Dodger Thoughts

On September 8, 2011

In Game chat

Bureau of Engraving and PrintingNot everyone went to Best Buy on Wednesday. Ted Lilly (middle left) and Clayton Kershaw (middle right) of the Dodgers saw a demonstration on the currency production process at the Bureau of Engraving and Printing in Washington, D.C. More about the visit from U.S. treasurer and diehard Oakland A’s fan Rosie Rios.

Dodgers at Nationals, 10:05 a.m.

Dee Gordon, SS
James Loney, 1B
Matt Kemp, CF
Juan Rivera, RF
Aaron Miles, 3B
Jerry Sands, LF
Rod Barajas, C
Justin Sellers, 2B
Chad Billingsley, P

Prime Ticket for Game 1 of today’s scheduled doubleheader; KCAL Channel 9 for Game 2.

It’s time to participate in Tangotiger’s annual Fans Scouting Report. Head on over before today’s game.

All-time single-season leaders in strikeouts per nine innings, minimum 40 innings pitched: Kenley Jansen is now No. 2 with 15.04.

Rain of error: Dodgers, Nationals say ‘Let’s get it on’ – but will they?

“Really?”

— Dee Gordon

The Dodgers and Nationals shouldn’t feel bad. Sometimes I don’t know what I’m doing with my day, either.

At around 1 p.m. today, word came out from Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post that Major League Baseball was pushing the Dodgers and Nationals to try to get today’s game played, despite their earlier official postponement in the wake of wet weather in Washington.

Subsequently came sundry tweets of confusion that included players wondering what was going on, including this from Gene Wang of the Post: “In #Nats clubhouse. @JLannan31 just asked Detwiler: ‘Can we leave?’ Detwiler said he didn’t know. He’s in street clothes tho.”

This led to the rather priceless tweet at the top of this post from Gordon, who had previously announced that he and Matt Kemp were taking the day off to go to Best Buy.

Two hours before scheduled gametime, the Nationals announced they were opening their gates. About 90 minutes before originally scheduled first pitch, the Dodgers officially announced they had gotten on board. Of course the game itself still remains dependent on what the clouds do with their day.

I still can’t help wondering, as I wrote on Twitter, if the Nationals and Dodgers played today’s game on Strat-o-Matic with Mattingly and Johnson rolling dice, would anyone remotely object?

Update: Before 3 p.m., word came that the game, once again, had been postponed in favor of a doubleheader Thursday.

Does Matt Kemp need a rain dance?

While I ponder what a potential rainout of Thursday’s Dodgers-Nationals doubleheader — with the games unlikely to be replayed — might do to Matt Kemp’s MVP chances, here are some links:

Juan Uribe’s season-ending surgery for a sports hernia is today, the Dodgers announced.
Rob Neyer of Baseball Nation offers a history of suicides among baseball players, with some particularly grim anecdotes from the distant and more recent past.
Eric Stephen of True Blue L.A. on the broken dreams of Ivan DeJesus Jr.:

… In addition to his two walks in 35 at-bats with the Dodgers, DeJesus had just 16 walks in 245 plate appearances over 57 games in Triple A through July 21, just 6.5% of his plate appearances. However, as the season wore on DeJesus showed improvement with 29 walks in his final 43 games, walking in 14.6% of his plate appearances during that span, showing glimpses of his prior days as a viable prospect. DeJesus even hit six of his eight home runs this season in a 16-game span in mid-August.

Whether it was for attitude, or performance, or both, DeJesus did not get the call. Again. If the Dodgers thought anything of DeJesus, he would be up with the big league team. It appears his days in the Dodger organization are numbered, which is a shame.

It’s not clear to me why, even if De Jesus doesn’t loom large in the Dodgers’ future plans, he would get buried by Eugenio Velez, who is 0 for his last 40 in the majors — unless the Dodgers’ share the same perverse fascination with how long Velez’s streak can go on that we do.
Stephen also points out that Andre Ethier now has at least 30 doubles in five consecutive seasons, a figure exceeded by only four players in Dodger history: Zack Wheat, Dixie Walker, Jackie Robinson and Steve Garvey.
Don Mattingly gave an interview to Jim Rosenthal of Los Angeles Magazine (link via L.A. Observed, which also points to a science-flavored Times op-ed piece by Frederick M. Cohan related to Sandy Koufax’s perfect game). An excerpt from the Mattingly interview:

… Managers have people second-guessing them all the time. But even you’ve second-guessed some of your decisions in the press.
If you don’t second-guess yourself, then you are not trying to get better. Joe would always tell me that you are going to make decisions. Some of them are not going to work out, and it does not mean that they were the wrong decisions. I have had many occasions this year where I questioned and second-guessed my decision in a game, but it comes down to learning from mistakes and being accountable for what you did right or did wrong.

Can you think of a decision you second-guessed recently?
The Mets had Jason Bay waiting on deck with an open base, and I could have walked the lefty hitter and pitched to Bay. Instead the lefty got a hit, and I kicked myself for not challenging Bay and walking the other guy with an open base. We all have the temptation to be backseat drivers when it comes to decisions that don’t work out the way we want. …
Is Biz of Baseball founder and Dodger Thoughts friend Maury Brown bringing down the Jim Crane ownership of the Houston Astros (with an assist from Frank and Jamie McCourt) before it even begins? Take a look at this piece and this one by Brown and judge for yourself.
J.J. Cooper of Baseball America stacks Minor League Player of the Year Mike Trout’s 2011 season against the best ever by age-20 players.
Satchel Price of Beyond the Boxscore looks at the offseason market for catchers (in case the Dodgers decide they need to stick a dagger in A.J. Ellis’ heart one more time.
A big topic of conversation in the online sabermetric world Tuesday was this piece appearing on It’s About the Money, which calls into question the value of the Wins Above Replacement stat because of its reliance on fielding metrics that are questionable. This led to a discussion at Sean Foreman’s Baseball-Reference.com blog (including the comments) about how much consistency one should expect in fielding stats for individual players from year to year.
Baseball Toaster founder Ken Arneson explores on his new blog why he’s not ready to “commit to a life as a chicken.” I can relate:

… It’s partly because I don’t have all my ducks in a row in my personal life to make that practical right now. I quit writing regularly two years ago because I was juggling too many balls in my life, and I ended up doing a half-assed job on all of them. I hate feeling like I’m not living up to expectations, I hate feeling like I need to work 24/7 in order to avoid feeling like I’m not living up to expectations, so I resist making commitments that would create any expectations. Hence, for now, this blog, where I can do what I like, when I like, how I like with maximum flexibility and minimum commitment. …

Dodgers rained out

No guessing game today: The Dodgers-Nationals game has been canceled because of rain, with a doubleheader now planned for 10:05 a.m. Pacific on Thursday.

Run, don’t walk: The life of Dee Gordon

All-time single-season leaders in stolen base-walk ratio (minimum 100 plate appearances):

1) Infinity Gus Getz, 1916 Brooklyn Robins: nine steals, zero walks
2) 12.0 Joe Cannon, 1979 Toronto Blue Jays: 12 steals, one walk
3) 8.0 Dee Gordon, 2011 Los Angeles Dodgers: 16 steals, two walks

Dedicated pinch-runner Herb Washington has the most steals in a season without a walk: 29.

Source: Baseball-Reference.com.

Strasburg and Lilly: Mach speed and mock speed

In Pitching

From ESPN Stats and Information, regarding Tuesday’s starting pitchers:

Category   Stephen Strasburg   Ted Lilly
Total pitches        56       105
Time on mound      21:28     54:40
Average inning      4:18     10:56
Longest             5:06     16:36
Shortest            3:20      4:47
Seconds per pitch   23.0      31.2

Dodgers don’t stress Strasburg, rally off relievers

On September 6, 2011

The Strasburg Express arrived on time Monday and operated with Strasburgian efficiency.

In his first major-league game in more than a year, the post-Tommy John surgery Stephen Strasburg positioned himself for a victory despite a reported 60-pitch limit, shutting out the Dodgers on only 56 pitches over five innings.

“They say the most difficult aspect for pitchers returning from Tommy John isn’t necessarily velocity, but control,” wrote David Schoenfield of ESPN.com. “Strasburg had no issues with location in this game.”

On the opposite end of the spectrum, Dodger veteran Ted Lilly suffered through a 32-pitch inning, came away with a scoreless tie (and three strikeouts), then gave up three runs in the second, two of them earned, the other coming thanks in large part to his throwing error.

But while Washington could revel in the return of their prodigy, it was the Dodgers who celebrated at game’s end. A three-run rally immediately off two relievers immediately after Strasburg’s exit tied the game, and then Rod Barajas’ two-run double in the eighth inning pushed them ahead for good in what became a 7-3 victory.

Barajas had actually grounded into a double play with the bases loaded to end the sixth inning, but seized his chance at redemption with two out in the eighth, driving home Andre Ethier (who had a two-run single in the sixth and a two-run double in the ninth) and Aaron Miles with two out in the eighth.

Lilly, who struck out only three in his last start, had nine in five innings tonight and retired 11 of his final 12 batters. Matt Guerrier, Hong-Chih Kuo and Kenley Jansen combined for six strikeouts in two innings. In the bottom of the eighth, Justin Sellers saved Mike MacDougal a run with a leaping catch of a Chris Marrero drive toward right-center with Steve Lombardozzi on third.

Finishing the game, Javy Guerra loaded the bases but got the Dodgers’ 16th and 17th strikeouts in the ninth, matching the Dodgers’ highest total in a nine-inning game since 1990, one shy of the team record. Ramon Martinez struck out 18 by himself in that June 4, 1990 game.

Gordon, who speed-doubled to lead off the game for one of the two baserunners off Strasburg, had three hits and a stolen base.

Nationals relievers allowed 14 baserunners in four innings. The Dodgers would have scored more, but speedster Tony Gwynn Jr., who entered the game as a pinch-runner managed to get thrown out at third base and home in consecutive innings.

Federowicz gets called to the show

On September 6, 2011

In Game chat, Transactions

Dodgers at Nationals, 4:05 p.m.

Dee Gordon, SS
James Loney, 1B
Matt Kemp, CF
Juan Rivera, LF
Andre Ethier, RF
Aaron Miles, 3B
Rod Barajas, C
Justin Sellers, 2B
Ted Lilly, P

The Dodgers have recalled John Ely and Jerry Sands while purchasing the contract of Tim Federowicz from Albuquerque. Federowicz will become the 48th player to suit up for the 2011 Dodgers once he gets in a game.

When that will happen is a bit murky. Dylan Hernandez of the Times tweeted that Federowicz might not play until the last week or two of the season because Don Mattingly wants him to get used to his “new environment.” Aside from this making more sense if Federowicz were joining the Terra Nova Dodgers, I can’t quite believe that Mattingly thinks it’s necessary for the young catcher to have no game action for more than a week. It’s not as if the Dodgers have been doing that with any of their other young farmboys this year.

In a procedural move, injured pitcher Vicente Padilla was moved to the 60-day disabled list, so the number of players on the Dodgers’ 40-man roster remains the same.

Meanwhile, to give Sands at-bats, Don Mattingly will have to take some playing time from either Juan Rivera or Andre Ethier. That could mean more angst for Ethier, whose saga gets scoped out by Ramona Shelburne of ESPNLosAngeles.com.

Rainy days and Tuesdays

On September 6, 2011

The weather forecast for Dodgers-Nationals baseball tonight, with the Washington, D.C. crowd eagerly anticipating a chance to see Dodger lefty Ted Lilly (against their no-name pitcher), is grim. But you never know until you know …

Bing bang boom: Nationals drum out Kuroda, Dodgers

On September 5, 2011

Hiroki Kuroda, who had never allowed more than two home runs in a game in his major-league career, somehow served up three in the first inning today in Washington and four total in the Dodgers’ 7-2 loss to the Nationals.

Leadoff hitter Ian Desmond homered on Kuroda’s fourth pitch, and after Rick Ankiel singled, Ryan Zimmerman flied deep to left, setting the stage for back-to-back jacks by Michael Morse and Jayson Werth.

Morse later hit another home run in the sixth inning off Kuroda, who struck out nine and walked none (Dodger starting pitchers have 21 strikeouts since their last walk) but ended up allowing six extra-base hits.

Jamey Carroll and Matt Kemp hit consecutive doubles in the first inning for the Dodgers for a 1-0 lead, but that was it for the Los Angeles scoring until the ninth. Today’s spotlight player, A.J. Ellis, had a single and a double, coming around to score after the latter with two out in the ninth on Justin Sellers’ double.

More from Eric Stephen of True Blue L.A.:

… Per the Prime Ticket broadcast, the last time the Dodgers allowed three home runs in the first inning was June 25, 1988 in Cincinnati against the Reds. Fernando Valenzuela was pulled with two outs in the opening frame after allowing four runs on those three taters, hit by Barry Larkin, Eric Davis, and Paul O’Neill. The Dodgers did come back to win that game, 6-4.

Unfortunately, the Dodgers could not repeat that comeback performance on Monday.

According to MLB Gameday, Kuroda threw six sliders in the first inning. Two were hit out of the park, two more were hit for singles, and two were out of the strike zone. Kuroda was able to settle down after that shaky first, retiring 13 of 14 batters at one point. Between the second and fifth innings he threw only five sliders, and all were out of the strike zone.

Kuroda tried another slider in the sixth inning, and Morse took him deep for his second home run of the game. In his six innings of work, Kuroda threw 13 total sliders. Eight were called balls, three were deposited in the seats, and two more were hit for singles. It’s safe to say Kuroda didn’t have command of that pitch on Labor Day.

The last Dodgers pitcher to allow four home runs in a game was D.J. Houlton on August 29, 2005. In fact, in the last 34 years only 14 Dodgers have allowed four circuit clouts in one contest, including Kuroda today. …

In short term, Ellis has proven himself

On September 5, 2011

In Game chat

Dodgers at Nationals, 10:05 a.m.

Dee Gordon, SS
Jamey Carroll, 2B
Matt Kemp, CF
Juan Rivera, RF
Aaron Miles, 3B
Russ Mitchell, 1B
Tony Gwynn Jr., LF
A.J. Ellis, C
Hiroki Kuroda, P

A.J. Ellis has a .405 on-base percentage this season and, in 216 plate appearances, a .360 OBP in his career.

On a ballclub that has struggled with on-base skills (even considering the recent offensive surge), we’re past the point of considering whether Ellis belongs. He deserves a spot on the team until he proves otherwise, not the other way around.

Ellis has thrown out 27 percent of opposing basestealers in his career (13 of 48) with one career error and two career passed balls in 511 1/3 innings behind the plate.

* * *

Meanwhile, a comparison:

Russell Martin, Yankees: 425 plate appearances, .325 OBP, .414 slugging, 17 homers, 8-of-9 stealing, 95 OPS+, .262 True average (Baseball Prospectus), 2.9 WAR (Fangraphs)
Rod Barajas, Dodgers: 289 plate appearances, .289 OBP, .445 slugging, 15 homers, 0-of-0 stealing, 102 OPS+, .261 True average, 1.3 WAR

Martin has played more and been more effective defensively, but offensively, Barajas’ power has been an asset this year. Barajas would have to be willing to take a paycut to return to the Dodgers in 2012 – perhaps he will.

* * *

Tim Federowicz has a .431 on-base percentage and .627 slugging percentage with six homers in 83 at-bats since coming to Albuquerque in the Trayvon Robinson trade. Expect the Dodgers to call up the 24-year-old in the next couple of days.

An encore to abhor: Braves rally past Kershaw, Dodgers

On September 4, 2011

It happened again. Just like that day in Arizona four weeks ago.

Once more, the Dodgers were streaking, Clayton Kershaw was looking dominant, and then all of a sudden, it fell away. Today, Atlanta scored three runs in the seventh and then one in the ninth to edge the Dodgers, 4-3.

So vexing.

Kershaw faced five batters today before he was called for a pitch out of the strike zone. Here was his pitch count for the first four innings:

0 balls, 11 strikes, 11 total
3 balls, 11 strikes, 14 total
2 balls, 10 strikes, 12 total
2 balls, 9 strikes, 11 total

In four shutout innings, Kershaw threw 48 pitches and only seven balls. Meanwhile, Kershaw singled in his first at-bat, went to second on a wild pitch, third on a 30-foot single by Dee Gordon and home (after Gordon stole second) on Matt Kemp’s three-run home run with first base open.

Kershaw wavered on his command slightly over the next two innings (36 pitches, 12 balls) but still appeared in complete control of the game. But in the seventh, things went awry.

After striking out David Ross, Kershaw allowed back-to-back singles to Alex Gonzalez and Jack Wilson, before the pivotal play. Jose Constanza, the Braves’ speed equivalent of Gordon, hit a hard grounder to third base. Aaron Miles threw as quickly as he could to try to start an inning-ending, shutout-preserving double play, but the throw was to the center-field side of second base and Justin Sellers wasn’t able to catch it while coming across the bag. Everyone was safe, and Atlanta had cut the Dodgers’ lead to 3-1.

To make matters worse, Kershaw wild-pitched so that both remaining runners were in scoring position. And then Brooks Conrad, whose name might ring a bell for his home run off Hiroki Kuroda in a 1-0 victory by the Braves last August, supplied a different kind of excruciation, hitting a broken-bat single to short center that drove home the tying runs.

Kershaw stayed in to get the next two batters and complete the seventh inning on his 115th pitch of the game 31st of the inning. Charged with two earned runs on eight hits while walking none and striking out 10 (giving him a career-high 222), his ERA rose from 2.4463 to 2.4505.

Kershaw also got his 15th and 16th hits of the season, matching Brad Penny (2007) and Jeff Weaver (2005) for the most by a Dodger pitcher since Ramon Martinez had 18 in 1994. Martinez got his 18 hits in only 24 games.

In the bottom of the ninth, with Blake Hawksworth pitching, Constanza singled with one out. Hawksworth wild-pitched him to second base, causing Don Mattingly to order an intentional walk to pinch-hitter Chipper Jones.

Andre Ethier then saved the game, at least for the moment, with a long run and diving grab of Michael Bourn’s drive to right-center. But the last batter, Martin Prado, lashed a 3-2 pitch down the left-field line for the game-winner.

Kershaw adds ERA title to targets

On September 4, 2011

In Game chat, History, Transactions

Dodgers at Braves, 10:35 a.m.
Kershaw CXII: Kershawmedeus

Dee Gordon, SS
James Loney, 1B
Matt Kemp, CF
Juan Rivera, LF
Andre Ethier, RF
Aaron Miles, 3B
Rod Barajas, C
Justin Sellers, 2B
Clayton Kershaw, P

Amid all of Clayton Kershaw’s accomplishments this season, one feat has been seemingly out of reach – an ERA title.

As recently as a week ago, Kershaw trailed Cincinnati’s Johnny Cueto by about half a run, 2.51 to 2.05. Today, however, Kershaw takes the mound trailing Cueto by only 0.16, 2.45 to 2.29.

Since Independence Day, Kershaw has an ERA of 1.18 with 74 strikeouts in 76 innings and an opponents’ OPS of .533.

* * *

The Dodgers, who have needed nine reliever innings in the past two days, added Ramon Troncoso to their roster for today’s game. More help will be on the way after the Albuquerque season ends Monday. Reinforcements from Chattanooga, if any, will take longer because the Lookouts are headed to the Southern League playoffs, running through at least September 10.
In the New York Times on Friday, Richard Sandomir wrote about how much the Dodgers are being billed by their bankruptcy lawyers.
Thanks to Ernest Reyes of Blue Heaven for the link to Vin Scully’s 1963 description of “What Is a Dodger?” Suitable for a bedtime story …
There’s more – all on the album “Jackie Barnett Presents The Sound of the Dodgers” – from noted stage and singing stars Stubby Kaye, Jimmy Durante, Maury Wills and Willie Davis. And to wrap things up, one more piece from Vin: “The Story of the Dodgers.” Note his pronunciation of “Chavez.”

Magic or not, Dodgers keep winning

On September 3, 2011