes sarcasm speaks the truth.

* * *

  • Today, Andre Ethier can tie Steve Garvey (1978) for the longest Los Angeles Dodger hitting streak ever in April.
  • I didn’t get around to mentioning this earlier, but Vicente Padilla was activated Friday and Ramon Troncoso was optioned.

Dodgers give Cubs walking pneumonia in 12-2 victory

With two out in the eighth inning, Dodger second baseman Juan Uribe worked the count to 3-2, and Friday’s game reached the height of suspense. With one more ball, Uribe could become the ninth and final member of the Dodger starting lineup to draw a walk. If you want to wager on the Dodgers, platforms like buy 4D online can be trusted.

Alas, Uribe swung and grounded to short.  But hold on – there was still one more inning, a ninth inning that saw the Dodgers send eight men to the plate.  Matt Kemp stood at the plate with Uribe on deck, swinging his walking stick.

Alas, Kemp flied to right on the Cubs’ 230th pitch of the game, and Uribe was left bereft.

Despite this failing, there was a bright side to Friday’s game.  The Dodgers drew 10 walks in all and slung out 14 hits in a 12-2 romp over the Cubs, doubling the Dodgers’ previous biggest margin of victory of the season. Over a three-day period, the Dodgers have outscored their opponents 23-6, moving into a virtual tie with the Giants for second place in the National League West, three games behind Colorado.

Uribe’s week-long surge has been a big part of that. Since Sunday, the slow-starting import from San Francisco has gone 10 for 23 with two homers and nine RBI.  Betting on him to walk is still a slim proposition – he’s done so once against seven strikeouts this week – but it’s made a big difference to have someone below the cleanup spot hitting the ball, even if more hope had been placed in Jerry Sands.

Sands was the only Dodger starter to go hitless Friday, though he did walk with the bases loaded in the Dodgers’ six-run third inning. The rookie is hitless in his past 13 plate appearances, which looks bad, although Uribe could certainly tell him things could be worse. (Uribe, by the way, is not in today’s starting lineup for the Dodgers.)

Kemp, Jamey Carroll, Casey Blake, Andre Ethier and A.J. Ellis all reached base three times Friday, while Uribe, James Loney and Chad Billingsley did so twice. Blake, Ethier, Kemp and Ellis all have on-base percentages about .400.  Marcus Thames added his second pinch-hit homer of the season.

Meanwhile, in his second consecutive nice start, Billingsley did not allow an earned run until the seventh inning. He has struck out 27 in 28 1/3 innings. Also bouncing back were Kenley Jansen (four strikeouts in 1 2/3 perfect innings) and Lance Cormier (a shutout ninth).

Ellis allowed a passed ball in the fourth inning that cost Billingsley a chance at a shutout; Carroll and Blake later made errors.

The thin line between ebb and flow: Dodgers 5, Braves 3

I was prepared to write a pretty quick take on Thursday’s game, along the lines of how weird it is that Juan Uribe only seems to hit well when Matt Kemp doesn’t.

And then Kemp, who had struck out three times earlier in the game, went and hit … very, very well. 

Kemp’s two-run home run in the bottom of the 12th inning was his second walkoff shot in five days, beating the Braves, 5-3, and helping the Dodgers reach a split of their first 20 games this season despite being outscored 94-68 in the process.

Los Angeles will try for the fifth time this year for its first three-game winning streak of the year today in Chicago.

Kemp’s blast was his fourth of 2011, putting him on pace for 30-plus homers this season (along with 60-odd steals). It also helped him stay ahead in the team OPS lead ahead of Andre Ethier, who extended his hitting streak to 18 games with two hits, including a double ahead of Kemp’s home run.

Few could understand why the Braves didn’t walk Kemp intentionally in the 12th to face Uribe. Considering that Kemp’s run was meaningless, the only possible explanation was a flimsy one – that based on the previous 3 1/2 days, Atlanta thought Uribe was the most dangerous hitter. After starting the season 8 for 52, Uribe was 7 for 16 against the Braves, including his first home run of the season to tie Thursday’s game 1-1 in the sixth inning.

To each manager his own …

Casey Blake’s solo shot in the next inning put the Dodgers ahead and seemed to give Clayton Kershaw all he needed for the victory. Kershaw, who retired his first 10 batters and took a three-hitter into the ninth (in addition to a career-high two hits at the plate), came within one out of breezing to the finish line before he loaded the bases on two singles and a walk. 

Don Mattingly went to the mound to talk to Kershaw, who had now thrown 119 pitches. Instead of going to Jonathan Broxton, Mattingly stayed with Kershaw. Given how Broxton has pitched lately, I know there was lots of support for this decision. I’m not sure I would have done differently while standing face-to-face with the pitcher, but from afar, the walk to load the bases might have been as far as I would have let Kershaw go. Mattingly had already tried letting Kershaw bail himself out of his own jam with a high pitch count in his last start, and Kershaw gave up a deep fly by David Freese and a three-run homer by Mr. Allen Craig of St. Louis.

My other concern is that Kershaw has now set a career high in pitches in two of his past three starts, throwing 340 pitches in 11 days.  

Kershaw got ahead in the count 0-2, then gave up a two-run single to former Dodger David Ross, but Jamey Carroll and Blake (3 for 6) bailed the pitcher out in the bottom of the ninth. Carroll walked, took second on a wild pitch and scored on Blake’s single.

Broxton, who relieved Kershaw after Ross’ hit, retired four of five batters he faced, and then Matt Guerrier pitched two shutout innings, surviving two two-out singles in the 11th before a 1-2-3 12th.

At which point, the game flowed back to Kemp …

* * *

Cubs at Dodgers, 11:20 a.m.

April 21 game chat

Since Wednesday’s big news, there’s a guy I’ve been wanting to extend an online handshake to. Rob McMillin and I communicated extensively during the run-up to the McCourt purchase of the Dodgers in late 2003-early 2004 – the saga was a big reason why he founded 6-4-2, one of Southern California’s earliest baseball blogs. At the time, I think we felt like proverbial voices in the wilderness in our suspicion of the worthiness of McCourt.

So much has happened since then, but I just wanted to say how much I enjoyed our back-and-forth and the friendship that came from it.

Kershaw LXXXVIII: Kershawtel California
Braves at Dodgers, 12:10 p.m.

The irredeemable Frank McCourt

This is a column about last straws.

Today, Major League Baseball commissioner Bud Selig indicated he had been handed his last straw with regards to Frank McCourt’s stewardship of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Selig responded by giving his office control of the Dodgers’ operations.

Speculation is that the last straw for Selig was a reported $30 million personal loan that McCourt received from Fox that was believed to be necessary to meet the Dodgers’ payroll obligations — the latest indication of how fragile McCourt’s financial underpinnings are. But if it wasn’t this loan, it could or would have been something else.

As I walked through all the different stories about today’s news, as if I were a shopper in a McCourt Mall of Horrors, I found myself thinking about the person whose name has been in the news, top of mind, every day this month until today: Bryan Stow.

The Giants fan whose horrifying beating in the gloaming of Opening Day in the Dodger Stadium parking lot March 31 will not be found on any McCourt spreadsheet. The severity of the event, sadly enough, wasn’t even unprecedented in Dodger Stadium history.

But in the days after it occurred, as you felt the groundswell of horror and shame sweep through the world of the Dodgers — an emotional wave that only gained momentum with McCourt’s initial public declaration that nothing could have been done to prevent it — I began to feel that Stow’s beating, more than any rising parking fees, inconsistent spending on players or appalling revelations of greed in court documents related to McCourt’s divorce from wife Jamie, was the baseball world’s “network” moment.

It was just too ugly, and people weren’t going to take it anymore.  

I think McCourt realized this, too, which is why, at a certain point this month, you started to see almost daily releases, media conferences or other kinds of announcements determined to show his commitment to rehabilitating the Dodgers’ (and in turn, his) relationship with the fans and baseball.

But more and more fans weren’t buying it. I haven’t been at Dodger Stadium in the past week, and I’m also familiar with no-shows dotting Dodger Stadium in the best of times, but there have been too many reports to ignore from longtime Dodger watchers that things had really changed. I’ve been a passionate skeptic of fan boycotts, but even I have to concede that there was a statement being made here. More and more people just didn’t want any part of this.

The thing is, it hasn’t been an organized boycott, not on any widespread level. It’s been people on their own coming to the conclusion that life was too short to waste on a franchise in this condition. 

This includes people like my father, who chose during the offseason not to renew my family’s season tickets for a 30th season. It also includes the people who typically would improvise their ticket purchases after the season was underway.

That’s not to say Dodger Stadium was or would be empty. Some still show up because they love the team through thick and decidedly thin. The game’s pull remains strong. I myself have been trying to figure out when to get my kids to their first game of 2011. 

But things haven’t been this low at Dodger Stadium before, have they? I think back to 1992, the worst team in Los Angeles Dodger history playing against the backdrop of a city torn by riots, and there was not such bitterness over the state of ownership.

Dodgers fans have been wandering through a desert of uncertainty and dismay for well more than a year since the McCourts’ marital strife put control of the team in limbo. What the Bryan Stow incident did, besides put the life of a man in jeopardy, was amplify the fear that with McCourt in charge, there might be no bottom.

It wasn’t that there would be nothing to excite us — the joy of Clayton Kershaw, the signing of Zach Lee, the sizzling start of Matt Kemp or even the lovely melodies of Nancy Bea. But Stow seemed to destroy an illusion that the team would ever get ahead, that behind each high there wouldn’t be a more severe low.

Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe the shock of the Stow beating, combined with a team that had been outscored in 2011 more than any other in the National League, engineered nothing more than a temporary blindness to the light at the end of the tunnel.

But I’m not sure I’m wrong. Moreover, though I can’t draw a cause-effect line between the Stow incident and Selig’s decision today — a decision that was building over time — I can’t get myself to think anything but that the brutality and its aftermath were a spiritual last straw. Whatever rope McCourt had to work with, whatever fear Selig has that McCourt might turn his legal ugliness against the game of baseball itself, was gone.  

In any case, if Selig’s decision was nothing more than a decision based purely on finances, it’s done. And even though there have been three playoff appearances during the McCourt ownership, even though there is uncertainty over how this will play out, I’m here to say … I’m excited. 

There will be problems, short-term and long-term, but I don’t see much reason to think the Dodgers will be any less capable of making moves to better the organization on or off the field than they were before today. There is a question of whether the next stewards will be good ones, but tonight, I do see the light.

It was more than seven years ago, during the months leading up to the official transition of Dodgers ownership, that I began expressing my fears that McCourt was borrowing too much money and keeping too many secrets to trust as an owner. Those fears were realized in a way that I couldn’t even comprehend at the time. You can check back in with me later on, but tonight, my fears for the future of the Dodgers are non-existent by comparison.

No more last straws.

Topsy-turvy day ends with Dodger victory

Juan Uribe went 3 for 4 with four RBI; Matt Kemp struck out three times and was caught stealing. Yes, 2011 Dodger history is being rewritten as we speak.

A 6-1 Dodger victory, also powered by Andre Ethier’s single, double and home run and Jon Garland’s 108-pitch complete game, makes for a nice bookmark.

MLB takes over operations of Dodgers

Marking an extraordinary and unprecedented moment in the history of the Dodgers, the office of Major League Baseball commissioner Bud Selig has announced he will appoint a representative to take over day-to-day operations of the franchise. Frank McCourt seemingly has had the keys to the kingdom taken away, with Dodger employees answering to a representative of the commissioner to be named soon.

I’ll have a longer reaction to this tonight on Dodger Thoughts, but here’s my initial thought: I remember when President Nixon had to announce his resignation, and on a personal level, this feels no less momentous.

Full story here. Updates to come on ESPNLA.com.

Braves at Dodgers, 7:10 p.m.

Dodger bullpen just sad

The 2011 Dodger bullpen to date:

Jonathan Broxton: 7 1/3 innings, 13 baserunners, five strikeouts
Hong-Chih Kuo (disabled list): 2 2/3 innings, five baserunners, four strikeouts
Matt Guerrier: 8 2/3 innings, six baserunners, five strikeouts
Kenley Jansen: 8 2/3 innings, 19 baserunners, 13 strikeouts
Blake Hawksworth: 9 2/3 innings, 13 baserunners, six strikeouts
Mike MacDougal: 7 1/3 innings, nine baserunners, four strikeouts
Lance Cormier: seven innings, 16 baserunners, two strikeouts
Ramon Troncoso: 2 2/3 innings, 12 baserunners, zero strikeouts
Total: 54 innings, 93 baserunners, 39 strikeouts

Hmm …

At least Vicente Padilla might be back soon. He struck out three in 1 1/3 innings Tuesday in his second minor-league rehab outing. He could replace Troncoso.

Will Rubby De La Rosa get a rapid promotion like Jerry Sands? It doesn’t seem impossible, though I think the Dodgers would like the inexperienced minor-leaguer to get more starting-pitcher innings under his belt.

Jansen’s performance has been shocking, but I would keep him on the major-league roster for now.

* * *

Not that I’m expecting Ivan De Jesus Jr. to be a savior for the moribund offense, but with journeyman Aaron Miles offering seven singles, a double, an HBP, a sacrifice and no walks in 37 plate appearances, maybe Don Mattingly could throw some at-bats to the kid.

About that offense, here’s Tony Jackson of ESPNLosAngeles.com:

… When you really examine it, though, it isn’t that hard to figure out. Juan Uribe, as he has done for most of his career, continues to flail at just about anything that is thrown within a mile of the strike zone. James Loney has brought his second-half nosedive of 2010 into 2011. And how about that pinch-hitting appearance by the still-gimpy Marcus Thames in the seventh inning, when he whiffed on three consecutive pitches from Braves reliever Jonny Venters with the tying run on third and one out?

And speaking of key situations, the Dodgers (8-10) — who fell into a third-place tie with the San Diego Padres in the National League West and still trail the division-leading Colorado Rockies by 4 1/2 games — are now hitting .184 (28 for 152) for the season with runners in scoring position, with 35 strikeouts.

And after Casey Blake grounded out to leave the bases loaded in the seventh, at a point when the Dodgers trailed by one run, the Dodgers were hitless in eight at-bats this year with the bases jammed. Not sure which is worse, the fact they have gone 18 games without getting a hit with the bases loaded, or the fact they have had the bases loaded for just eight at-bats. …

Even more simply, the Dodger offense has a .306 on-base percentage and a .344 slugging percentage. Not far from what was predicted, not enough to get the job done, especially with the pitching staff’s disappointing 4.87 ERA.

Day 2 of the Jerry Sands era

Can the new blood top his out-of the-gate double, his majestic sacrifice fly, his rip-roaring outfield play or his brave strikeouts from his debut Monday?

A different set of problems for Jonathan Broxton

Well, here it is.

I suppose it isn’t my place to be the official historian of how and when the criticisms of Jonathan Broxton began, but I feel I’m on safe ground saying that they were born in anger over his failure to close some high-profile games, most notably in the 2008 National League Championship Series and then again in 2009. 

In a stretch that extended into June 2010, the flames were lit every time Broxton disappointed in what was labeled a “high-profile” game, though there were games just as prominent in which Broxton breezed, as well an overwhelming record of success in other games. From 2006 through the first half of 2010, Broxton had nearly 12 strikeouts per nine innings, more strikeouts than baseunners allowed. He blew people away, time and again, in critically important moments.

I really think it’s important to be clear about this. For the longest time, the concern that Broxton’s detractors had was not that he couldn’t get anyone out, but just that he wouldn’t get the job done in October. The explanation offered the most was that he didn’t have the backbone, guts or other relevant body part to succeed under pressure. 

I never bought into that argument, because I saw Broxton succeed too many times under pressure – including in the playoffs – to see a pattern, and that given another opportunity, there were more reasons to believe he would succeed than there were that he’d fail. Many more reasons. Baseball history is filled with onetime October failures who found redemption.

Would you have abandoned Mariano Rivera after Game 7 in 2001? Would you have abandoned Dennis Eckersley after Game 1 in 1988? Would you have stood by him just because he had a tough-looking mustache?

The stats did tell the story. Broxton dominated. He wasn’t perfect. He was merely superb.

The problems of Jonathan Broxton today are different problems entirely.

Broxton is having trouble getting people out, period. He has retired the side in order once in eight outings. He has allowed 13 base runners in 7 1/3 innings while striking out five. He’s being touched not just in save situations but in non-save situations. He’s allowing runs not in playoff games in October, but mid-week games in April.

It’s a continuation of the way he has pitched since late-June, after the 48-pitch nightmare against the Yankees at the end of a week of heavy use, when his touch abandoned him. 

The anti-Broxton corps is feeling validated, on the theory, I guess, that the confidence problems they perceived early on have spread to his entire game. (There’s also a theory that Broxton’s repertoire was so simplistic that it was inevitable he’d be solved by opposing batters, though this seems to ignore that Rivera has essentially been throwing the same single pitch for about a decade and a half.)

I won’t be so arrogant that I’ll insist they’re wrong, but I will offer what I still believe to be a more logical explanation: relief pitchers, like NFL running backs, have inherently short shelf lives – I’ve been providing analysis of this for nearly the entire life of Dodger Thoughts – and Broxton is looking more like someone who is simply having the arc of a reliever. It’s the job.  

I’m still not even convinced this is the end for Broxton as a topflight reliever – it’s still April. Are we giving up on Kenley Jansen, who has had an even worse month? 

But perhaps it Broxton’s time. That being said, whether he’s the closer or a middle reliever isn’t relevant. If you don’t believe the guy can get three outs with a four-run lead, you’re basically saying you don’t believe in him, period.

There is one thing I will insist on, however. For nearly five seasons – an eternity for most relievers, longer than, for example, the elite tenures of Eric Gagne or Takashi Saito as Dodgers – Jonathan Broxton was a great, great relief pitcher. The NLCS losses were crushing – indeed, for many they were poisonous – but he’s hardly the first great hurler who has pitches he’d like to get back. He has truly been one of the best relief pitchers in Los Angeles Dodger history, whether his best days are over or not.

How close is Jerry Sands? He’s here

I think I might always remember the moment, or approximate moment, that Jerry Sands was called up by the Dodgers. I was having an extremely rare weekday afternoon margarita at one of our big family gatherings of the week, and looking around the table at my wife reunited with her family and my kids with their East Coast cousins. To make a long story short, I’ve been having a hard time feeling optimistic about some things, but as I breathed in the scene, I suddenly not only told myself I should be more positive, I actually believed that I could.

That sentiment, I knew, might last little longer than the margarita, but lo and behold, I came out of the restaurant a couple hours later, quickly checked e-mails on my cellphone and saw that the Dodgers had made what could be a similar, happily desperate declaration in promoting Sands.

Sands, whose name I also came to realize today reminds me more of a slacks-wearing pro chipping in on the 18th hole to win at Pebble Beach, takes the roster spot of Xavier Paul, whom the Dodgers designated for assignment, as Tony Jackson of ESPNLosAngeles.com notes. That tradeoff in itself tells you the perils of placing faith in a minor leaguer to fill a gaping hole in the Dodger lineup. Paul was never a Dodger minor-league hitter of the year the way Sands was last year, but the guy had a fairly strong career in the Dodger farm system, only to go by the same wayside as (take your pick) Delwyn Young or Cody Ross.

So of course we keep our expectations of Sands as sober as I now find myself, especially on the on-base percentage side as he faces major-league pitching for the first time, less than a year out of Single-A ball. But his power nevertheless offers the possibility of something the Dodgers desperately need after cleanup hitter Matt Kemp: a threat. Until Juan Uribe and James Loney figure themselves out, why not Sands? It’s worth a shot, and even if he falls short, I expect the early exposure to the bigs will instruct more than it will harm.

What’s funny is as dramatic as this move might seem, we could see it coming months ago. From this winter’s “How close is he?” series:

Summary: From age 22 1/2 to age 23, Sands had a .395 on-base percentage and .586 slugging percentage with 35 homers in 590 plate appearances combined at Single-A Great Lakes and Double-A Chattanooga. In Double-A, Sands posted a .360/.529 with 17 homers in 303 plate appearances. 

For comparison’s sake: From age 22 to age 22 1/2, Andre Ethier delivered a .383/.442 with seven homers in 471 plate appearances, all in Single-A. Then from age 23 to 23 1/2, Ethier offered .385/.497 with 18 homers in 572 plate appearances in Double-A (not counting a 17-plate appearance cup o’ joe at Triple-A). After starting 2006 strongly with the Dodgers’ Triple-A team, Ethier was promoted to the majors three weeks after turning 24. 

Sobering: Sands struck out in about a quarter of his at-bats in the minors last year. 

For what it’s worth: A younger Matt Kemp arrived in Los Angeles mere months after going .349/.569 in Single-A, and was in the majors for good less than two years after that Single-A year. 

Quick and dirty conclusion: Obviously, Sands and Ethier are not the same player. Ethier had a better OBP but less power in the minors, among other differences. Still, I did find the juxtaposition interesting. It seems entirely plausible that Sands could get a quick promotion to Albuquerque in 2011. That would position him to make his big-league debut before the year is out and leave him a serious contender for a starting role in 2012. 

Though there is almost zero chance Sands would start 2011 in the majors after only a half-season in Double-A – because Ned Colletti teams give veterans first crack in April – how Sands develops this year, against the background of how the Dodger major-league outfield shapes up, could speed up his timetable. He is also a potential understudy to James Loney.

We’ll see where Sands ends up ultimately. But tonight, I’m going to think positively. I could do worse.

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