Jon Weisman – Page 277 – Dodger Thoughts

On October 5, 2011

Jesse Johnson/US PresswireJuan Castro

The setup: The long-respected defender played in exactly one game for the Dodgers in 2010, his third separate stint with the team. Nonetheless, in December, Los Angeles re-signed him as a minor-league free agent. He almost retired in March after not making the Opening Day roster, but ended up heading to the minors — where he promptly missed a month with an oblique injury. Still, once he was back on the field, was there any doubt he’d find his way back to Dodger Stadium? On May 13, almost exactly 20 years after the Dodgers signed him as an amateur free agent at age 19, the Dodgers brought Castro up from Albuquerque, sending Ivan De Jesus Jr. down to play in Triple-A regularly.

The closeup: Castro helped the Dodgers to two extra-inning wins, on May 20 against the White Sox and on June 4 in Cincinnati, where he had a leadoff single in Los Angeles’ four-run 11th inning. But two days later, when the Dodgers decided to launch the Dee Gordon era in the wake of another Rafael Furcal injury, Castro was designated for assignment. On June 10, he retired from baseball, finishing his season with a career-high .286 batting average (4 for 14) and his playing career with a.595 OPS in 1,103 games over 17 seasons. Rarely charged with errors, Castro also has the 15th-highest fielding percentage for shortstops in MLB history. His retirement arguably paved the way for Eugenio Velez to become a Dodger a month later.

Coming attractions: It was initially reported that Castro would be a special assistant to Ned Colletti, but he is actually serving as a minor-league roving instructor for the Dodgers.

Remembering 2011: Casey Blake

On October 5, 2011

Jesse Johnson/US PresswireCasey Blake

The setup: After an .832 OPS in his first full season as a Dodger in 2009, Blake played in 146 games in 2010 but fell to a .727 OPS. The Dodgers believed going into 2011 that Blake would need more regular rest to remain productive.

The closeup: Forget about rest: Blake hit the disabled list before Opening Day, setting the tone for an injury-riddled season. When he did play in April, he was actually red hot, with a .446 on-base percentage and .509 slugging percentage in 14 games, only to return to the DL before the month was over. When he was activated in late May, he started out 5 for 16, but then suffered through a rough June: .250 on-base percentage, .262 slugging. His third trip to injured reserve soon followed, taking him out for most of July. He was his average self in August (.720 OPS), but on September 1, he finally succumbed to ongoing and career-threatening neck issues and called it a season. He finished his whip-around year with a .713 OPS but played in only 63 games, hitting four home runs.

Coming attractions: For a ballplayer who didn’t become a major-league regular until he was 29, Blake has had a fine career: .336 on-base percentage, .442 slugging and 167 home runs while playing a solid third base. Whether he adds to it remains to be seen. The rumors of his impending retirement might be exaggerated, but how much the 38-year-old family man with five kids ages 10 and under wants to spend another year in the bigs destined to be a reserve is unclear. At a minimum, he became in his 3 1/2-year Dodger tenure one of the team’s top-five third basemen ever in Los Angeles.

Remembering 2011: Nathan Eovaldi

John Amis/APNathan Eovaldi

The setup: Having spent most of 2010 in Single-A ball with Rancho Cucamonga, for whom he posted a 4.45 ERA with 6.1 strikeouts per nine innings, Eovaldi was slated for nothing more than a year’s worth of learning with Chattanooga in the calm of the Double-A Southern League. But his banner season — 2.62 ERA, 99 strikeouts in 103 innings — combined with injuries to Jon Garland, Vicente Padilla and Rubby De La Rosa, vaulted Eovaldi into the Dodger starting rotation August 6.

The closeup: Eovaldi made six starts for the Dodgers before they pulled the 21-year-old into the bullpen as a workload precaution. In all but one of the starts he pitched at least five innings and allowed no more than two runs, and if not for a sun-aided bloop double that fell in front of Trent Oeltjen against Colorado on August 28, Eovaldi could have easily gone 6 for 6. Even so, he had a 3.09 ERA as a starter with a .649 opponents’ OPS. Of more concern is that he allowed 43 baserunners in 32 innings while striking out 23. His Expected Fielding Independent Pitching ERA (xFIP), according to Fangraphs, was 4.80.

After his final start, Eovaldi went nine days without pitching in a game, then faced only 15 batters over a 15-day stretch as a reliever, with seven of them reaching base.

Coming attractions: With De La Rosa needing most if not all of 2012 to recover from Tommy John surgery, Eovaldi is a leading contender to take a place in the Dodger starting rotation — though it’s far from impossible that, if Hiroki Kuroda returns, the Dodgers might find a way to start Eovaldi in the minors again. There’s great respect for the three-level leap that U-less made this year, but whether he’s ready to sustain that over an entire major-league season at age 22 remains somewhat in doubt. Nathaniel Stoltz’s analysis at Seedlings to Stars (via Lasorda’s Lair) suggests that Eovaldi might be too reliant on his fastball.

Will Adrian Beltre reach the Hall of Fame?

Lynne Sladky/APAdrian Beltre hit 147 home runs in seven seasons with the Dodgers, all before turning 26.

Adrian Beltre, who hit three home runs today in the Texas Rangers’ 4-3 victory over Tampa Bay (clinching their American League Division Series), has 2,033 hits and 310 home runs in his career at age 32, to go with a superb defensive reputation. How many of you think the former Dodger third baseman will play well enough, long enough, to win the favor of Hall of Fame voters?

Beltre is likely to finish in the top five all-time among third basemen in hits, though I imagine he’ll need to make it all the way to 3,000 to win enough Hall votes and avoid the fate of the Ron Santos of the world. When his time comes, would that number still be a golden ticket, or could something like Beltre’s relatively low on-base percentage hold him back?

Texas has Beltre under contract for four more seasons, with a vesting option for a fifth. If he can average 140 hits per season, he’d be in the 2,700 or 2,800 neighborhood when his contract expires.

Dodgers part ways with Blake, Garland

In Ownership, Transactions

As expected, the Dodgers have paid $1.25 million to buy out Casey Blake’s $6 million contract option for 2012, while also declining Jon Garland’s $8 million option for next season (at a cost of $500,000). Tony Jackson of ESPNLosAngeles.com has more.

Both players become free agents and are eligible to sign with any team after the World Series ends, and with the Dodgers at any time. In fact, each has past experience of returning to the Dodgers as a free agent: Blake three years ago, Garland last year.

We’ve gotten mixed signals on Blake, from possible retirement to a potential willingness to come back as a reserve to the Dodgers on a cheaper contract. However, I’d be surprised if the Dodgers bid very enthusiastically on either Blake or Garland, both of whom spent much of 2011 injured, unless their salary quotes came way, way down.

Some might consider this the top story: The Dodgers also removed Eugenio Velez from their 40-man roster by outrighting him to Albuquerque. That takes him out of the team’s 2012 plans, but it doesn’t mean we won’t see him at Camelback Ranch for Spring Training next year.

* * *

Federal bankruptcy judge Kevin Gross has appointed a mediator to try to bridge the chasm between the Dodgers and Major League Baseball out of court. Good luck on that one.
Suspended list star Ronald Belisario is looking to rebuild his career, even if it’s not with the Dodgers or even in the U.S., according to this story on the Bravos de Margarita website (Google translation here) passed along by Roberto Baly of Vin Scully Is My Homeboy.
Baly also has links to radio interviews with Vin Scully, Tommy Lasorda, Ned Colletti and Charley Steiner.

‘Moneyball’: The Yankee version

Via Big League Stew comes this “Moneyball” parody from Jest.com.

“What is happening in New York? Spending all that money is miraculously working out for them!”

Remembering 2011: Eugenio Velez

On October 3, 2011

Lenny Ignelzi/APEugenio Velez

The setup: A .264 hitter with a .701 OPS in his first three seasons with San Francisco, Velez had fallen to .164 and .555 in 2010. He was actually batting .412 after going 3 for 5 against the Dodgers on April 17 last year, but finished his major-league action with a little-noticed hitless streak of nine at-bats. Signed to a minor-league contract by the Dodgers in December, Velez settled in nicely with Albuquerque, posting a .339 batting average and .371 on-base percentage with the Isotopes in 55 games. To emphasize that last point, Velez had 74 hits in Albuquerque before he was called up by the Dodgers in July and, if you look at the Isotopes’ batting average leaders, is No. 1 among those who played in at least 10 games, above such players as Trent Oeltjen, Dee Gordon, Tim Federowicz, Ivan De Jesus Jr., A.J. Ellis, Justin Sellers, Jay Gibbons, Trayvon Robinson, Russ Mitchell and Jerry Sands.

The closeup: Um, well, Velez did not hit .339 with the Dodgers. Or .239, or .139, or .039, or .0039. Though he was twice walked and once hit by a pitch, he failed to get a hit in 37 at-bats, establishing records for a non-pitcher for most hitless at-bats in a single season as well as longest hitless streak period: 46. Since a third-inning single on April 20, 2010, Velez is an unbelievable 1 for his last 66 in the majors: an .015 average. And if not for extra innings on May 18, 2010, Velez would be riding a hitless streak of 66 at-bats. There were also few instances of Velez just missing a hit in 2011. According to Baseball-Reference.com, he struck out 11 times (including all three at-bats of his seventh and final start of the year) and made 18 infield outs, in comparison to eight outs recorded by outfielders. He was credited with two line-drive outs in the majors this year.

Coming attractions: When he reached 46 consecutive hitless at-bats, Velez broke a record jointly held by two others who spent time with this franchise, Bill Bergen and Craig Counsell. Bergen was 31 when his streak ended in 1909; he collected 70 more hits over the final two seasons of his career. Counsell was 2 1/2 weeks shy of his 41st birthday when his streak ended in August, and he actually finished the season in an 11-for-40 hot streak (.275). So it’s not as if Velez, 29, should never get a hit again. However, Velez does have a burden borne by neither of his predecessors: He has to carry his hitless streak into his offseason job hunt. No one’s going to hand him a major-league job that offers him an early opportunity to exorcise this particular ghost. Velez will be playing in some organization next year, but he’s going to have to work his way up from the minors, and then figure out how to hit it where they ain’t. Expect him to drive in a go-ahead run with a double down the line against the Dodgers sometime before the decade is over.

Dodgers move to AM 570

On October 3, 2011

In Awards

The Dodgers made official today their move from KABC 790 AM to KLAC 570 AM, beginning next season.

The new three-year deal puts Vin Scully and the Dodgers on an all-sports station for the first time in years. The deal calls for all regular season games plus “at least seven Spring Training games.”

DodgerTalk will air for at least one hour after every game, with an hourlong exhibition season program airing at 7 p.m. from the start of Spring Training until Opening Day. There was no immediate word whether Josh Suchon and Joe Block would be part of the transition, although I have trouble believing anyone doesn’t want them included.

In other news and notes:

ESPNLosAngeles.com and Tony Jackson have offered a poll where you can decide which Dodgers you would keep and which you would “trash.” I always find these kinds of questions hard to answer when you don’t know what the cost would be in many cases — I wouldn’t trash Jamey Carroll, but I wouldn’t go crazy trying to keep him either — but my biggest question is how Matt Kemp would have fared in such a poll a year ago.
The fan vote for the Hank Aaron Awards for the best hitters in the National and American Leagues has begun. We can finally settle the question of who is more deserving: Matt Kemp or Cameron Maybin.
The Dodgers have asked federal bankruptcy judge Kevin Gross to reconsider the exclusion of evidence on how Major League Baseball has dealt with other teams. Wrote Craig Calcaterra of Hardball Talk: “Motions for reconsideration just never, ever work. They’re the litigation equivalent of my son saying “but DAAAAAD!”
Milwaukee Brewers owner Mark Attanasio (who lives in Los Angeles) has been named to the LACMA Board of Trustees, where he will share metaphorical office space with Jamie McCourt.
Most everything you wanted to know about 2011 ejections but you were afraid to inquire about can be found in this post at the Platoon Advantage.
Japanese free agent Tsuyoshi Wada gets a closer examination from analyst Chad Moriyama, whose guard is up and optimism down about the Japanese lefty.
Jay Gibbons, who finished the season with Albuquerque, has filed for free agency, according to MLB Trade Rumors.
Update: Eric Stephen of True Blue L.A. breaks down the contract status of everyone on the Dodger 40-man roster.

Remembering 2011: John Ely

On October 3, 2011

Kelvin Kuo/US PresswireJohn Ely

The setup: Last year’s rookie darling, at least before his pinpoint control abandoned him midway through the 2010 season, Ely was believed to hold enough usefulness that, amid a seeming lack of alternatives, he figured to be the first minor-league pitcher the Dodgers would turn to in 2011 if anything happened to Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda, Ted Lilly or Jon Garland.

The closeup: As soon as April 10, the ninth game of the season, the Dodgers did turn to Ely, because Garland hadn’t yet recovered from his Spring Training oblique injury. And Ely was one strike away from a quality start, having allowed two runs in 5 2/3 innings, when he then walked San Diego’s Ryan Ludwick and then gave up a home run to Nick Hundley. If the Dodgers were going to be forgiving, an uneven performance at Albuquerque (5.99 ERA) changed their minds: Despite Garland soon being lost for the season, Ely made no more starts for Los Angeles in 2011, passed over in favor of Rubby De La Rosa, Nathan Eovaldi and Dana Eveland. In fact, Ely made only four other appearances in the majors this year. One of them was June 5, when he had a chance for a four-inning save before faltering in the ninth. The other three came after rosters expanded in September, when Ely pitched four innings of shutout ball, lowering his season ERA to 4.26 with 13 strikeouts against 12 hits and an uncharacteristic seven walks in 12 2/3 innings.

Coming attractions: Ely wouldn’t seem to figure in the Dodgers’ plans for 2012, especially with a new wave of homegrown minor-leaguers making the grade. Pitching in Albuquerque certainly seems to have done him few favors. On the other hand, he’s still only 25, and if not the Dodgers, some team might see if he can rediscover the confidence control that made him such a hit in 2010. In the same fashion that Eveland got another shot this year, perhaps Ely can too.

Remembering 2011: Justin Sellers

On October 2, 2011

Kirby Lee/US PresswireJustin Sellers

The setup: With the Dodgers, his third organization as a minor-leaguer, Sellers began working his way onto the radar in 2010, when the shortstop hit 14 home runs in 288 at-bats with Albuquerque. He performed similarly in 2011, knocking 14 homers in 270 at-bats for the Isotopes while increasing his on-base percentage to .400. When Rafael Furcal’s replacement, 23-year-old homegrown prospect Dee Gordon, went on the disabled list on August 11, the 25-year-old Sellers got the proverbial break he was looking for.

The closeup: Sellers made an impression quickly, not just with his everywhere-you-look tattoos but with a home run in his third major-league game, after which he gave a memorable postgame TV interview while holding his 2-year-old daughter in his arms. During Gordon’s three-week absence, Sellers started 16 games at shortstop with a .714 OPS, while looking reliable and occasionally acrobatic in the field. Rather quickly, support began to build for the idea that Sellers could become the Dodgers’ starting second baseman next to Gordon in 2012, or at least a replacement for utility infielder extraordinaire Jamey Carroll.

Unlike several other Dodger rookies, however, Sellers suffered through a miserable September. He went 9 for 60 with a .227 on-base percentage and a .217 slugging percentage, and needed to go 2 for 4 in the season finale just to reach those heights. He finished 2011 with a .283 on-base percentage and .301 slugging percentage in 139 plate appearances.

Coming attractions: The Dodger infield is in flux, with Gordon arguably the only current member of the 40-man roster assured of a starting job. Casey Blake is likely gone, no one’s quite sure of what will happen with James Loney, and Don Mattingly has indicated that even Juan Uribe needs to prove himself. Carroll and Aaron Miles are free agents, but even if both returned, a bench role could be Sellers’ market. But thanks to his final-month performance, he would appear to be more of a fallback option than one at the forefront, and certainly an unlikely choice to be a starter Opening Day.

So, when exactly were the Dodgers out of contention?

On October 1, 2011

In Awards

On August 24, St. Louis was 10 1/2 games behind Atlanta in the National League wild card race. Though everyone might have thought the Cardinals were out of playoff contention, it turns out they were anything but. Today, they will play the Phillies in the National League Division Series.

As a result, by the definition of “valuable” that exists in the minds of some (as opposed to the one that actually exists in the Baseball Writers Association of America voting guidelines), everyone on the Cardinals is eligible for the NL Most Valuable Player Award.

What does this have to do with the Dodgers?

On August 24, Los Angeles was 10 1/2 games behind Arizona in the NL West race. Same date, same deficit.

(Yes, the Cardinals were closer to Milwaukee in the NL Central race, but that’s not the race they won.)

If you argue that the Dodgers were never in contention this summer, then you have to argue that the Cardinals were never in contention. Which is obviously not true.

National League standings after August 24
1t) .719 23-9 Arizona
1t) .719 23-9 St. Louis
3) .688 22-10 Los Angeles
4) .600 18-12 Milwaukee
…
13t) .355 11-20 Atlanta

The Dodgers certainly played as if they were in contention. They played hard and they played well. The difference between the Dodgers and St. Louis has nothing to do with the Dodgers. The Braves collapsed, and the Diamondbacks didn’t.

I realize the 2011 MVP ballots have already been cast, so this is moot as far as this year goes, but it should be remembered for future votes. The comeback of the Cardinals in the NL (along with Tampa Bay in the AL) points out yet another flaw in the misbegotten argument that Matt Kemp should be effectively ineligible for the MVP award because the Dodgers didn’t contend.

You certainly can’t argue that the games through August 24 didn’t matter for the Dodgers, and given how incredible the other comebacks were, I’m not sure how you can argue that any game for the Dodgers before they were eliminated September 17 didn’t matter to them.

With the season on the line, from August 22 through September 10, the Dodgers went 15-3 – yet they lost 1 1/2 games in the standings. Is it really fair to punish Kemp, who had a typical .971 OPS during that stretch, for his team not making the playoffs?

As smart as they think they are, sportswriters (and fans) don’t get to decide when the games no longer matter. The players do.

Update: Mike Petriello of Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness has more on the subject.

Bankruptcy judge accelerates timetable on Dodgers

On September 30, 2011

In Ownership

If you’re too scared or jaded to get excited for a quick resolution to the Dodger ownership kerfuffle, much less a quick and happy one, I can definitely relate.

But for those holding out hope, there was good news today …

A Delaware judge presiding over the Los Angeles Dodgers bankruptcy issued an order Friday scheduling a hearing that could determine the fate of the team and said he expects baseball Commissioner Bud Selig and Dodgers owner Frank McCourt to testify under oath.

In a sharply worded order in response to dueling motions by the league and the team, Judge Kevin Gross said he was setting aside four days for an evidentiary hearing, starting Oct. 31, so that he can decide critical issues “based upon facts rather than the harsh allegations and innuendo of antagonists.”

Gross said he must decide whether the Dodgers’ plan to auction off television rights to future games as the way out of bankruptcy is in the team’s best interest, or whether Major League Baseball can dictate what the Dodgers can and cannot do.

“There is no middle ground for decision,” he wrote.

In scheduling the hearing, the judge said he would hear requests for limited depositions at a previously scheduled Oct. 12 hearing, but that he would not hear arguments on the competing motions that day. …

Gross said an early resolution of issues in the bankruptcy case will allow the team to use the offseason to prepare for the 2012 baseball schedule.

“In addition, the court’s direction for the prompt hearing will enable the court to maintain control over parties whose animus towards one another could result in unnecessary, spiraling and excessive litigiousness which would become increasingly challenging to disentangle,” he wrote. …

That was the quick part. Here’s the happy, for those on the side against Frank McCourt:

… Attorneys for the Dodgers, claiming the team has been treated unfairly, have sought to gain information from the league about its dealings with other clubs.

But in his scheduling order, Gross said he will limit discovery in the case to the league’s relationship with the Dodgers.

“The court will not turn the debtors’ ills and whether the commissioner is treating debtors and Mr. McCourt unreasonably and vindictively into a sideshow of all of MLB,” the judge wrote.

Bill Shaikin of the Times has more perspective, acknowledging the blows to McCourt’s agenda but also noting (via Thomas Salerno, lead attorney for the Phoenix Coyotes during their bankruptcy) how McCourt might overcome them:

… According to Salerno, Gross’ order refocuses the case on McCourt’s essential reason for taking the Dodgers into bankruptcy — to get the television contract that Selig would not approve. Such a contract has been opposed by MLB, Fox Sports and Jamie McCourt — Frank McCourt’s ex-wife, who claims half-ownership of the Dodgers.

Salerno said Frank McCourt and his attorneys could try to introduce evidence about other teams in two ways: one, with cross-examination of Selig; two, with an expert witness who could discuss publicly available information — for example, a sports business analyst who could discuss the Marlins’ leaked financial documents.

In a court filing Friday, the Dodgers listed their “bankruptcy-related expenses” for the first three months of the case at $5.7 million.

* * *

Today, 22-year-old Matt Moore threw seven shutout innings in his postseason debut for Tampa Bay and achieved a Game Score of 77. He became the 11th-youngest pitcher with a postseason Game Score of at least 75. Fernando Valenzuela has the top two spots on that list, according to Baseball-Reference.com.
Former Dodger Derek Lowe, who is owed $15 million by the Braves for 2012, is not expected to have a spot in the team’s rotation, according to David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (via MLB Trade Rumors).
The deadline to tender a contract offer to arbitration-eligible players (such as James Loney) is December 12.
Best wishes to Geoff Young, who is retiring one of the original baseball blogs, Ducksnorts, after 14 years.

Dodgers hire new contracts and arbitration expert