Dodger Thoughts

In the soothing quiet of a slow news cycle, the Dodgers have made two more roster moves. From The Associated Press:

The Los Angeles Dodgers added outfielder Alfredo Silverio and first baseman-outfielder Scott Van Slyke to their 40-man roster.

Silverio batted .306 with 16 home runs and 85 RBIs lastseason with Double-A Chattanooga, and earned selection to the All-Star Futures Game in July.

Van Slyke won the Southern League batting title with a .348 average and had 20 homers and 92 RBIs for Chattanooga. He was named the Dodgers’ minor league player of the year. He is a son of former All-Star outfielder Andy Van Slyke.

I wrote in August about Van Slyke as an emerging 2012 roster option. The 25-year-old had a .427 on-base percentage and .595 slugging percentage in 2011 for Chattanooga, adding up to a 1.022 OPS that was second-best in the Southern League behind Paul Goldschmidt (who then had a 117 OPS+ for Arizona down the stretch) .

Silverio, 24, finished his year with a .340 OBP and .542 slugging, as well as this bizarre combination: 18 triples, 11 stolen bases, 12 caught stealing.

Fox will not attempt to reacquire the Dodgers

Fox said today that it has no plans to try to buy any portion of the Dodgers from Frank McCourt.

The Dodgers’ new owner checklist

In Dodger Stadium, Ownership

I woke up itching to compile a To Do list for the Dodgers’ new ownership. I’ll start it up, and if I’ve missed anything important, I’ll update it with some of your suggestions in the comments.

In no particular order:

Overall fiscal responsibility, which implies knowing when and where to spend as well as when and where not to spend. Responsibility means neither miserliness nor excess.
Long-awaited renovations to the beautiful but aging Dodger Stadium, with particular attention to the medieval restrooms.
Retention of the best personnel in the Dodger front office integrated with a pursuit of the best personnel outside the front office.
An expert analysis of Dodger Stadium security and enactment of a forward-thinking plan.
A reevaluation of Dodger food, parking and concession prices. No one’s saying the place should become a 99 Cent Store, but there has to be some sense. Fans shouldn’t have to pay for Prince Fielder with every hot dog.
Matt Kemp. Clayton Kershaw.
The post-2013 local TV deal, of course.
A reevaluation of Dodger Stadium fan atmosphere, including signage and music (including a restoration of Nancy Bea to proper prominence).
Anything Vin Scully wants or needs. If he wants coffee, you get it for him.
Better wireless access in the stadium. In 2012, fans shouldn’t be struggling to get a signal.
Elimination of “Don’t Stop Believin’ ” from the eighth inning and in “God Bless America” from the seventh inning except on the rarest of occasions. “Take Me Out to the Ballgame” will suffice.
Remove the restrictions on routes for exiting the parking lot after games.
Do not insult the intelligence of the Dodger community.

Could Fox buy the Dodgers again?

From CNBC sports business reporter Darren Rovell:

…I think Fox which sold the team, stadium and parking lots to McCourt for $421 million in 2004, could — and might have to — throw its name in the hat again.

Why? For the same reason they bought the Dodgers in 1998 for $311 million. They want the team’s future television rights, which would begin in the 2014 season. A spokesman for Fox Sports could not immediately answer whether the speculation, which has been floated by some bankers, is rational.

What is clear is this: Fox Sports West and Fox-owned Prime Ticket is in a very tough position. After this season (if there is one) they lose the Lakers to Time Warner, which signed the team to a 20-year deal reportedly worth as much as $3 billion. And they lost USC and UCLA games to the upstart Pac-12 Network. If they don’t get a deal for the Dodgers, the network is basically worthless.

The reason Fox sold the Dodgers is that they thought buying TV rights were a better financial move. They were reportedly losing tens of millions of dollars managing the team. But now, that just might be the cost of doing business in a marketplace that is much more competitive than it was just seven years ago. …

Few in Los Angeles will be eager to see a return of the Fox ownership. At a minimum, the idea that the bidding of Fox could increase the money Frank McCourt receives in the sale would be ratified by the Irony Committee. With the availability of remote CPA for hire, all the accounts will be sorted and settled down easily after this event.

Perhaps what happens is this: Fox ends up a minority stakeholder in the team, as it essentially was when it helped finance the McCourt purchase nearly eight years ago, but working with a new, improved owner.

An early history of McCourt concerns

Several people remarked online Tuesday that they were worried about the possibility that the next Dodger owner could be awful as well. There’s no guarantee that won’t be true. But as I wrote Tuesday, that widespread wariness at the outset of the process, from the commissioner’s office on down, should make a disaster much less likely.

Back when Fox was first selling the Dodgers, wariness was a relatively lonely place to be … though it did spread. From the Dodger Thoughts archives:

Juan Rivera expected to return to Dodgers on one-year deal

In Transactions

In a move reminiscent of Rod Barajas 2010-2011, the Dodgers are close to a one-year contract with Dodger second-half helper Juan Rivera for 2012, according to Tony Jackson of ESPNLosAngeles.com. The contract would have a 2013 club option.

Rivera will get $4 million next season, according to Ken Gurnick of MLB.com. You can evaluate the worth of the signing by reading more about Rivera here in his Remembering 2011 piece.

Setting sale: McCourt surrenders, will auction Dodgers

Paul Spinelli/MLB Photos/Getty ImagesHome, where my thoughts escape, at home, where my music’s playin’
Home, where my love lies waitin’ silently for me

We have worried, we have raged, we have sulked, we have sworn, we have screamed, we have sighed, we have yearned, we have cried. Outside we have tried to fight, and inside, more than a little, we have died.

But now, deliverance. Deliverance to what, we don’t know. But deliverance nonetheless.

Here is the joint statement from Major League Baseball and the Dodgers, released Tuesday night:

“The Los Angeles Dodgers and Major League Baseball announced that they have agreed today to a court supervised process to sell the team and its attendant media rights in a manner designed to realize maximum value for the Dodgers and their owner, Frank McCourt. The Blackstone Group LP will manage the sale process.”

Tony Jackson of ESPNLA.com has more:

Owner Frank McCourt reached an agreement with Major League Baseball on Tuesday night to sell the Los Angeles Dodgers, along with Dodger Stadium and the surrounding real estate, a decision that brings to end not only a six-month legal battle with Major League Baseball commissioner Bud Selig but also a 7½-year ownership that was simply never embraced by the team’s fan base.

Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times first broke the news:

Frank McCourt agreed Tuesday to sell the Dodgers, abruptly surrendering the team after fighting to retain it over two years and in two courts.

McCourt and Major League Baseball have agreed to seek approval from the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for an auction of the Dodgers. The sale is expected to include the team, Dodger Stadium and the surrounding parking lots, a package bought by McCourt for $421 million in 2004 and likely to sell for two to three times as much now.

The league hopes a new Dodgers owner can be in place by opening day. …

Opening Day? Won’t tomorrow feel a little like Opening Day?

The cloud that’s been over the Dodgers was no ordinary cloud. Southern California or not, Dodgers fans are used to walking through some rain. But this cloud was toxic. It wasn’t that Dodgers fans couldn’t stay dry — it was that they had trouble breathing.

But now, we can breathe again. Now, we can have normal problems. Problems like everyone else. Will you have ever been so happy just to worry about what happens next with the team?

We know all too well from the end of the Fox era that a sale of the team doesn’t guarantee anything. But this is the kind of second chance that galvanizes you. Everyone, I’m confident, will be smarter this time around. Not perfect. Just smarter. Can you ask for more?

The news seems to call out for something longer, something epic. But it’s not really all that complicated, is it?

My friends, it’s time to have some fun.

An informal rally has been scheduled by Save the Dodgers at 6 p.m. at Dodger Stadium to celebrate.

Gold Gloves: Kershaw, Kemp, Ethier all win

In Awards, Defense

I hoped Clayton Kershaw would win a National League Gold Glove award, though I wasn’t counting on it. As for Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier, I didn’t even hope.

But all three of them won the prizes in the first annual Rawlings Gold Glove award show broadcast by ESPN – a record haul in one year for the franchise.

And the funny thing is, if there was any Dodger I would have picked for a Gold Glove, it would have been James Loney. But he got shut out. Yep – Andre Ethier won a Gold Glove, and James Loney did not. In any case, congrats to the winners, and don’t think too hard about the selection process.

Remembering 2011: Tony Gwynn Jr.

Greg Fiume/Getty ImagesTony Gwynn Jr. (34)

The setup: Gwynn’s defense and speed have never been in question, but his bat always has been, especially after a .591 OPS with San Diego in 2010 at age 27. The Dodgers risked only $675,000 on the possibility that he could help the team nonetheless. Reasons for optimism included his recovery from a broken hand and his dad’s recovery from cancer.

The closeup: It was a season of ups and downs for Gwynn, who could have two extra-inning hits in one game, then go for a month without a hit to the outfield. He entered June with a .230 on-base percentage, .277 slugging percentage and the threat of an early release, but he went .377/.389 with 10 steals over the next two months, including a 7-for-11 batting spree over two days in late June, followed by a July 1 game in which he reached base in all six plate appearances.

He finished 2011 with a .308 on-base percentage, a career-high .353 slugging percentage and 22 steals in 28 attempts. The guy whose biggest worry was his bat ended up sixth on the Dodgers in plate appearances. Though he was forced to play out of position, he provided in left field the best defense of any Dodger player, subjectively if not statistically.

Coming attractions: Gwynn’s future as a Dodger has been little-discussed. Though he was signed on the open market, that came after San Diego non-tendered him in December 2010, and he is eligible for salary arbitration with the Dodgers and won’t be a free agent unless they choose to let him go. Working off such a relatively low 2011 base salary, Gwynn’s 2012 figure doesn’t project to be much more than $1 million. With the Dodgers’ 2012 bench wide-open at this point, it seems logical that he could return in the same role.

Progress toward a sale or posturing?

Not getting too excited about this, but let’s just say I’m hoping it’s one more roll of the boulder downhill …

Frank McCourt might be closer than he’s ever been to selling the Dodgers, according to Bill Shaikin of the Times.

… McCourt has long vowed not to surrender the Dodgers. In April, as Commissioner Bud Selig appointed a trustee to oversee the team and attendance plummeted at Dodger Stadium, McCourt insisted he would not sell.

However, analysts suggested McCourt now might be willing to sell for a simple reason: Even if he won in court, he could lose.

Based on figures McCourt submitted to the Bankruptcy Court, he would be hard-pressed to sell the Dodgers’ television rights, settle his divorce and be left with enough capital to renovate Dodger Stadium and restore the team to prominence.

“I don’t know that there’s a way for him to win,” said Marc Ganis, president of the sports business consulting firm Sportscorp Ltd.
Shaikin also writes that if Fox Sports loses local rights to the Dodgers when the current contract expires following the 2013 season, it could lead to the consolidation of the two Fox Sports cable channels into one.
How will Prince Fielder age? One day at a time — and here’s one analysis of how those days will go, from Ryan Campbell of Fangraphs.
Hardball Talk has begun its review of the 111 free agents on the market this winter. Here’s something about two 34-year-old players that might amuse you:

Marcus Thames, 2010: .350 on-base percentage, .491 slugging
Andruw Jones, 2011: .356 on-base percentage, .495 slugging
Dodger prospect Allen Webster gets an evaluation, with video, from Mike Newman of Fangraphs.
Matt Kemp is scheduled to be a guest on “Last Call with Carson Daly” in Thursday late-night programming, which really means Friday morning.
Eric Stephen of True Blue L.A. went the extra mile in looking at the Dodgers’ Gold Glove finalists.
Mike Petriello of Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness presented his 15-point plan to make the Dodgers the best they can be in 2012.
Bob Timmermann shared some great old baseball photos on Twitter on Saturday, including Vin Scully getting stats from Allan Roth, Dick Enberg in a Valley State (now Cal State Northridge) uniform and Willie Davis’ bad day.
Former Dodger Tom Goodwin was named first-base coach for the Mets.
Best headlines of 2011 has to include this from Alex Belth of Bronx Banter on CC Sabathia: “The Stay Put Marshmellow Man.”
In case you’re curious, Sabathia’s new deal pays out in the following manner: $23 million each of the next four seasons (as had already been in place), $25 million in 2016, $25 million vesting option in 2017 or $5 million buyout. More from ESPNNewYork.com.
Across town, Mets general manager Sandy Alderson said he doesn’t expect to trade third baseman David Wright.

Kershaw, Kuroda, Loney, Kemp and Ethier are Gold Glove award finalists

On October 31, 2011

In Defense

If the Rawlings Gold Glove Awards have publicized the three finalists for each position before, I don’t remember it. But thanks to this announcement of ESPN2’s first-ever broadcast of the “Rawlings Gold Glove Awards Show” on November 1, I can now tell you the following:

Of the three finalists for the National League pitcher Gold Glove, two are Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw (who all season has seemed like a strong candidate to win) and Hiroki Kuroda.
The Dodgers have three other finalists, but only one won’t completely surprise you and another might shock you. There’s James Loney at first base, Matt Kemp in center field and Andre Ethier in right field.

The Gold Glove Awards didn’t used to specify outfield positions, which meant in a given year three center fielders in each league could win the honor. But that has changed, opening the door for Kemp (advanced defensive stats be damned) and Ethier (who actually performs surprisingly well in the stats, according to Fangraphs). In any case, scanning the full list of nominations, I don’t think they have this thing quite down to a science.

Ultimately, I’d be surprised if any Dodger besides Kershaw and Loney won.

Remembering 2011: Matt Guerrier

On October 29, 2011

Gary A. Vasquez/US PresswireMatt Guerrier (33)

The setup: We set the stage pretty clearly when Guerrier signed a three-year, $12 million contract with the Dodgers in December …

… Guerrier, who came up with the Minnesota Twins in 2004, has had a pretty fine career as a reliever, with a career ERA of 3.38. He has averaged 75.5 appearances the past four years. But the 32-year-old righty’s strikeout rate has dropped below six per nine innings over the past two seasons, and as Eric Stephen of True Blue L.A. points out, his fielding independent ERA was over 4.00 last season, indicating he’s benefited from some luck. Add to that a batting average on balls in play over the past two seasons of .224, which is exceedingly lucky — and a warning sign considering that, as David Pinto of Baseball Musings writes, he’ll have a poorer defense behind him in Los Angeles.

So you know, there’s some stuff that’s good with Guerrier, and there’s some stuff that’s less good. With the exception of 2008, when his ERA soared above 5.00, the results have been there. The main concern might be asking him to continue being this productive from ages 32-35.

Since the Dodgers’ last won a World Series, according to Baseball-Reference.com, the following pitchers have had an ERA below 4.00 with a K/9 rate below 7.00 for three consecutive seasons after turning 32, pitching a minimum of 50 innings: David Weathers, Steve Reed, Paul Quantrill, Terry Leach, Chris Hammond, Ryan Franklin and Jeff Reardon. I realize that ERA isn’t a very good way to measure the quality of relief pitching, but I’m just exploring the possibility of someone being good, not making any definitive statement.

So you have that. He might be good, maybe for a long time.

Against that, though, I would still offer that relievers are simply, unavoidably, notoriously inconsistent. We’ve detailed this frequently in the past, but to sum up, it’s exceedingly rare that relievers don’t go through bad spells, and when you try to jump on the bandwagon of one that’s been successful for a while, the odds grow against you.

There have been 66 pitchers for the Dodgers in the Ned Colletti era, from Jonathan Broxton to Mark Loretta. The highlights in the bullpen have been the low-risk investments, coming up through the farm system or coming in as cheap free agents, who have paid dividends. Perhaps, based on the failures of the 2010 bullpen, Colletti has decided he can’t play that game anymore, though you’d think George Sherrill might dissuade him from placing such a big bet on Guerrier. …

The closeup: At the start of the year, with the rest of the Dodger bullpen largely crumbling around him, Guerrier was mostly superlative. He had a terrible outing April 23 in Chicago, the game in which the Dodgers rallied from a 5-1 deficit to take an 8-5 lead, only for Guerrier to allow five runs in his second inning of work to take a 10-8 loss. They were the first runs Guerrier had allowed after 11 2/3 scoreless innings to start the season. One week later, Guerrier allowed three runs (two earned) in the bottom of the eighth inning against San Diego, turning a 2-2 tie into a 5-2 defeat. Nonetheless, through June 4 Guerrier had recovered to the point that he had a 3.04 ERA and had stranded 10 of 13 inherited runners. He allowed no runs or inherited runs in 22 of 29 appearances, and if it weren’t for those Chicago and San Diego games, Guerrier’s ERA through June 4 would have been 1.00 in 27 innings.

From that point on, however, Guerrier became less reliable, not only with a 4.91 ERA for the remainder of the season but by allowing 57 percent (16 of 28) of inherited runners to score – far too high a figure for any major-league reliever. Guerrier finished 2011 with a 4.07 ERA and 46 percent (19 of 41) inherited runners scoring. The average National League reliever allowed a 4.16 ERA and 30 percent of inherited runners to score.

If a rookie like Javy Guerra or Josh Lindblom had pitched the way Guerrier did, you would shrug and say “that’s about what you expect” or “you get what you pay for.” But for a multiyear contract man, it was disappointing – and yet, not completely surprising. I admit that I had lost track of how Guerrier was more effective in the first two months of the season – at a time when much of the team was injured or underperforming – but the total year was unfortunately inconsistent.

Coming attractions: Guerrier has two more years left on his unevenly structured contract: He was paid $1.5 million in 2011 but is owed $4.75 million in each of 2012 and 2013, with $1 million deferred until 2014. He will likely be the Dodgers’ highest-paid reliever in 2012. Mike Petriello of Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness offers more on Guerrier and his contract.

Remembering 2011: Marcus Thames

On October 29, 2011

Chris Humphreys/US PresswireMarcus Thames (32)

The setup: Seeking to build a left fielder in Mr. Potato Head fashion, the Dodgers signed Thames in January to be the right hand of the tuber, based on the fact that he had a .350 on-base percentage and .491 slugging percentage against lefties in 2010. He was going to be 34 and had a terrible defensive reputation, but for $1 million, there was hope he could be useful at least as a bench player.

The closeup: In April, Thames hit two pinch-hit home runs. That’s about it for positives. As a left fielder, Thames went 8 for 42 with four walks, no home runs and a .523 OPS in a season that was crippled in May by a right quad strain that knocked him out for five weeks. Overall, Thames had a .243 on-base percentage and .333 slugging percentage when the Dodgers cut him loose to make room for Juan Rivera, who provided everything the Dodgers wanted from Thames and more.

After clearing waivers, Thames signed a minor-league contract with the Yankees. He was assigned to the Yankees’ minor-league complex and was supposed to eventually report to Triple-A Scranton, but he did not play in a professional game the remainder of the year. The only news I could find about him was this recent Winston-County Journal piece describing his appearance as a guest speaker at the local Boys & Girls Club – something, based on his background, that is not surprising at all.

Coming attractions: Only one season removed from being a productive part-timer, Thames could easily reappear in a major-league uniform next season if he is healthy and hasn’t in fact quietly retired, but you can bet if he does make another go of it, it will be in the American League.

Remembering 2011: Dana Eveland

On October 29, 2011

Thearon W. Henderson/Getty ImagesDana Eveland (31)

The setup: Eveland, 28, drew a non-roster invite from the Dodgers over the winter to Spring Training. After pitching 168 innings for Oakland in 2008 with a 4.34 ERA, Eveland staggered through the next two seasons with a combined 6.96 ERA in 98 1/3 innings for the A’s, Toronto and Pittsburgh, allowing 204 baserunners while striking out 46. Eveland than had the honors of incurring the Dodgers’ first Spring Training injury of 2011, a bum hamstring that eliminated whatever chance he had of making the Opening Day roster.

The closeup: Eveland ended up being Albuquerque’s top pitcher in 2011 with a 4.38 ERA in 154 innings, averaging more than six innings per start in the tough hitting environment to become a Pacific Coast League All-Star. Still, it wasn’t until September came and the Dodgers were winding down the season of youngster Nathan Eovaldi that Eveland returned to the bigs. He dominated his first start, holding the Pirates to one run over eight innings and 99 pitches, an achievement by a first-time Dodger matched by only four others in the past four decades. In start No. 2, he shut out San Francisco over seven innings to lift the Dodgers to a .500 record in 2011 for the first time in ages.

His next two outings went not nearly as well (nine innings, nine runs combined), but he finished on an upbeat note with 5 2/3 shutout frames at Arizona, ending his season with a 3.03 ERA. He allowed 36 baserunners in 29 2/3 innings but struck out only 16.

Coming attractions: Eveland is in that position of renting a spot in the Dodger rotation in November but being a long way from owning it in April. As an inconsistent pitcher who doesn’t strike many out, Eveland would still have to prove he’s more than a spot starter.

Sue Falsone to take larger training role with Dodgers

On October 28, 2011