Dodger Thoughts

Let’s begin by thanking Bob Timmermann for his usual impeccable savoir-faire in guiding Dodger Thoughts over the past week. He’s the best.

It was around this time last year that I truly began to feel pulled in so many directions, leading me to put this site on my backburner for more than six months. With the team inches away from the playoffs, that won’t be happening this September, though I can’t say that I feel any more adept in managing my work efforts. Single-minded focus on one aspect of my career over the winter had twists that I didn’t anticipate – what else is new?

But at least the Dodgers have gotten their act together. And it’s just kind of crazy. In 25 years, playing in the World Series, hasn’t seemed so near-fetched.

Game 7 of the World Series, if there is one, is scheduled for Halloween. Don’t tell my kids.

But that’s so far away. Playoff baseball is when dreams go on a terror ride, a mystery train that might never reach its destination. In recent times, the Dodgers have won playoff series that surprised many (2008 against the Cubs, 2009 against the Cardinals) and lost just when some thought they would win (Philadelphia, Philadelphia), the exult and the bitter in an extreme.

Imagine Friday’s relatively meaningless September game against San Francisco happened to be the finale of the National League Championship Series in October, a game that was essentially a tossup deciding whether or not Dodger fans would be elated or deflated. It almost doesn’t seem right. It’s almost too powerful to wrap your head around.

You plan and prepare and maybe even pray. You have some control over your fate, but you never really know how much. Amid all the chaos, you just hope that it’s your turn.

Dodgers at Giants, 7:10 p.m.
Kershaw CLXXX: Kershawn Jon

(Bob here, I just wanted to drop in a soccer reference before Jon gets back.)

Be sure to pronounce “derby” with an “a” sound.

Mike Petriello wrote about whom the Dodgers TV announcers should be when the team switches networks. Will Eric Collins and Steve Lyons be back? Someone needs to work road games in states that are not California and Arizona. Also, there needs to be a plan for the time when Vin Scully isn’t the Dodgers announcer anymore.

And then there will be the even bigger problem about whether or not companies like DirecTV will pick up the new channel owned by Time-Warner. Because there is nothing more rewarding than watching carriers and content providers carry on public contract squabbles while the people watching just don’t really care about why they can’t see what they want. They just want to see it.

Dodgers at Giants, 7:10 p.m.

The Dodgers selected the contract of Onelki Garcia from Albuquerque and placed Shawn Tolleson on the 60-day DL. This means that the Dodgers bullpen will now need stadium-style seating for all the players to see. Interestingly, the one place in Dodger Stadium without stadium-style seating is on the floor on the stadium.

Some players are holding out for cup holders in their seats.

The Dodgers bullpen has 12 members now. Although the status of Chris Capuano is hard to determine. It’s baffling to figure out just what it is and I’ve termed this problem “Schroedinger’s Cappy.”

If the Dodgers win tonight, the only teams in the NL with winning records will be the five teams in playoff positions and Washington.

Diamondbacks at Dodgers, 7:10 p.m.

It is the 30th anniversary of this event, and 10 years since I first wrote about it. My best to you all …

* * *

Twenty years ago today, Dodger Stadium hosted its greatest game.

It began swathed in bright blue skies and triple-digit temperatures. When it ended, 228 crazy brilliant minutes later, shadows palmed most of the playing field, and every Dodger fan who witnessed the spectacle found themselves near joyous collapse.

The game was between the Dodgers of Steve Sax and Pedro Guerrero, of Greg Brock and Mike Marshall … and the Braves of Dale Murphy, of Bruce Benedict, of Brad Komminsk.

In the end, however, it came down to one man. A rookie named R.J. Reynolds.

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Tonight, the Dodgers try to find out if Edinson Volquez’s last start was the fault of Coors Field or the fault of Edinson Volquez not being any good any more. Trevor Cahill hopes to hold the Dodgers to fewer than six homers.

Adrian Gonzalez is the Dodgers nominee for the 2013 Marvin Miller Man of the Year Award sponsored by the Players Association. You can vote on the award and read about the other nominees at the MLBPA website. After Sunday, there will be winners from each division and then the players will choose from among those six.

Thinking about 2014 already? The Dodgers and Diamondbacks will open the season on March 22 in Sydney. Their North American opener will be March 31 at San Diego. Their Los Angeles opener will be April 4 against the Giants. And there will be a World Series rematch against the Tigers at Dodger Stadium on April 8-9.

OK, a little presumptuous on that one. But, if the Dodgers play the Tigers in the World Series, it would mean that the Dodgers would be the first NL team to play all eight of the original American League franchises in the World Series: Red Sox (1916), Cleveland (1920), Yankees (1941, etc.), White Sox (1959), Twins (1965), Orioles (1966), A’s (1974, 1988).

And this video made its Dodger Stadium debut last night:

Dodgers at Diamondbacks, 7:10 p.m.

The Dodgers won last year’s Hello Kitty Bobblehead giveaway 8-3 over the Mets. It was not a pretty game. The Dodgers lost a Hello Kitty Blanket giveaway 7-2 to the Padres back on April 17. That wasn’t very exciting either. And back on September 18, 2011, the Dodgers gave away a small Hello Kitty doll. They beat the Pirates that day 15-1.

Also 48 years ago today, Sandy Koufax was interviewed on the postgame show by Maury Wills.

Photo from the Herald-Examiner Collection of the Los Angeles Public Library

(Bob here, although Jon wrote the headline)

Back in 1988, I spent much of the baseball season living up in Berkeley, where I was attending library school. [No we didn’t have a class in shushing. That was for the doctoral candidates.] By the time I was done with my studies and moved back home, baseball season was nearly over.

On the Saturday before I started worked at my first ever fulltime job, I went to go see the Dodgers penultimate game of the year. The Dodgers beat the Giants 2-1 in a brisk 2:09.

Tim Belcher started for the Dodgers and went five innings before being pulled to give Fernando Valenzuela, who was recovering from a shoulder injury, four innings of work. Fernando gave up one unearned run in four innings and got the save.

I sat way up in the top deck and I recall it being a fairly hot day with some nasty air quality. I was showing off Dodger Stadium for the first time to a friend from Berkeley and he couldn’t see why the place was so special. There was a lone Giants fan behind me who chanted “OOOH-RE-BAY” nearly the ENTIRE GAME. (Jose Uribe went 0 for 3 in the game.)

But, I digress.  I felt somewhat sad that Valenzuela, the Dodgers biggest star of the 1980s, had been shunted to the sidelines for the upcoming playoff run. Orel Hershiser and Kirk Gibson were the big stories. Fernando wasn’t the story of 1988, but he had been the story of 1980, 1981, 1982, 1983, 1985, pretty much all the other times the Dodgers made the playoffs or came close. But not in 1988.

This leads me to think of the rehabbing Matt Kemp in Glendale. Kemp, who was derided by the media and fans for underachieving and/or having “bad attitude” from 2006-2010, only to have his reputation rehabilitated with his tremendous 2011, has been hurt much of this season (and last season too). He toils away in relative anonymity at Saddleback Cadillac Camelback Ranch (you know, the place in Arizona with the thing). And, for many fans, Kemp is now ready to be tossed to the side.

No one knows for sure if Kemp will even make it back up to the major league roster in the last three weeks of the season. Maybe he will get to make some token appearances in the Dodgers final two series, just like Fernando did in 1988. Or maybe we will just have to wait until 2014. Or face a long term future of: Andre Ethier, centerfielder. How many teams in the majors would be better off with a healthy Matt Kemp in the outfield? All of them.

Dodgers at Reds, 5:05 p.m.

Early start today!

Last night, while shopping with my wife at the market, I watched the final two innings of the Giants-DBacks game on my phone, which actually worked quite well. And I almost timed it so I’d still be in the market when the game ended. Then, when I didn’t want to hear it, I heard, “Sir, I’ll open this register for you!” Anyway, I saw Eric Chavez’s hit with two outs in the ninth in the parking lot as I put groceries into the car.

The Reds start today just two games out of first place, but in third, and they can’t change places because the first place Pirates and second place Cardinals play each other. The Pirates have a 1/2 game lead.

The White Sox became the third team to be mathematically eliminated from all playoff hopes. The only other teams that may not last the weekend are the Cubs and Brewers, but they play each other.

The Cubs, Brewers are eliminated from their divisional races, but could still win the wild card. (They won’t, but they could!) The Phillies will be eliminated from the NL East race if they lose to the Braves. The Mets will be out of the the NL East race with a loss to Cleveland and an Atlanta win. The Giants will be eliminated from the NL West race with a loss to Arizona and a Dodgers win.

The Dodgers are trying to avoid their first three-game losing streak since June 8-10 when they lost two games to Atlanta and one to Arizona. The June 10 game was one where the Dodgers led 3-1 going to the 9th and Brandon League gave up four runs. The Dodgers got a home run from Juan Uribe off of Heath Bell, and then put runners on first and third with no outs. Where they stayed for the next three batters. Kenley Jansen got the save in the Dodgers win the next day.

A note from Frank Vaccaro of SABR that I picked up on the organization’s listserv. The Dodgers were in last place at the start of play on July 2. They since have built up a lead of more than 10 games in the standings. The only team to build up a 10+ game lead in the standings after being in last place at a later date were the 1914 Boston Braves, who were in last place on July 19. However, this year’s Dodgers had played two more games (81 to 79) than the Miracle Braves at those points in the season.

Finally, the biggest duel of the season going on in this series is the one between Adrian Gonzalez and Zack Cosart for the NL lead in sacrifice flies. Both men have nine. Gonzalez has scored Carl Crawford six times on sacrifice flies, but Cosart has brought home nine different players. No Dodger has led the NL in sacrifice flies since 1978 when Reggie Smith had 13.  The MLB record for sacrifice flies in a year (a stat that dates back just to 1954 in its present form) is 19 by Gil Hodges back in 1954.

Dodgers at Reds, 10:05 a.m.

(Bob here. The software makes it looks like Jon is the author)

For those of us who are old, as in “over 30”, we still think of the Reds as an NL West team, which they were from 1969-1993, winning the NL West eight times (the most of any team in that time span), and having the best overall record in the division in 1981 to boot. So there used to be a lot of intradivisional games that started at weird times for those of us in L.A., but we liked it! Or maybe we didn’t like having to watch Bench, Morgan, Rose and company so much. And so much Ron Oester and Gary Redus too.

If the Dodgers win tonight, their winning percentage will be .6. No need for other digits. If they win they would be 84-56. 84 and 140 are both evenly divisible by 14, (14 X 6) / (14 X 10) = 6/10 = .6 (Do I get a better grade for showing my work?)

Tonight’s series marks the Dodgers last games against a team outside of the NL West. Which is somewhat remarkable with their being five teams in each division and 15 teams in each league. But, the Dodgers managed to get a travel-friendly schedule for the end of the year. After they return home, they travel to the distant lands of Phoenix, San Diego, and San Francisco.

The interleague series to take you home: Mets at Cleveland this weekend, Pittsburgh at Texas from 9/9-11, Seattle at St. Louis 9/13-15, Cincinnati at Houston 9/16-18 (an NL West reunion!), San Francisco at Yankees 9/20-22, Boston at Colorado 9/24-26, and, finally, Detroit at Miami, 9/27-29.

Hyun-Jin Ryu’s back is a little ouchy, so he’s being rested in favor of Chris Capuano.

In happier health news, Reds third base coach Mark Berry found out that his most recent scans showed no return of the throat cancer that sidelined him for parts of the year.

UPDATE: Tony Jackson reports that Matt Kemp’s rehab has been shut down for the time being because of recurring hamstring tightness.

Dodgers at Reds, 4:10 p.m.

Dodgers at Rockies, 5:40 p.m.

Starting Thursday, I will be largely away from Dodger Thoughts for approximately one week, finding myself at the Toronto International Film Festival for Variety for the second year in a row. Game chat threads are set up for each day of action, and the reliable and effervescent Bob Timmermann will be offering his insight as much as his schedule and inclinations allow.

With the magic number for clinching the National League West at 12, Timmermann’s fair reign potentially will include a celebration post.

I imagine there is some concern that the Dodgers are peaking and/or counting their chickens too early, what with their ferociously strong summertime run and tonight’s start of Edinson Volquez in Coors Field.

To that, I offer these soothing thoughts:

1) For those who think they’re peaking too early, well, the lineups of the past two days offer the antidote. I’m practically ready for Don Mattingly to be given a breather and Manny Mota to manage the team for a day.

2) Even if Volquez gets torched, cutting a break to the guys in the potential postseason starting rotation offers a greater good. And Volquez might not get torched.

3) Though there are famous stories of hot teams in the summer flaming out in the fall, there is no cause-effect relationship there. There are plenty of stories of teams that peaked at the last possible moment and still didn’t win the World Series.

4) These Dodgers are hungry. I don’t know if they’re hungry in the same way as the fans who have waited 25 years or their entire lives for a World Series title, but they did not come this far just to go through the motions in October. Don’t buy into the idea that losses are inherently a character flaw.

5) Ultimately, we have limited control over whether the Dodgers win or lose. So just treasure every moment you can.

Dodgers at Rockies, 5:40 p.m.

On June 12 in Arizona, the Dodgers put out a lineup with Nick Punto at shortstop and an outfield of Jerry Hairston Jr., Andre Ethier and Alex Castellanos (who went 2 for 3, by the way). That was the last time the Dodgers entered a game without starting Hanley Ramirez or Yasiel Puig — until today.

Off the bench, Puig singled and scored the Dodgers’ second run in the bottom of the 12th inning of that June 12 game, but Los Angeles still lost, 8-6.  Since that time, they are 54-18, including an unfathomable .800 stretch of 52-13.

Speaking of days off: J.P. Howell hasn’t pitched in a game since August 24 and has faced two batters, throwing 11 pitches, in the past two weeks.

Dodgers at Rockies, 1:10 p.m.

The more I look at this, the more I realize that the Michael Young acquisition pushes Scott Van Slyke off the Dodgers’ potential postseason 25-man roster.

Obviously, things can change on the fringes, and we’re going to knock on wood all month. But for the time being, here’s how it shapes up.

Starters (4)
Clayton Kershaw
Zack Greinke
Hyun-Jin Ryu
Ricky Nolasco

Relievers (7)
Kenley Jansen
Paco Rodriguez
Brian Wilson
Ronald Belisario
J.P. Howell
Chris Withrow
Brandon League or Carlos Marmol

Starting lineup (8)
A.J. Ellis
Adrian Gonzalez
Mark Ellis
Hanley Ramirez
Juan Uribe
Carl Crawford
Andre Ethier
Yasiel Puig

Bench (6)
Matt Kemp (not saying Kemp won’t start – but one of the big four outfielders must go here.)
Tim Federowicz
Michael Young
Nick Punto
Skip Schumaker
Jerry Hairston Jr. or Scott Van Slyke