May 2015 – Page 2 – Dodger Thoughts

Tim Wallach, who knows a thing or five (1984, 1985, 1987, 1989, 1990) about All-Star selections, and Joc Pederson celebrate Adrian Gonzalez’s 1000th RBI on Tuesday.

By Jon Weisman

First baseman Adrian Gonzalez is the only member of the National League West-leading Dodgers (and NL’s No. 1 offense) in first place at his position in the initial release of NL All-Star voting numbers.

Gonzalez has nearly twice as many votes as second-palce Anthony Rizzo of the Cubs, but otherwise, the Dodgers need help — especially Joc Pederson, who (as you’ll see detailed later in this post) ranks No. 1 among NL center fielders in Wins Above Replacement.

It’s worth noting that Gonzalez was the NL leader among first basemen at this stage last year, only to eventually lose out to Paul Goldschmidt of Arizona.

Fan voting continues through July 2. You can read more about the selection process here. Click the image below to enlarge the current results.

For some perspective, here’s where the top Dodger All-Star candidates rank in WAR, according to Fangraphs.

Gonzalez is first among first basemen, a hair ahead of Goldschmidt and Rizzo. Tuesday’s home run was only Gonzalez’s second of May, but he still has a .411 on-base percentage and .481 slugging percentage this month. Gonzalez has been in four All-Star Games, but none since joining the Dodgers in 2012.
Dodger rookie Pederson leads NL center fielders in WAR, not insignificantly: 0.3 ahead of No. 2 A.J. Pollock and 0.7 (50 percent higher) above No. 3 Dexter Fowler. And that’s with Pederson losing a bit of value because of his sub-par baserunning so far this year. Thanks in part to Andrew McCutchen’s slow start, no one is even close to Pederson offensively in center.
Overall NL voting leader Bryce Harper and Giancarlo Stanton dominate the national headlines and rightly so, but right behind Stanton in right field WAR is Andre Ethier, whose wRC+ is actually better than Stanton’s. An NL Comeback Player of the Year candidate, Ethier (like Gonzalez) last reached an All-Star Game in 2011, but given that he is fifth among all outfielders in WAR, his chance to make the game as a reserve is fairly strong.

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For the record, Yasiel Puig (50 plate appearances) is 16th in WAR in right field, and 13th on the current outfield ballot.
Yasmani Grandal is fourth in WAR at catcher, behind Buster Posey, Derek Norris and Miguel Montero. Currently on the seven-day concussion disabled list, Grandal has the fewest game and plate appearances (tied with Brayan Pena) of anyone in the top 10. On the offensive side, Grandal ranks second.
Also sitting in the No. 4 spot is Howie Kendrick at second base, behind 2015 ballot leader Dee Gordon, Kolten Wong and Joe Panik. Of note: When Kendrick went 0 for 8 May 22-23 against San Diego, that was the first time all season he hadn’t reached base in consecutive games. Kendrick’s only All-Star appearance came the same year as the most recent one for Ethier and Gonzalez, in 2011.

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Justin Turner and Alex Guerrero aren’t on the All-Star ballot, but they sit in fourth and seventh positions at third base. Neither has 100 plate appearances yet this season (Turner is at 99), and Guerrero has actually only played nine games at the hot corner (Fangraphs doesn’t separate players by games played at each position on its rankings). Turner at least has 22 games, but it’s still an uphill battle for him to leapfrog such candidates as Matt Carpenter, Todd Frazier, Nolan Arenado and Cubs rookie Kris Bryant. In case you’re wondering, Juan Uribe is just outside the top 20.
You’ll also find Guerrero in fifth place in left field, two spots ahead of Scott Van Slyke. Nori Aoki, Justin Upton, Charlie Blackmon and Matt Holliday lead in left field. Guerrero’s best shot would be if he keeps hitting, and the NL falls in love with a combination left fielder-third baseman from Bruce Bochy’s division rival.
Jimmy Rollins is one spot ahead of 2013-14 All-Star Troy Tulowitzki in WAR at shortstop, but unfortunately that’s down at 12th.

Adrian Gonzalez brings home 1,000th (and 1,001st) RBI

By Jon Weisman

On May 26, 2015

In Offense, Postgame

Congratulations, @AdrianTitan23! pic.twitter.com/DfQzkrqWry

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) May 27, 2015

On a night that Clayton Kershaw made the extraordinary (seven shutout innings, 10 strikeouts) seem ordinary again, let’s take a moment to salute someone turning the ordinary RBI into something extraordinary. (Whew — crammed a lot into that sentence.) With his two-run homer in the sixth inning of the Dodgers’ 8-0 romp over Atlanta, Adrian Gonzalez reached and passed the 1,000 RBI plateau.

Gonzalez’s homer was one of many Dodger highlights on offense. Every Dodger starter had at least one hit for the first time since September 16. And as the Dodgers’ PR department notes, it was the Dodgers’ largest shutout victory over the Braves since a 9-0 win September 17, 1984 at Atlanta.

— Jon Weisman

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Who were the last Dodgers born in each decade?

By Jon Weisman

On May 26, 2015

In History

Manny Mota

By Jon Weisman

Something in the news today made me notice that Joel Peralta, Jimmy Rollins and Juan Uribe are the only active Dodgers remaining who were born in the 1970s.

Naturally (or, upon reflection, perversely), I became curious about who held that honor in past years. Here’s the honor roll of players who were the last Dodgers born in each previous decade:

1960s: Brad Ausmus, b. 1969 (2010, age 41)
1950s: Rickey Henderson, b. 1958 (2002, age 44)
1940s: Rick Dempsey, b. 1949 (1990, age 41)
1930s: Manny Mota, b. 1938 (1982, age 44)
1920s: Hoyt Wilhelm, b. 1922 (1972, age 49)
1910s: Pee Wee Reese, b. 1918 (1958, age 40)
1900s: Curt Davis, b. 1903 (1946, age 42)
1890s: Kiki Cuyler, b. 1898 (1938, age 40)
1880s: Jack Quinn, b. 1883 (1932, age 49)
1870s: Kid Elberfield, b. 1875 (1914, age 39)
1860s: Patsy Donovan, b. 1865 (1907, age 42)
1850s: George Shoch, b. 1859 (1897, age 38)

Sutton was the last Dodger born before the end of World War II, Reese the last before the end of World War I and Donovan the last born before the end of the Civil War.

The oldest recorded birth year for any player associated with the Dodger franchise is 1851, for outfielder Jack Remsen, who finished his career with the 1884 Brooklyn Atlantics of the American Association. For the National League years, you can go all the way back to infielder Jack Burdock (b. 1852), who got the 1,231st and final hit of his career with the 1891 Brooklyn Grooms.

In case you missed it: Catch a falling star

By Jon Weisman

On May 25, 2015

In Health/injuries, In case you missed it, Pregame

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For photos from Sunday, visit LA Photog Blog.

Braves at Dodgers, 5:10 p.m.
Joc Pederson, CF
Jimmy Rollins, SS
Howie Kendrick, 2B
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
Justin Turner, 3B
Andre Ethier, RF
Scott Van Slyke, LF
A.J. Ellis, C
Brett Anderson, P

By Jon Weisman

Boy, that Bobby Crosby is something. He is more coordinated with a baseball flying at blazing speed toward him than I am at … anything.

See above for his latest cameraball feat, and see the bottom of this post for our May 2014 Dodger Insider magazine profile on him.

Carlos Frias matched the worst start in Dodger history Sunday by allowing 10 runs, but it’s not even the worst start in the Majors this weekend. Today, Kansas City righty Jeremy Guthrie allowed 11 runs while getting only three batters out.
Frias’ game score of -4 was the worst in Los Angeles Dodger history and the worst in the franchise since Johnny Babich’s record -21, when he gave up 13 runs on 16 hits and two walks with one strikeout almost exactly 80 years ago, on June 23, 1935.
In his 61-inning MLB career, Frias has allowed 39 runs — 18 of those runs in the 4 2/3 combined innings of his starts Sunday against San Diego and September 17 in Colorado. In his remaining 56 1/3 innings, Frias has allowed 21 runs.
Brett Anderson has not only been rained on in three straight starts, he has drawn a base on balls while batting as well, notes Eric Stephen of True Blue L.A.
Yasmani Grandal will play designated hitter for Triple-A Oklahoma City this week, ahead of his expected reactivation by the Dodgers on Saturday.
Brandons Beachy and League are headed for Camelback Ranch later this week for the next step of their respective journeys back to action, with minor-league rehabilitation assignments apparently on the horizon for June.
Erik Bedard took the mound in a game for the first time since Spring Training, starting for single-A Rancho Cucamonga.

Remembering ’65: Memorial Day time capsule

By Jon Weisman

On May 25, 2015

In History, Remembering '65

By Jon Weisman

The 1965 Dodgers spent the last 28 days of May in first place — including Memorial Day, May 31, when 50,997 at Dodger Stadium saw the Dodgers and Reds split a doubleheader — but it was hardly an uneventful month. Here’s a word album of what was happening 50 years ago …

Video: Hector Olivera works out at Camelback

By Jon Weisman

On May 25, 2015

In International

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Here are some video highlights from Camelback Ranch of Hector Olivera, who officially became a Dodger on May 19.

— Jon Weisman

Changing of the guard at third base

By Jon Weisman

On May 24, 2015

In Pregame

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For more photos from Saturday, visit LA Photog Blog.

Padres at Dodgers, 1:10 p.m.
Joc Pederson, CF
Jimmy Rollins, SS
Howie Kendrick, 2B
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
Andre Ethier, RF
Alex Guerrero, 3B
Kiké Hernandez, LF
Austin Barnes, C
Carlos Frias, P

By Jon Weisman

Don Mattingly never came out and said that Juan Uribe had been benched at third base after being the starter there for the past two seasons, but the lineups this month have indicated as much.

With a week to go in May, Uribe has four total bases this month (on four singles) plus a walk. Since making back-to-back starts May 7-8, Uribe has made two starts in the past 16 days.

Speaking to reporters this morning, Mattingly said his intention to keep putting the guys out there who are playing well, and for now that means Justin Turner and Alex Guerrero. On the horizon, of course, is Hector Olivera, who could be on the Major League roster before June is over.

Turner, who has started 11 games at third base this month, has a .421 on-base percentage and .617 slugging percentage in May. As a Dodger, Turner has a .397 OBP while slugging .505. Among players with at least 400 plate appearances, Turner has the fifth-best adjusted OPS in Dodger history, behind Manny Ramirez, Gary Sheffield, Mike Piazza and Jack Fournier.

Guerrero has cooled since his Rookie of the Month performance in April. This month, Guerrero has a .283 OBP while slugging .380. He is making his fourth start of the month today at third base and eighth at the position this year, to go with 11 starts in left field.

Today, Kiké Hernandez is making his first start as a Dodger in left field, while Austin Barnes is making his MLB debut at catcher.

Bol-slinger!

By Jon Weisman

On May 23, 2015

In Postgame

Matthew Mesa/Los Angeles Dodgers

By Jon Weisman

He’s the man, the man with the golden pitch.

Taking a promising start to the next level, Mike Bolsinger — designated for assignment by Arizona after the 2014 season — retired 23 batters in a row after allowing a leadoff single, facing the minimum 24 hitters over eight innings in a 2-1 Dodger victory.

Bolsinger struck out a career-high eight and got 10 outs via the ground ball (including a first-inning double play and a diving stop off the mound in the eighth), using only 92 pitches. He’s the first Dodger to complete eight innings this year, and his Game Score of 88 is 10 higher than the previous top Dodger performance of the year, by Zack Greinke on May 5.

“I was just locating on the offspeed pitches, getting ahead of batters, and it was really working for me,” Bolsinger said on the field after the game. “Getting ahead of guys — that’s been the most important thing.”

The 27-year-old righty, acquired for cash considerations six months and one day ago, lowered his ERA to 0.71 in 25 1/3 innings this year, with 22 strikeouts and a 0.79 WHIP. A year ago, he had a 5.50 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in 52 1/3 innings for Arizona.

“People have been asking me (what the difference is this year),” Bolsinger told reporters in the clubhouse. “I don’t know, something just clicked in my head. People ask me how (I) feel, and it’s just, I’m locked in. That’s the best way to describe it — just locked in.”

Said catcher A.J. Ellis: “He was executing all night long. He had a great mix going. Just really keeping them off-balance by using different sequences, different ways of attacking guys. He just does a really nice job of keeping (his curveball) around the strike zone. It’s just enough of a pitch that teases you, and just when you’re ready to hit one that you think is a strike, it breaks out of the zone, and just when you think one is gonna be a ball, it drops in.”

“To be honest with you, this was a guy we saw last year with Arizona who had a tough go of it,” Ellis said. “He came over, and just seeing the way he went about his business … he’s got a great demeanor, great mound presence, never gets too up, never gets too down. He’s a really fun guy to catch.”

Joc Pederson’s leadoff homer in the bottom of the first (his 12th of the season and technically, his second game-winning homer in a row) and Justin Turner’s RBI double in the sixth accounted for the Dodger runs. Kenley Jansen extended his hitless streak to 13 batters in picking up the save, ending the game in 131 minutes (the shortest nine-inning Dodger game since August 23, 2013).

This was the Dodgers’ first one-hitter since June 30, when Dan Haren, Brian Wilson and Jansen combined to lift the Dodgers into first place. And, it’s the first Dodger one-hitter in less than 100 pitches since Hiroki Kuroda’s complete-game, 91-pitch effort on July 7, 2008.

Previously on Dodger Insider: “Opponents in high school, Mike Bolsinger and Clayton Kershaw are now teammates”

Derrel Thomas, true emergency catcher extraordinaire

By Jon Weisman

On May 23, 2015

In Catching, History

Though he caught only six games in a 15-year career, Derrel Thomas embraces the opportunity to go behind the plate, such as at the Dodgers' Old-Timers Game on May 16. (Juan Ocampo/Los Angeles Dodgers)

Though he caught in only six games of a 15-season MLB career, Derrel Thomas embraces the opportunity to go behind the plate, such as at the Dodgers’ Old-Timers Game on May 16. (Juan Ocampo/Los Angeles Dodgers)

By Jon Weisman

Though it’s doubtful he’ll ever be called upon for this, especially with Austin Barnes on his way to Los Angeles, Kiké Hernandez has become the Dodgers’ emergency catcher. Just in case, Hernandez caught a bullpen session from Brett Anderson this afternoon.

The last non-catcher the Dodgers have really needed to use behind the plate was Derrel Thomas in 1980. This has always been one of my favorite Dodger stories, not only because it was so unlikely for even a proven utility player like Thomas to go behind the plate, but because it wasn’t a one-time thing.

With Steve Yeager nursing an infected elbow and Triple-A starting catcher Mike Scioscia recovering from a broken finger, Joe Ferguson had to leave in the fourth inning of an April 15, 1980 game at San Diego with a back problem. Thomas went behind the plate for the first time in a game at any level — with knuckleballer Charlie Hough on the mound, no less — and stayed there for the next 31 innings.

“He weighs 150 pounds,” wrote Mike Littwin of the Times that week. “A catcher’s gear weighs almost that much.”

Using Yeager’s glove, Thomas was behind the plate for 137 batters and had four passed balls. No one tried to steal against him on April 15 or April 16, but on April 17, with the slow delivery of Don Sutton 60-and-a-half feet away, Houston stole seven bases, two shy of the Dodger record at the time by a Dodger opponent. However, Thomas did throw out Enos Cabell trying to steal second in the sixth inning, for the only caught stealing of Thomas’ backstop career.

Despite his objective struggles behind the plate, the Dodgers adored Thomas’ effort.

“Show me another guy who could do what he did today,” Dodger manager Tommy Lasorda told Littwin. “I’ve been in baseball nearly all my life, and I’ve never seen anything like it. I’m so grateful to him. He’s a great athlete, but more than that, he’s courageous.”

Said Yeager: “You have to handle pitchers and you have to keep the ball in front of you. I told Derrel a couple of things last night and he remembered. He’s a fast learner, and he’s got a lot of guts. All things considered, he did a great job back there. Hey, I weigh 215 pounds. When’s the last time you saw a 150-pound catcher?”

Here’s more from Littwin:

As Thomas, his uniform caked with dirt, sweat dripping from his brow, limped into the clubhouse, someone asked him how he felt. “I feel, he said, like I should be dead.”

His legs might have been. At that point, he couldn’t have jumped over a chalk baseline.

“I didn’t sleep last night,” he said. “I was too nervous. There are so many things to remember. When they got those guys on base, I just tried to stay relaxed and remember what Yang (Yeager) had told me to do.

“I didn’t care if they stole 30 bases, as long as we won.”

The Dodgers won two of Thomas’ three starts at catcher. Yeager, who had been sidelined since April 13, returned to the starting lineup April 19. Scioscia would then be called up April 20 to make his Major League debut.

After catching the ninth inning of a 2-0, one-hit loss to J.R. Richard of the Astros on April 19 (Yeager had gone out for a pinch-hitter), the Dodgers never needed to use Thomas behind the plate again. But it wasn’t the last time the Dodgers saw him with the tools of ignorance.

In the last season of his 15-year Major League career, as a 34-year-old with Philadelphia, Thomas entered the game behind the plate after Phillies catcher Ozzie Virgil left in the top of the eighth inning of an August 21, 1985 game against visiting Los Angeles with a bruised wrist. In the bottom of that same inning, Thomas hit a three-run homer off Fernando Valenzuela — the 43rd and final home run of Thomas’ big-league career.

It also meant that after previously homering as a first baseman, second baseman, shortstop, third baseman, left fielder, center fielder, right fielder and pinch-hitter, Derrel Thomas had also hit one out as, yes, a catcher.

With Grandal sidelined, Dodgers call up Austin Barnes

By Jon Weisman

On May 23, 2015

In Health/injuries, Pregame, Transactions

Austin Barnes in action during Spring Training (Jon SooHoo/Los Angeles Dodgers)

Padres at Dodgers, 7:10 p.m.
Joc Pederson, CF
Jimmy Rollins, SS
Howie Kendrick, 2B
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
Justin Turner, 3B
Andre Ethier, RF
Scott Van Slyke, LF
A.J. Ellis, C
Mike Bolsinger, P

By Jon Weisman

Yasmani Grandal has become the first Dodger to be placed on the seven-day concussion disabled list since Major League Baseball created the option in 2011.

In another first, 25-year-old Austin Barnes has been called up from Triple-A Oklahoma City and will be making his Major League debut as soon as he enters a game. For starters, however, A.J. Ellis is behind the plate in tonight’s lineup.

Barnes has pro experience at second and third base, as we discussed in February, but the Dodgers have used him exclusively at catcher in 2015. The 5-foot-10, 185-pounder has three passed balls in 248 innings while throwing out nine of 23 attempting to steal.

At the plate for Oklahoma City, Barnes has a .390 on-base percentage and .430 slugging percentage, continuing a career long trend of walking more than striking out. In a current eight-game hitting streak, he is 11-for-30 (.367) and has struck out one time in his past 50 plate appearances.

In case you missed it: New stat places A.J. Ellis No. 1 in game-calling

By Jon Weisman

On May 23, 2015

In Catching, Health/injuries, In case you missed it, Offense

For more photos from Friday, visit LA Photog Blog.

By Jon Weisman

Dodger catcher A.J. Ellis — who was thrust into action midway through Friday’s 2-1 victory over San Diego after Yasmani Grandal was injured — has taken some grief in recent times for not being a strong pitch framer. However, according to a report by Harry Pavlidis for ESPN.com, Ellis ranks No. 1 in Major League Baseball in a new statistic measuring game calling: game-calling runs above average (GCAA).

Here’s a fun task: Try quantifying something as ephemeral as game-calling. Well, after a decade of research, that’s just what we’ve managed to do — by crafting a statistical model that attempts to quantify the value of everything from stolen-base prevention and directing pace of play to identifying hitter tendencies like swing behavior in various game situations and knowing which batters expand hit zones in RBI opportunities. Sound complicated? Oh, it is. But based on these factors, and controlling for others, we can now quantify, in runs saved, how well catchers manage their pitchers. …

… Ellis is the best game caller in the business, and now we can actually prove it. His game-calling alone saved the Dodgers 38 runs from 2012 to 2014, though he gave back 19 of those runs with everything else he did behind the plate (see below). Does it hurt to be Ellis? At times, perhaps. But at least now, when that ninth foul tip slaps his once-unheralded (but now-appreciated) inner thigh, it might not sting quite so much.

There’s not a whole lot of detail in describing the methodology behind GCAA, so we’ll see how it stands up to scrutiny. Update: On his Twitter feed, Pavlidis has been adding to the discussion.

Grandal, meanwhile, is uncertain for tonight’s game after being hit in the face in consecutive innings Friday by Yangervis Solarte’s bat and a Matt Kemp foul ball. Triple-A catcher Austin Barnes was removed midway through Oklahoma City’s game Friday in case he needs to be called up. Ken Gurnick of MLB.com has more details.

In other developments …

Hyun-Jin Ryu spoke to reporters post-surgery Friday, and revealed that there was knowledge about his labrum tear two years and 344 innings of 3.17 ERA ago. ” Ryu, his left arm in a sling during a Dodger Stadium news conference, said he was always able to pitch with it and figured he’d be able to again after it flared up in Spring Training,” wrote Gurnick.
Yasiel Puig and Carl Crawford are not much closer to returning to the Dodger outfield, Don Mattingly told reporters Friday. Puig, who has an .845 OPS in 50 plate appearances, has felt tightness trying to even jog.
Double-A Tulsa righty pitcher (and converted outfielder) Blake Smith was traded by the Dodgers to the White Sox for right-handed pitcher Eric Surkamp. Both are 27 years old. In 53 2/3 career MLB innings, Surkamp has a 6.20 ERA with 33 strikeouts against 98 baserunners. For Triple-A Charlotte this year, Surkamp has a 2.81 ERA with 30 strikeouts against 28 baserunners in 25 2/3 innings.
Carlos Frias’ ongoing adjustments are the subject of Daniel Brim’s piece on Carlos Frias today at Dodgers Digest.
The Dodgers’ offensive scoreless-inning streak ended at a record-tying 35 innings with Andre Ethier’s RBI double in the fifth, though they didn’t score an earned run until Joc Pederson’s game-winning homer three innings later.
Chris Hatcher, who threw 1/105th of the pitches that Zack Greinke threw, was credited with his first career Dodger victory.
Kenley Jansen struck out two in his perfect ninth inning. His K/9 dropped to 21.0.
Pederson has struck out four times in his past 39 plate appearances (10.3 percent). Prior to that in 2015, he had struck out 43 times in 127 plate appearances (33.9 percent).

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In case you missed it: Bobblesplash

By Jon Weisman

On May 22, 2015

In In case you missed it

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By Jon Weisman

These bobblehead ads just get better and better — with more special effects! Which mini-Dodger will get the Emmy?

Here are a few quick items that popped up recently …

Hyun-Jin Ryu had his surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder Thursday, and Ken Gurnick of MLB.com has the update.

… The degree of Ryu’s tear (and presumably any accompanying damage) is being portrayed by the club as relatively minor. By comparison to the high rate of return to success for Tommy John patients, the record of pitchers returning from shoulder labrum operations to reclaim their prior form is checkered.

The injury was once considered career-ending, but recent medical advances have improved the chances.

Comeback stories range from successes Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling to unfortunate endings like Jason Schmidt, Mark Prior and Mark Mulder. The most recent successful return from the operation is Yankees pitcher Michael Pineda. …
On the anniversary of his initial callup to the Major Leagues, shortstop Erisbel Arruebarrena was suspended by the Dodgers for the remainder of the 2015 season due to repeated failures to comply with his contract. More from Gurnick here.
The Dodgers’ 31-inning scoreless streak is put into historical context by Eric Stephen of True Blue L.A.
Hey, we could use some positive news. Here’s one: Joc Pederson’s swing gets an analytical love note from Ryan Parker of Baseball Prospectus.
David Schoenfield of ESPN.com’s Sweet Spot looks at the relative strengths and weakness of the Giants and Dodgers going forward.
Bill Shaikin of the Times looks at the fortunes and misfortunes of the Dodgers’ next opponent, San Diego.
Here’s a history of the eephus pitch, from Jonah Keri at Grantland.
At age 38, twice former Dodger lefty Randy Wolf is pitching for Toronto’s Triple-A affiliate, and he tells John Lott of the National Post (via MLB Trade Rumors) that he’s just “enjoying the moment,” regardless of whether he returns to the Majors. “When you retire you can do a lot of things in your life,” Wolf said. “But as far as the baseball aspect, it’s like death. You’re going to be dead a lot longer than you live.”

Clayton Kershaw, Madison Bumgarner and a twisted, twisted game

By Jon Weisman

On May 22, 2015

In Postgame

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By Jon Weisman

On April 1, 2013, Clayton Kershaw homered in a 4-0 victory over the Giants, in a year he would beat them three times with a 1.38 ERA.

On May 21, 2015, Madison Bumgarner homered in a 4-0 victory over the Dodgers, in a year he has beaten them three times* with a 1.31 ERA.

*OK, one of those was a no-decision in a Giants victory, but allow me my symmetry.

I can’t help but find the most interesting thing about Thursday’s game in San Francisco is not the state of the Dodger offense — please, you can’t be blind to understanding that the freakish scoreless streak will soon become a memory — but just that baseball never ceases to be baseball.

Frankly, that’s true as far as analyzing Thursday’s game goes. Baseball was so baseball yesterday.

Let’s take the ongoing drama “CSI: Kershaw.” For seven innings, Kershaw outpitched Bumgarner. Despite leaving with a 2-0 lead, Bumgarner was in trouble all day, allowing 10 baserunners in six innings, but he got another great catch from outfielder Angel Pagan and was bailed out at one critical point by Alex Guerrero’s remarkable baserunning blunder. The Giants lefty got one out in the seventh and then was done.

Kershaw made one gruesome pitch to Bumgarner in the third, then allowed three batters to reach base in a one-run fourth. The rest of those seven innings, Kershaw allowed two hits and two walks while striking out seven, all in an efficient 91 pitches.

Then, in an eighth inning Bumgarner was long gone from, Kershaw allowed two baserunners whom the Dodger defense and bullpen let score, and once again, instead of going down, Kershaw’s ERA went up.

But we can also say this: For seven innings, Bumgarner outpitched Kershaw. I’m not oblivious to the fact that nothing matters more than keeping zeroes on the scoreboard, and that Bumgarner deserves the lion’s share of credit, not to mention the share of almost every other animal, for the Dodgers’ 0-for-7 performance with runners in scoring position. Bumgarner was the winner Thursday, and deservedly so.

To that apparent contradiction, I offer this reasoning that erstwhile “Simpsons” voice actor Harry Shearer presented to Marc Maron earlier this year.

I have to say about this something that I learned from my six years of analysis, of psychoanalysis. Which is, one mark of adulthood is you can hold two conflicting emotions about the same thing at the same time. Two things can be true at the same time. So it is true that as an actor on an insanely successful TV series, I am by any standards of the human species obscenely overpaid. It is also true that as an actor on one of the most insanely successful television series of all time, I am getting royally screwed. Both things are true.

In other words: baseball.

How Clayton Kershaw became underrated

By Jon Weisman

On May 21, 2015

In Pregame

By Jon Weisman

Here are the earned runs by innings against Clayton Kershaw over his past six starts:

000 100 xxx (six innings on April 17 vs. Colorado, left for pinch-hitter)
002 000 xxx (six innings on April 22 at San Francisco, left for pinch-hitter)
100 100 0xx (seven innings on April 28 vs. San Francisco, left for pinch-hitter)
000 001 03x (7 1/3 innings on May 4 at Milwaukee)
000 500 xxx (5 2/3 innings on May 10 at Colorado)
000 000 3xx (6 2/3 innings on May 15 vs. Colorado)

In the past 40 innings that he has taken the mound, Kershaw has allowed earned runs in eight of them.

Dodgers at Giants, 12:45 p.m.
Kershaw CCXVIII: The Kershow with David Letterman
Joc Pederson, CF
Kiké Hernandez, SS
Howie Kendrick, 2B
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
Justin Turner, 3B
Scott Van Slyke, RF
Alex Guerrero, LF
A.J. Ellis, C
Clayton Kershaw, P

For a 26-inning stretch from April 17 through the seventh inning May 4 in Milwaukee, Kershaw had a 2.08 ERA with two walks against 37 strikeouts, and the only thing that could stop him was the Dodgers’ need for a pinch-hitter. And all people did was complain about how ineffective he was.

Since then, he has had three rough innings out of 12 — not his finest cumulative hour. Several analysts online have written “what’s wrong with Kershaw” pieces, and what it seems to come to down to is pitch selection, a slightly less effective slider and — particularly in that lone Coors Field inning, which accounts for 31 percent of the runs Kershaw has allowed over his past 38 2/3 innings — some bleeding rotten fortune.

Here are two things that stick out to me:

Opponents have swung at the first pitch in 39 percent of their plate appearances against Kershaw this year, and are hitting .308/.341/.564/.906. Last year, they swung at the first pitch 41 percent of the time, but hit .199/.204/.321/.525.
With runners in scoring position, opponents are hitting .347/.396/.469/.866 with a .485 batting average on balls in play. Last year, they hit .190/.233/.355/.588 in RISP situations with a .276 BABIP.

The first problem is certainly fixable; the second might fix itself.

One thing I suspected Kershaw might be having trouble with didn’t turn out to be true. Of his 14 walks (that’s all) in eight starts this year, half have come with the bases empty — but that’s actually a far better percentage than last year, when 22 of his 31 walks came with the bases empty. And yet hitters are only OPSing .654 against him with nobody on. Since April 17, only one player (D.J. LeMahieu) has scored off Kershaw after drawing a bases-empty walk. So the start of innings hasn’t been the problem.

The upshot of all remains that for all that Kershaw might be doing wrong, he is doing so much that is right. Perhaps most importantly, based on his velocity, there is no indication that there’s anything physically amiss. This is still a pitcher who leads Major League Baseball in xFIP (2.15).

Our concerns about Kershaw probably say more about us than they do about him. No one’s been unhappier about his performance than Kershaw himself, but he has managed to do what should have been unthinkable — become an underrated pitcher.

Alex Guerrero looks to keep bouncing back

By Jon Weisman

On May 20, 2015

In Pregame

Half of Alex Guerrero’s 22 hits this season have been for extra bases, including four extra-base hits in May. (Jon SooHoo/Los Angeles Dodgers)

Dodgers at Giants, 7:15 p.m.
Joc Pederson, CF
Jimmy Rollins, SS
Howie Kendrick, 2B
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
Alex Guerrero, LF
Yasmani Grandal, C
Andre Ethier, RF
Juan Uribe, 3B
Brett Anderson, P

By Jon Weisman

Alex Guerrero is making his 12th start in May tonight, essentially qualifying him as a regular for the time being. The third baseman-left fielder has made more starts than Justin Turner, Juan Uribe or Scott Van Slyke this month.

Since beginning the season with five homers in his first 22 at-bats through April 26, Guerrero has one homer in his past 45 at-bats. He has a .292 on-base percentage and .400 slugging percentage in that time, numbers buoyed by his 2-for-4 performance in Tuesday’s 2-0 loss at San Francisco. Guerrero ended a mini-slump in which he had gone 0 for 9.

Guerrero has a .323 batting average on balls in play since April 27, while striking out in 27 percent of his plate appearances.

Dodger Thoughts

Jon Weisman's outlet for dealing psychologically with the Los Angeles Dodgers, baseball and life

Month: May 2015 (Page 2 of 6)

Adrian Gonzalez leads NL All-Star balloting at first — other Dodgers trail

Adrian Gonzalez brings home 1,000th (and 1,001st) RBI

Who were the last Dodgers born in each decade?

In case you missed it: Catch a falling star

Remembering ’65: Memorial Day time capsule

Video: Hector Olivera works out at Camelback

Changing of the guard at third base

Bol-slinger!

Derrel Thomas, true emergency catcher extraordinaire

With Grandal sidelined, Dodgers call up Austin Barnes

In case you missed it: New stat places A.J. Ellis No. 1 in game-calling

In case you missed it: Bobblesplash

Clayton Kershaw, Madison Bumgarner and a twisted, twisted game

*OK, one of those was a no-decision in a Giants victory, but allow me my symmetry.

How Clayton Kershaw became underrated

Alex Guerrero looks to keep bouncing back

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