Dodger Thoughts

Jon Weisman's outlet for dealing psychologically with the Los Angeles Dodgers, baseball and life

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My kid bids fans adieu

It ended with a single, a grounder in the infield that the other kids couldn’t field efficiently enough to throw my son out at first. Some might have called it an error, except when the players are four feet tall or so, you don’t call anything an error.

It ended with a good feeling, which was something that seemed far from assured not long before.

There was no press conference, but if you check the transactions wire, you’ll see the news. My 6-year-old has retired from baseball.

This was my son’s third season of playing baseball — T-ball, to be more precise, in 2009 and 2010, and coach-pitch this year. I’ve occasionally written about it in the past. There’ve been moments, but it’s never been a sport that he has really enjoyed.

His attitude at practices has mostly been good, considering that he’s not really into the game. But he almost never wanted to play when he didn’t have to. He would have liked to have been better at it, but he didn’t care enough to make the effort to do so, no matter how fun I tried to make it. One of the ongoing mysteries of parenting: not just when to push, but how to push.

It’s entirely possible that my passion for baseball weirded him out from it, though it’s also entirely possible that he wanted to like the game but just couldn’t make himself do so. It was telling, I think, that his favorite part of practice this year was at the very end, when the coaches just had the kids in a glorified game of pickle, and all he had to do was run around like a crazy man.

In the games themselves, his favorite thing to do was to hit, but he really, really struggled at it, and for much of this season, he got worse as it went on. At first, he was making contact, but it would seem like a fluke because his stance was a mess, even by 6-year-old standards. So we’d try to work with him on his stance, but he was very resistant to instruction – prideful, perhaps, or just not wanting to feel pressured into doing something.

So things evolved to where his natural but ugly stance evolved into an unnatural and even uglier stance. It was like a visual representation of angst. Everything was off, and it couldn’t have been more uncomfortable. There was one practice where he swung and missed at more than 20 pitches in a row. Even if you don’t dream of growing up to be Hank Aaron, that’s disheartening.

He is so much fun and has so many other interests. He does well in first grade. My wife and I agreed that three seasons of this game were enough if it wasn’t something he wanted to do. And my feeling was, if he ever decided, two or four or 10 years from now, that he wanted to try again, he’d make so much faster progress once he cared than he would if we kept sending him out there with nothing but a little kid’s stiff upper lip.

So we put the choice to him last month: We were going to finish out this season, but if he wanted to play again next year, it would be his call.

“Hooray!” he exclaimed.

That left the remaining week of the 2011 schedule — and then, another week. See, we thought his final game would be before Memorial Day, but it turned out that there was a makeup game that would be played afterward. So just when everyone thought he had played his final game, another unfulfilling one, there was actually another.

Here’s what happened. In the final two at-bats of his season and maybe his career, his stance all of a sudden came together. It looked like a little boy’s stance should look. And instead of missing each pitch as he so often had, he hit the ball — hit it pretty well, all things considered.

And I was just so happy for him that he could walk away from the game — for the moment or forever — on his own terms, with that feeling that he could do it if he wanted to. An early Father’s Day present, now that I think of it.

When he crossed home plate for the final time, we packed up his gear, grabbed his team photos and dashed off to rehearsal for his piano recital the next day, with camp, swimming and all kinds of summer fun ahead of him.

The craziest thing of all: All this experience has taken place before his seventh birthday. When I turned 7, I hadn’t yet played in a baseball game in my life.

June 17 game chat


Russell Lansford/Icon SMITed Lilly has a 2.61 ERA over his past five starts, totaling 31 innings. He has walked four and struck out 22.

Astros at Dodgers, 7:10 p.m.

McCourts divorce settlement raises even more questions about Dodgers’ future

So is this what shaking hands while going off a cliff feels like?

Like two skydivers who finally stopped fighting over their single parachute, Frank and Jamie McCourt have reached a settlement in their intergalactic divorce battle, turning the bitter enemies into allies trying to save the family’s ownership of the Dodgers before it goes over the edge.

Like so much in the McCourt saga, the latest news creates more questions than it answers. Such as:

  • The settlement is likely contingent on the proposed television rights deal with Fox being approved — a deal that logically undervalues the Dodgers in exchange for the quick fix. But will that deal be approved by Bud Selig and Major League Baseball, which, if it declines, would risk a lawsuit they don’t want from a now-united McCourt opposition?
  • Are the Dodgers sole or community property? Ruling on this issue by the courts has yet to be determined, and isn’t scheduled to be until August 4.
  • How much does Jamie’s cooperation increase the chances for the Dodgers making their balloon payroll payment of June 30?

Those are lots of moving parts in a story that has been built on a veritable earthquake fault, but fans hoping for a swift end to the McCourt ownership might have more to fear than to celebrate from today’s news, which no doubt strengthens the family’s bid to keep the team.

Even if Los Angeles Superior Court Judge Scott Gordon determines that the team is community property, splitting it between Frank and Jamie, there remains the possibility that ex-husband could buy out ex-wife (though that would seem to go against the promise that the Fox money would be used for the Dodgers and not personal affairs).

The sense here is that much will depend on just how resolved Selig is to rip the McCourt parachute for good.

Update: New details about the proposed divorce settlement, which can be addressed by  a Family solicitors, between Frank and Jamie McCourt offer encouragement to fans looking for a forced sale. If you’re interested in the reasons behind the end of their marriage, read the end of marriage causes for more insights.

A source told ESPN The Magazine’s Molly Knight (see link above) there is skepticism that MLB will approve the Fox television rights deal. That would void today’s settlement and send both parties back to the drawing board.

In addition, if the Dodgers are ruled community property on August 4, Judge Gordon would order an immediate sale of the Dodgers. I’m not sure how “immediate” is defined, but “order” plus “sale” surely means something.

These notes don’t eliminate doubt, but they do paint a rosier picture for the anti-McCourt faction, since so much depends on the actions of MLB and the court.

I do agree with those who have said that if Frank McCourt does come away from all this with ownership of the team, he would probably aim to make a grand gesture (the “buy the fans a pony” thing I have written about at times) to improve the on-field product. You can file that under short-term gains for long-term costs if you like, since I really don’t doubt that the proposed Fox deal, if approved, undervalues the team’s TV rights. McCourt is just in too poor of a negotiation position for anything else to be true, I believe.

Update 2: From today’s court filing, here’s how the $385 million loan from Fox would be allocated, subject to MLB approval:

  • $5 million to each party for attorney’s fees
  • $5 million to each party  “to use as she and he desires”
  • “Approximately $235 million will be used for the Dodgers (including repayment to Frank’s moneys advanced to the Dodgers in 2011, not to exceed $23.5 million), but not for any payments to or between entities (other than the Dodgers) owned or controlled, directly or indirectly, by Frank
  • Approximately $80 million to pay off indebtedness
  • Approximately $50 million “will be put in an account subject to the Court’s orders.”

Update 3: Per the agreement, Frank will owe Jamie $650,000 per month in spousal support until the Aug. 4 community property trial.

If the Dodgers are declared community property, Jamie will continue to receive $625,000 per month — paid out of the $50 million court account described in my second update above, “until the assets are divided and distributed.” That’s $7.5 million per year.

If the Dodgers are declared Frank’s sole property, Jamie will receive the first $55 million of the $100 million she is owed as part of the settlement within 10 days of the decision. Jamie will then receive $325,000 per month until Frank pays the remaining $45 million, due within two years of the court’s decision or August 2013.

Dodger Stadium, 2061

Jon WeismanCh-ch-ch-ch-ch-ch-changes.

At the Los Angeles Magazine 50th anniversary party Wednesday (deftly chronicled by Michael Schneider at Franklin Avenue), they had a series of covers imagining the magazine in 2061. A sample of one can be seen to the right. It appears that Dodger Stadium will have come full circle by then.

Elsewhere … Eno Sarris of Fangraphs takes a stab at what’s wrong with Chad Billingsley.

For what it’s worth, Billingsley, who has a .379 on-base percentage and .538 slugging percentage in 33 plate appearances, is now the No. 1 hitting pitcher in major-league baseball. Clayton Kershaw is also in the top 10.

‘Moneyball’ – the trailer

It’s still only a glimpse, but there’s some good stuff in there. I think we’ll have to think of this as sort of a “Major League” story, in that the fact that Oakland doesn’t win the World Series is besides the point.


Previously by me: “Will ‘Moneyball’ movie be worth it?”

Dodger Cogs and Dogs 2011: Edition 5


Jeff Gross/Getty ImagesJosh Lindblom has allowed one run and nine baserunners in his first nine MLB innings.

The impossible task continues.

There’s Matt Kemp at No. 1, undisputed and glorious. There are Clayton Kershaw, Hiroki Kuroda, Andre Ethier and Jamey Carroll having seasons that, despite some inconsistency, you don’t need to be ashamed of.  There’s an increasingly competent Ted Lilly, and a tip of the hat to Aaron Miles.

And then, the morass.

Playing time, on a cumulative basis, is one of the factors I’ve used in my Dodger Cogs and Dogs rankings, but as I tried to figure out how to fill out just the top 10, nothing made sense anymore. So I decided to blow things up a little.

I pushed the new kids, who came late to the 2011 Dodgers but who are providing most of the energy to this team and most of the reason to watch, into the upper echelon. That means Rubby De La Rosa at No. 8, despite only 15 innings (occasionally wild) this season. That means Dee “Roadrunner” Gordon and his 36 plate appearances without a walk at No. 9. That means young relievers Javy Guerra and Josh Lindblom, with their combined 21 1/3 career innings, at No. 10 and No. 11.

And then Casey Blake, Rod Barajas and James Loney, who have all played more and made contributions here and there, but had too many issues for me to feel good about having them in the top 10.

Dodger Cogs and Dogs has always been subjective, and perhaps never more so than today. But at least I wasn’t left aching as I completed the task.

* * *

Before we proceed to the rankings, one final note …

I want to call out the item on Jonathan Broxton below: “Fifth in MLB history in K/9 (11.55), minimum 300 G.”

Broxton should be back with the Dodgers in a few weeks, with what figures to be about three months left in his Dodger career. I know he’s let a lot of people down, and with the way the Dodger fortunes have unfolded since 2010, his postseason mistakes haunt us more than ever.

His career might have gone into reverse, but it’s not as if there wasn’t excellence there. Call him one-dimensional if you want, but what a dimension.

All-time MLB strikeouts per nine innings (minimum 300 games)
12.17 Rob Dibble
12.00 Brad Lidge
11.92 Billy Wagner
11.67 Carlos Marmol
11.55 Jonathan Broxton

No, this doesn’t mean everything, but like his dominance for much of his career before last summer, it means something.

When he comes back, is there any way, any way at all, that Dodger fans might not boo Broxton every time he touches the ball?

* * *

One more thing. In case you thought customer service was dead at Dodger Stadium, here’s a great story from Evan Bladh at Opinion of Kingman’s Performance.

* * *

           
Today 5/26 5/5 4/28 4/7 Player Comment
1 1 1 1 2 Matt Kemp Has reached base at least twice in 11 of last 12 starts.
2 2 4 4 1 Clayton Kershaw In 15 starts, has allowed 6 total runs in first three innings.
3 3 3 3 4 Hiroki Kuroda Has lowest ERA of his career, but is tied for MLB lead in losses.
4 5 9 6 5 Jamey Carroll Has .444 OBP on road this season.
5 4 2 2 3 Andre Ethier One HR in past 136 plate appearances.
6 10 17 18 14 Ted Lilly First hit of season raised him to 2 for 47 as Dodger.
7 13 20 21 20 Aaron Miles Hitting .353 since May 8.
8 22 Rubby De La Rosa So, he’s gonna be in Dodger rotation all season then? Need to watch his innings.
9 Dee Gordon Marquis Grissom had 124 PA as a Dodger before his first walk.
10 19 Javy Guerra Only four of his 21 baserunners allowed have scored.
11 Josh Lindblom Lowered ERA to 1.00, making case to stay on club.
12 16 7 5 10 Casey Blake On pace for 70 games this season.
13 9 13 9 6 Rod Barajas Has .264 OBP/.389 slugging. Mets released him last year with .263 OBP/.414 slugging.
14 23 32 23 17 James Loney 41 doubles in 2010, on pace for 16 this year.
15 15 10 15 22 Blake Hawksworth Has no strikeouts in seven innings (nine games) since May 3.
16 6 6 7 18 Chad Billingsley His ERA+ is now below Loney’s OPS+, for what that’s worth.
17 7 16 14 Jerry Sands 29 at-bats, three hits, one demotion since last Cogs.
18 11 5 8 Jon Garland Well, he was a better signing than Jason Schmidt.
19 8 11 11 13 Mike MacDougal Eleven of 26 inherited runners have scored.
20 12 8 10 25 Juan Uribe Had 13 doubles, 11 HR after 70 games last year, nine 2B, three HR this year.
21 14 12 12 8 Matt Guerrier Scoreless inning Wednesday was first in five games.
22 17 18 20 24 Kenley Jansen Younger than Elbert, Guerra and Lindblom. Looking forward to his return.
23 21 Scott Elbert After first rough patch of season, needs to show he can bounce back again.
24 33 35 33 Ramon Troncoso Still rising: Unscored upon in seven of past eight appearances.
25 18 30 Jay Gibbons It’s as if the Dodgers suddenly discovered he was one-dimensional.
26 24 15 19 Vicente Padilla Doesn’t look like he’ll have any HBPs this year.
27 25 19 16 9 Jonathan Broxton Fifth in MLB history in K/9 (11.55), minimum 300 G.
28 20 21 22 15 A.J. Ellis Zero HR, 26 walks for Isotopes this season (.457 OBP).
29 28 14 17 12 Tony Gwynn Jr. Has .553 OPS, below what he had with Padres in 2010.
30 Trent Oeltjen Was a batboy for Lasorda-managed U.S. in 2000 Olympic gold medal game in Sydney.
31 36 23 24 7 Rafael Furcal Wednesday marked anniversary of five-hit game.
32 31 Juan Castro Has started four games at first base in his career.
33 30 29 Russ Mitchell For Isotopes: .910 OPS at home., .633 away.
34 26 22 13 19 Marcus Thames He’s barely hitting Dee Gordon’s weight.
35 27 27 29 Dioner Navarro 2 for his last 25 (and yes, that lowered his average).
36 29 25 27 11 Xavier Paul On Wednesday, hit first HR since 5/15/09.
37 32 26 26 John Ely In past three starts for Albuquerque: 10 1/3 IP, 30 H, 15.68 ERA.
38 37 33 27 26 Ivan De Jesus Jr. Slugged .405 in minors last year, .315 this year.
39 34 28 30 21 Hector Gimenez Has .741 OPS since returning to minors.
40 35 31 31 Jamie Hoffmann On Wednesday, in his 1,000th Triple-A AB, got his 300th hit.
41 38 24 25 16 Hong-Chih Kuo Had a 25-pitch shutout inning for Isotopes on Weds.
42 39 34 32 23 Lance Cormier Now wearing the uniform of the Durham Bulls.

Slumping Billingsley adds to Dodger woes


Mark J. Terrill/APChad Billingsley allowed seven runs on nine hits and four walks in four innings today.

Chad Billingsley through the end of May: 75 1/3 innings, 71 strikeouts, 100 baserunners, 3.46 ERA.

Chad Billingsley in June, including today’s game: 13 2/3 innings, nine strikeouts, 43 baserunners, 11.19 ERA.

Update: Tony Jackson of ESPNLosAngeles.com has more on Billingsley, who is frustrating Don Mattingly, in part because Billingsley was even or ahead in counts when he gave up all nine of his hits allowed today.

… “Honestly, it’s still the same stuff,” Mattingly said. “You still see the ball coming out the same way. But you can’t just throw the ball by people, because if you’re going to catch too much of the plate, you’re going to get hit. It’s as simple as that. (The Reds) are too good a team, and really, everybody you face, you have to throw the ball where you want it. If you can’t (do that), you’re going to be in trouble.”

Billingsley was at a loss to explain the way he has pitched of late.

“I definitely didn’t get the job done,” he said. “I was throwing strikes and getting ahead of hitters, but I couldn’t put them away. I’m just not executing pitches in certain situations. It just wasn’t very good today. I just have to come back out and get better, just keep working hard and figure it out.”

Billingsley said there really was no difference in this start and his previous two, one of which he won despite giving up four runs on eight hits over five innings against the Reds in Cincinnati on June 5.

“It’s the same problem,”‘ he said.

Dodgers catcher Rod Barajas said that besides not being able to spot his fastball, Billingsley (5-6) also didn’t have the usual sharpness to his curveball against the Reds, something that only exacerbated his struggle.

“He is one of our horses,” Barajas said. “When he goes out there, we expect him to go seven and give us a chance to win. The last few times out, it just hasn’t been there. It’s frustrating, not only for him but for everybody in this clubhouse. It’s just a matter of getting behind him and encouraging him to get back to where he needs to be.”

A few notes about blown leads

In 41 games since May 1, the Dodgers have lost eight games in which they had a lead and five others in which they were tied (not counting 0-0 games).

The Dodgers have won four games after they lost a lead in that span (and, of course, rallied from other deficits).

Of the 13 games that the Dodgers lost after leading or being tied, the bullpen earned part or all of the blame in eight of them.

Only once in the 41 games since May 1 have the Dodgers surrendered a lead of more than one run and lost, on June 9 in Colorado.

Blown leads since May 1
*June 14: one-run lead, by Kershaw in fourth
*June 13: two one-run leads, by Kuroda in second and sixth
June 9: four-run lead, by Kershaw, Elbert and MacDougal in seventh (Dodgers lost)
June 7: one-run lead, by De La Rosa in second (Dodgers won)
June 4: one-run lead, by Kershaw in sixth (Dodgers won)
June 3: one-run lead, by Kuroda in fifth (Dodgers lost)
May 27: two one-run leads, by Garland in sixth and De La Rosa in eighth (Dodgers won)
May 23: one-run lead, by Kershaw in third, and two-run lead, by Jansen in ninth (Dodgers lost)
May 20: two-run lead, by Lilly in second (Dodgers won)
May 9: one-run lead, by Billingsley in third (Dodgers lost)
May 6: three one-run leads, by Kuroda in first, second and sixth innings (Dodgers lost)
*May 3: one-run lead, by Billingsley in seventh

Blown ties since May 1 (not 0-0)
*June 14: by Guerrier and Elbert in eighth (Dodgers lost)
*June 13: by Kuroda in seventh (Dodgers lost)
May 25: by Guerrier in ninth (Dodgers lost)
May 21: by Garland in fourth (Dodgers lost)
May 18: by Cormier in ninth (Dodgers lost)
May 16: by Garland in sixth (Dodgers lost)
May 7: by MacDougal, Kuo and Guerrier in eighth (Dodgers lost)
*May 3: by Broxton and Hawksworth in ninth (Dodgers lost)

*same game

Relivin’ 2005: Blind dates

First in what might be a series of features recalling the last time the Dodgers lost more than 90 games …

Record after 69 games in 2005: 33-36
Record after 69 games in 2011: 31-38
2005 finish: 71-91
2011 pace: 73-89

Dodger Thoughts, June 15, 2005: “Blind Dates”

You know what this is?

000 100 000 – 1
100 020 00x – 3

Or this?

101 000 000 – 2
200 010 00x – 3

This is not liking a girl on first glance, discovering as you go that she has substance and some nice qualities – and then realizing, after it’s too late, that you’re too shallow for her anyway.

The rundown


Stephen Dunn/Getty ImagesYou were expecting Dioner Navarro?

There’s the thrilling Dee Gordon, and Matt Kemp, and Clayton Kershaw, and … well, there’s Vin Scully of course.

Who else? I’m drawing a blank, kind of like the Dodgers basically did in tonight’s 3-2 loss to Cincinnati.

Live and in concert …

I don’t think I ever mentioned this Fangraphs panel that I’m going to be participating in the night of July 7:

… Among the confirmed guests who will be joining us for an evening of baseball discussion are:

  • Rob Neyer, national baseball writer for SB Nation
  • Vince Gennaro, author of Diamond Dollars and professor at Columbia University
  • Rich Lederer, curator of Baseball Analysts and well known Bert Blyleven booster
  • Jon Weisman, author of Dodger Thoughts and writer/editor at Variety
  • Eric Stephen, author at True Blue LA, the Dodgers arm of the SB Nation network
  • Jonah Keri, writer for FanGraphs and author of The Extra 2%
  • Carson Cistulli, editor for FanGraphs, host of FanGraphs Audio, published poet
  • David Appelman, president of FanGraphs
  • Dave Cameron, managing editor of FanGraphs

Over the course of three hours or so, we will talk extensively about the local Los Angeles franchises, the current state and future of statistical analysis, and why Jonah is just so darn likeable. In addition to hosting several moderated panel discussions, we’ll also be taking questions from the audience, aiming for an interactive discussion between guests and attendees. …

Should be fun. And then, a week later, I’ll be one of the moderators at the July 14 Variety Sports Entertainment Summit, which has a pretty massive agenda itself, capped by an exclusive look at the making of “Moneyball.”

Happy 85th birthday, Newk

Doors open and shut for Dodgers in defeat


Gus Ruelas/APDee Gordon slides home in the bottom of the eighth.

For the first time, I sat in the Dugout Club seats, which offered some interesting sights. I saw Joey Votto tell Steve Schirripa from the on-deck circle how much he liked “The Sopranos.” I held the men’s room door open for Joe Torre, whose arm was in a sling. (I would have asked why, but the extra brain exertion would have affected my door-holding performance.) I saw the special “Dugout Club Insider” magazine, with a story on Chad Billingsley test-driving a Mercedes. I saw tons of food everywhere, for free (notwithstanding the cost of the ticket that my hosts provided).

And I saw Dee Gordon, practically life-size. Oh wait – that was life-size.

Mini-Dee was central to the Dodgers’ game tonight, mostly for good but unfortunately for them, also for bad. He was diving here, throwing guys out there, flying around the bases everywhere, driving in a run with a triple and scoring one on a sacrifice fly that was hit about 27 feet. But almost literally at the moment that I was holding the door for ol’ Joe, Gordon was muffing a ground ball to open the seventh inning. Aaron Miles made another error soon after, and suddenly another door was open – this time for the Reds, who got a three-run home run from Votto off Matt Guerrier on their way to a 6-4 victory.

Gordon’s offensive efforts helped the Dodgers cut a 6-2 deficit down to two runs, in the eighth, and Matt Kemp walked to open the ninth, his third time on base in four trips. But James Loney, who had two hits earlier in the game behind Kemp, struck out, as did pinch-hitter Rod Barajas, as did catcher Dioner Navarro.

The Dodgers, who average 3.93 runs per game, scored exactly four runs for the first time in exactly one month – but lost.

It was a rough way to end what seemed like it might be another Dodger comeback – the team, for all its faults, does have a way of making you hope. But even while they’re losing, Mneep Mneep keeps it entertaining – at least from my vantage point.

* * *

Padilla likely out for season after upcoming surgery

Tony Jackson of ESPNLosAngeles.com has details on the impending surgery for Vicente Padilla.

Yet another thing about Matt Kemp: He hits righties

Andre Ethier and James Loney are among the left-handed batters who have become notorious for their struggles against same-side pitching. Matt Kemp, though, has rarely been terrible against righties, and right now they’ve stopped being any kind of problem, to say the least.

OPS vs. lefties/OPS vs. righties
2006: .578/.808
2007: 1.002/.835
2008: .989/.725
2009: 1.045/.782
2010: .809/.743
2011: 1.111/1.032 (213 plate appearances against RHP this year)
Career: .943/.792

According to the Society for American Baseball Research (via the Dodger press notes), June 12 is the earliest date a Dodger has ever reached the 20-homer mark.

* * *

In case you missed it earlier, Molly Knight of ESPN the Magazine reported that a deferred payment owed to Manny Ramirez of more than $8 million comes due at the end of the month. We’ll see what happens with the McCourt saga between now and then.

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