Good comments in Tuesday’s thread taking the pulse of your feelings toward the Dodgers this year. Even if you don’t normally venture into the comments, I recommend you make an exception for these.
Some early pregame tidbits for the final day of Spring Training.
- Jill Painter of the Daily News has a feature on lefthanded pitcher Scott Rice, whose dream of a major-league debut has been delayed once again.
- Sam Miller of Baseball Prospectus puts the dilution of baseball’s traditional Opening Day in perspective.
- Friend of Dodger Thoughts Neal Pollack has a new book, Jewball. Here’s the description:
1937. The gears of world war have begun to grind, but Inky Lautman, star point guard for the South Philadelphia Hebrew Association, America’s greatest basketball team, is dealing with his own problems.
His coach has unwittingly incurred a massive gambling debt to the Bund, a group of American Nazis. His main basketball rival is self-righteously leading public protests against homegrown American fascism. And his girlfriend wants him to join a Jewish student organization that’s all talk and no action. It’s more than Inky can deliver. He just wants to play ball and occasionally beat people up for money.
When the Bund comes calling for what it’s owed, Inky has to make a stand for his ragtag bunch of teammates and the coach that got them into this mess. With the Bund closing in, Inky’s game isn’t just basketball anymore. It becomes a battle that pits Jewish pride against Nazi fascism.
The tides of history are flowing against a guy like Inky. Can he make his free throws and still make it through the season alive? Get ready. This…is Jewball.
Dodger fans, by and large, spent 2011 in the kind of pre-apocalyptic nightmare depicted in the fine 2011 film Take Shelter, starring Michael Shannon.
The deepest, darkest hours of the McCourt ownership bled into the Bryan Stow tragedy. The Dodgers’ shaky start bled into nearly their worst first-half performance ever in Los Angeles. The sky over Chavez Ravine ripped apart.
Fans ran and hid, dragging in-game attendance and team goodwill down to its lowest level in decades.
And then the Dodgers ended up playing .600 ball over the final two months of the season.
It’s a new April. The McCourt fog is mostly clearing. But the team’s near-term future on the field is mixed, the stadium security and renovation issues awaiting further action, and there are even lingering questions about whether the new ownership will be good for the franchise.
Last season was painful in so many ways. Has that better prepared you to handle any challenges during the 2012 season? Will you be happier this year, even if the Dodgers lose more games than last year, if the team’s problems are confined to what’s happening on the field? As you emerge from your storm shelter, what color is your sky?
An episode of NPR’s Car Talk never fails to bring smiles to my face, not because I have any interest in or understanding of cars, but because the hosts (“Click and Clack, the Tappet Brothers”) are just so much fun. The first time I ever listened to it was the hot August 1993 morning I drove away from Washington D.C. for good to move back to Los Angeles, in a sad state of mind over the girl I was leaving behind. Those guys were just the right medicine for the road.
Anyway, each week they have a puzzler for listeners to solve, and just in time for Opening Day, they have a baseball-themed riddle. I imagine you baseball experts out there can figure out the answer.
The big news of the day for Dodger fans involves two non-Dodgers, Matt Cain and Joey Votto, who each signed contract extensions that remove them as acquisition targets for Los Angeles. Bob Nightengale of USA Today has details.
On the bright side, at least the Dodgers locked up Matt Kemp for what might be a relative bargain compared to the 28-year-old Votto’s 10-year, $225 million deal. More money to invest in the farm system!
- Magic Johnson will be a guest on Tavis Smiley’s PBS talk show tonight. In Los Angeles, that’s scheduled for 11:30 p.m. on KOCE 50.
- Dee Gordon is the subject of a lengthy profile by Jon Heyman at CBSSports.com.
- Jim Gullo’s new book “Trading Manny: How a Father & Son Learned to Love Baseball Again,” reviewed by Tom Hoffarth of the Daily News, looks like a potentially interesting read in addressing how a father and son try to defuse the effect of baseball’s substance-abuse saga.
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Chad Billingsley gave up a single to the first batter he faced today, Arizona infielder Ryan Roberts. It came on a 1-2 pitch. You never want to see that happen, though it’s easily forgiven if it comes on your pitch. Billingsley, instead, left a fastball over the plate and chest-high. Roberts grounded it to the left of shortstop Dee Gordon into center field. With a little luck, Roberts would have hit it a few feet over, into Gordon’s range. But there was as much luck for Billingsley as there was execution.
“Normally,” said Dodger commentator Rick Monday, “in your last outing in Arizona for Spring Training, you would say, ‘Well, it’s just a final tuneup.’ I really believe that for Chad Billingsley, this is more than just a final tuneup, because he has not been fine-tuned so far. And since this is his last outing, I think it’s imperative to get some batters behind in the count, as he had right here the leadoff hitter Roberts, (and) finish them off.”
“Imperative” would be an exaggeration – nothing’s imperative until at least the regular season starts. But shy of that, Monday’s overall point wasn’t lost. You want to see it done right.
Billingsley did do some things right – after walking Justin Upton with one out, he struck out Jason Kubel to start an inning-ending double play that found Aaron Hill (who had hit into a 9-6 bloop forceout) caught stealing by A.J. Ellis. Billingsley then struck out his first batter of inning two, Chris Young. But mostly, it was a rough outing – insufficiently sharp. The 27-year-old righty gave up four runs and six hits on 70 pitches in three innings, including two arguably wind-aided home runs to left field. He finished his 2012 exhibition season with a 5.91 ERA.
Monday was fairly relentless in his criticism of Billingsley throughout the three innings, and again, I was of two minds. The critique seemed a bit over the top for a practice game, even with the regular season coming later this week. At the same time, unless Billingsley was deliberately trying to hide his good stuff from his division, it was a hard outing to watch, both from individual and team standpoints.
I’m still wondering if the poor performance by Billingsley in the second half of 2011, following a solid first two months, was injury-related. I might never get the answer. But one scenario that certainly is possible is that Billingsley’s 2012 effectively becomes a repeat of Jonathan Broxton’s 2011. Problems from the second half of the previous season are never really solved, and the ensuing campaign becomes a lost one.
Without minimizing what this might mean for Billingsley’s career, it points to the cliff’s edge the Dodgers will be driving along in 2012. They’re counting on improvement from players like Billingsley, Andre Ethier (having the best kind of Spring Training) and James Loney. If those players instead take additional steps back, you’re basically left with asking the farm system (Nathan Eovaldi, Jerry Sands, etc.) to come to the rescue. They might succeed, just as Javy Guerra did for Broxton in 2011, but it’s a risky business.
That Clayton Kershaw had an uneven performance 24 hours before Billingsley, allowing three runs on six hits and a walk in 3 2/3 innings, offers a half-empty, half-full counterpoint. From Tony Jackson of ESPNLosAngeles.com:
… Kershaw said he was missing his spots and that his slider, which he had struggled with in his previous start six days earlier, still wasn’t quite right. But when asked if the slider was a concern now that the regular season is upon him, Kershaw said it isn’t.
“It can’t be,” he said. “April 5 is coming up pretty fast. You have to be ready to go.”
Dodgers pitching coach Rick Honeycutt says he continues to see good sliders from Kershaw intermittently, but that the inconsistency could be the result of Kershaw trying to force the pitch, especially in light desert air where breaking balls tend not to break as much and where simply getting a proper grip on the ball can be tough.
“But he isn’t going to make that excuse, and I’m not going to make it for him,” Honeycutt said. “As long as he is healthy, that is the main thing. [The slider] isn’t something I’m worried about. He is going to continue to work on it until he feels comfortable with it.” …
Whatever the results of March 2012, hoping that Matt Kemp, Kershaw, Billingsley, Ethier and Loney perform to their previous peaks isn’t exactly the longshot of picking a MegaMillions jackpot. It could happen, and if it does, I wouldn’t call it a fluke – just good timing. That, plus new ownership itching to make a first impression, plus my perhaps irrational belief that Gordon is going to excite all expectations (“I’m a Deeliever,” I’ve started singing to myself), plus an awareness that other teams in the NL aren’t blessed with unlimited good fortune, is why I enter this season with the hope that the Dodgers can win at least 90 games and a spot in postseason roulette.
But the lack of Plan Bs makes the Dodgers’ 2012 season a perilous one, with 90 losses anything but a remote possibility. If Billingsley struggles, if Ted Lilly can’t stay healthy, if Juan Uribe is toast, if Kemp and Kershaw take perfectly reasonable steps back from their insane greatness of last year, and so on into the night, the Dodgers quickly run out of escape routes.
At the end, it all comes back to the beginning. You’re on the mound. You have a 1-2 count on the batter. You have talent, experience and an edge.
Can you make your pitch?
Can your defense save you when you don’t?
Can your offense save you when your defense doesn’t?
Can your management save you when your offense and defense can’t?
Ted Lilly will start the season on the disabled list thanks to a stiff neck, while Chris Capuano will start the Dodgers’ third and seventh games of 2012. J.P. Hoornstra of the Daily News, Tony Jackson of ESPNLosAngeles.com and Eric Stephen of True Blue L.A. have details.
Lilly might make his first start as soon as the Dodgers’ ninth game, April 14. Needing only four starters in their first week, Los Angeles will carry an extra reliever, possibly Josh Lindblom.
Meanwhile, Ramon Troncoso cleared waivers and is headed to Triple-A Albuquerque, reports Ken Gurnick of MLB.com.
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In their 9-4 split-squad loss to the Brewers, Capuano struck out seven in six innings while allowing one run on three baserunners. But Jared Wright allowed three unearned runs in the eighth and Todd Coffey four unearned runs in the ninth.
Andre Ethier continued his insane spring, doubling and homering for four RBI and raising his OPS to 1.373. Mike Petriello of Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness has a piece at Fangraphs today in which he explains why he expects Ethier to go on to have a great regular season.
Dylan Hernandez of the Times adds that contract extension talks for Ethier could take place during the season.
There were brushback pitches in today’s game; Jackson gives you the breakdown.
In their other split-squad game, the Dodgers beat the Cubs, 6-3. Dee Gordon tripled in two runs, while Luis Cruz had a pair of hits and RBI.
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Jamie Moyer will start 2012 in the Colorado Rockies rotation. Rob Neyer comments at Baseball Nation:
So this is really going to happen. Barring a terribly disappointing injury in the next few days, Jamie Moyer will soon become the second-oldest man to start a game in Major League Baseball’s long history, and the oldest to start more than once.
In 1965, Satchel Paige started one game for the Kansas City Athletics. He was 58 years old, and pitched three scoreless innings against the Boston Red Sox. But that was obviously a stunt; it was Paige’s first appearance in the majors since 1953, and would be his last.
Aside from Paige, the oldest major-league starter was Phil Niekro, 48 when he made 26 starts in 1987.
Satchel Paige was a performer; Phil Niekro was a knuckleballer. Meanwhile, Jamie Moyer is just another (relatively) conventional pitcher, except that he’s 49 years old and has officially earned a spot in the Colorado Rockies‘ pitching rotation. …
Fun as that is, I continue to be amazed by projections that find the Rockies will be dramatically better than the Dodgers in 2012.
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- San Francisco placed two starting pitchers on the disabled list today, Ryan Vogelsong and Eric Surkamp, according to The Associated Press.
- Bill Bene, the Dodgers’ No. 1 draft pick the year that Clayton Kershaw was born and the team won its last World Series, “agreed to plead guilty on federal charges he operated a counterfeit karaoke business and didn’t pay taxes on sales,” according to Lindsay William-Ross of LAist.
- Sam Miller has not one, but two good pieces at Baseball Prospectus today. Check ‘em out.
- Bill Veeck: Baseball’s Greatest Maverick gets a nice review from Mike Downey in the Times, as Alex Belth of Bronx Banter notes.
- Allow me to recommend the second-season soundtrack of Treme as a great listen.
- If your favorite Dodgers were Burt Hooton, Eric Karros, Eric Gagne, Duke Snider and Tommy Lasorda – and you really liked Karros – you might be able to buy into the team now.
Underneath this clip of the Roadrunner from earlier this week is some news from Dodger beat writers Ken Gurnick of MLB.com, Dylan Hernandez of the Times, J.P. Hoornstra of the Daily News, Tony Jackson of ESPNLosAngeles.com and Eric Stephen of True Blue L.A.
- A decision on whether Ted Lilly will go on the disabled list is expected Friday.
- Josh Bard and Cory Sullivan were released from their contracts.
- Josh Fields is close to making the Opening Day roster.
- Matt Kemp is striking out a lot this spring and hitting a ton when he isn’t.
- Aaron Harang is ready to go, throwing 104 pitches today in the Dodgers’ 3-1 loss.
- Walter Hamilton and E. Scott Reckard of the Times profile new Dodger owner Mark Walter.
- Vin Scully and Magic Johnson chatted Wednesday, writes Steve Dilbeck of Dodgers Now.
- Juan Pierre has made the Phillies and will earn $800,000 this year, writes Craig Calcaterra of Hardball Talk.
We had the O’Malley ownership. We had the Fox ownership. We had the McCourt ownership.
What do we have now? The Magic ownership? The Guggenheim gang? Those crazy guys with money to burn?
Who owns the Dodgers?
My longtime friend, former Stanford Daily colleague and all-around smarter-than-your-average bear Mark Rogowsky has analyzed the Dodger sale and comes to the conclusion that the finances more than hold up. It’s lengthy but definitely worth your time. Read it here.
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- Bill Shaikin of the Times was interviewed by PBS News Hour about the Dodger sale. Roberto Baly of Vin Scully Is My Homeboy passes along the video.
- Frank McCourt’s farewell e-mail to Dodger employees was posted by Ken Gurnick of Dodgers.com.
- Grant Brisbee of McCovey Chronicles offers a San Francisco perspective on the Dodger sale.
- Featuring a big giant graphic, Beyond the Box Score looks at the Dodgers’ roster commitments between now and 2017.
- Third-generation major-leaguer Jerry Hairston Jr. talked to J.P Hoornstra of the Daily News about the connection between Jackie Robinson and Magic Johnson.
- The Dodgers released minor-leaguer Jared Lansford, son of Carney Lansford, according to Matt Eddy of Baseball America, after barely a month in the organization.
- At age 28, Chin-Lung Hu failed his physical with the Phillies, according to Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer.
- The New York Times gives the background on its 1966 story that inspired the opening scene of the season premiere of Mad Men.
Eight years ago, I placed myself firmly among a small group of skeptics concerned about the qualifications of Frank and Jamie McCourt to be owners of the Dodgers, and never left.
This week, despite the presence of a greater number of skeptics worried about whether the $2.15 billion outlay by the Dodgers’ new ownership group is sign of trouble, I find myself aligned with the optimists. Tonight, I wondered why this was.
- It’s not because I’m a contrarian. For one thing, there are probably still more optimists than pessimists out there right now.
- It’s not because of the greatness of Magic Johnson. I love Magic, but I know his role is too small to make all the difference. I also remember Magic’s coaching days with the Lakers and, yes, The Magic Hour. In fact, what pessimism I have comes in part from my recognition of his limitations – if anything, I’m not quite enjoying Magic’s ascension to the Dodger royal family as unabashedly as I’d like.
- It’s not because I’m happy that McCourt still has a shelf in the Dodger pantry.
- It’s not because I can’t see the possibility that the new owners went a little crazy and got a little fuzzy with their math, to an extent that even the TV rights windfall can’t save them.
- It’s not because I’m not wondering whether a majority owner based in Chicago with no real connection to Los Angeles or the Dodgers truly has the franchise’s best interests at heart, regardless of what his minority partners desire.
- It’s not, in short, that I don’t think the new owners have the same fallibility as so many other owners throughout the world of sports.
Those factors, and maybe a few others I can name, have bridled my enthusiasm for the new owners – but haven’t reversed it. Because …
- OK, Magic. Magic. I’m really of two minds with him. I know his influence is small, but I know his determination is huge. It’s hard for that not to affect me. I’ve got Magic on my team.
- McCourt reportedly does not have a controlling interest in any Dodger operations, on or off the field. This is the third-best-case scenario out of at least seven involving McCourt that I have in my head, including one where he rides a missile from space toward Dodger Stadium while waving a cowboy hat and yee-hawing at the top of his lungs.
- The money. The McCourts should have had The Borrowers be the title of their memoirs – until other titles came to mind. Despite the stratospheric purchase price this time around for the new guys, the new guys are without a doubt better equipped financially to face the challenges of ownership. And the TV money coming in is still astronomical, in ways I think most people still don’t grasp.
- The McCourts came in with no understanding of the Dodger community or the sports world. I’m not sure they came in with any understanding of human relations, to be honest. I believe Johnson, Stan Kasten and Peter Guber have it. They might not always do what we want, but the odds are much better.
- The pessimists are saying that the new owners can’t make this work. With all the potential on the table, including the possibility that the Dodger debt was wiped out by money down, I can’t go that far.
And, admittedly, there’s one other thing. Maybe I’m tired of all the negativity. I’ve been locked into pessimism about Dodger ownership for so long now, maybe I’m just ready for that lifeboat. If these new owners were another set of McCourts, I think I’d still be able to recognize it, but I am liking giving the benefit of the doubt.
So it’s possible I’m committing the same sin of naivete that others were guilty of eight years ago. But I just feel I’ve got enough reason to feel light.
Anyway, it doesn’t matter what I feel now, or what any of us feel now. It just doesn’t matter. The future will tell us all we need to know.
Bill Shaikin of the Times corraborates a Wall Street Journal report by Matthew Futterman. that the new Dodger ownership is paying all cash for the Dodgers, wiping out the team’s debt without using the TV money. Skeptics remain, however.
“The bid was described as a ’100% cash offer,’” Futterman wrote. “Mr. Walter is making a significant personal contribution to the purchase price, with Guggenheim Partners, of which he is chief executive, playing a substantial role in financial contribution.”
… the deal is all cash and no financing, so it wouldn’t add to the Dodgers’ already significant debt load. The purchase price for the team itself is $2 billion — roughly $1.6 billion in cash and $400 million in debt assumption. An additional $150 million is for a joint venture between the Johnson group and outgoing owner Frank McCourt to control the parking lots surrounding the stadium.
Under terms of the deal, no development would take place on the lots unless the Johnson group and McCourt agree. The deal also ensures that McCourt can retain partial ownership of the lots and share in any future development revenue.
The money fans pay to park at Dodgers games goes to the new ownership group. …
Whether there are some games being played to facilitate this all-cash payment, I don’t know. Andrew Zimbalist is among the economists who are aghast at the sale price, according to this Arash Markazi piece at ESPNLosAngeles.com. Despite reports otherwise, they seem to believe that the Dodgers’ future TV money is being used to fund the deal.
The importance relates to what’s left over to invest in the team after the sale is done. Chad Moriyama reminds us that if the Guggenheim group has the cash to fund the Dodger purchase, we shouldn’t worry if they overpaid. Everything centers on that “if.”
At this point, I’m not sure any pundit really knows. And with this much money at play, I’m also not sure the Dodger operating budget — small by comparison — depends on how much cash was paid up front. Let’s put it this way: The Dodgers are certainly less likely to reject a star player than they were before Tuesday, let alone let someone like Hiroki Kuroda walk away for a million or so. I’m still much more worried about which star players the new management thinks are worthwhile to begin with.
- Bill Plaschke of the Times has a news interview with Johnson, Kasten and Walter. It’s worth the click. ESPNLosAngeles.com and Ken Gurnick of MLB.com had similar conversations.
- Matt Kemp and Dee Gordon think they could beat Magic Johnson in one-on-one basketball today, according to Dylan Hernandez of the Times. I’m not so sure … and Tony Gwynn Jr. agrees with me.
- Former Dodger owner Peter O’Malley told Shaikin that he believes in Johnson and Kasten.
- Joe Flint of the Times says that your cable TV bill (if you have one) will help fund the Dodgers’ acquisition.
- Ross Newhan wonders if the sale of the team was destined for Magic all along.
- Phil Gurnee writes at True Blue L.A. about how amazing it is for us Dodger fans who grew up adoring Johnson to see him in this position.
- Mike Petriello of Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness shares his thoughts.
- J.P. Breen of Fangraphs looks at possible future free-agent targets for the Dodgers.
- If you want to go back and read my Variety story on Johnson’s plans to launch family-friendly cable channel Aspire, here it is.
- Let’s hear it for 44-year-olds! Omar Vizquel will be on the Opening Day roster of the Blue Jays, according to The Associated Press.
- The turnover of former Dodgers continues, with Chin-Lung Hu and Joe Thurston headed to the Phillies, as noted by MLB Trade Rumors.
- Katie Sharp of ESPN.com examines whether Chad Billingsley’s problems last year related to his slider.
- Oh yeah – the Dodgers played today.
Peter Guber, partnered with Magic Johnson, Stan Kasten, Bobby Patton, Todd Boehly and Guggenheim Partners in the new Dodger ownership group, was a keynote speaker at Variety’s Sports Entertainment Summit in July. A longtime Hollywood executive and producer, Guber is also a minority owner of the Golden State Warriors, and he and Johnson are co-owners of the Dayton Single-A minor-league team.
Here’s a link to the 43-minute conversation Guber had at the Summit with my colleague, Stuart Levine, talking about all aspects of entertainment and sports, including ownership.
In addition, I’ve posted a new story at Variety about how the Dodger sale illustrates the immense faith in the dollar value of the Dodger local cable rights.