Dodger Thoughts

Jon Weisman's outlet for dealing psychologically with the Los Angeles Dodgers, baseball and life

Page 317 of 381

Ivan DeJesus Jr. likely to start at second base while Blake is out

Rob Tringali/Getty ImagesIvan De Jesus Jr. has a .380 on-base percentage this spring.

“Barring an injury,” writes Tony Jackson of ESPNLosAngeles.com, “infielder Ivan DeJesus looks like a strong bet to make the club and remain in the big leagues until Blake returns from back injury. DeJesus, who will be making his major league debut, likely will get the bulk of the starts at second base during that time, while Juan Uribe will move to third.”

It’s a pretty impressive feat for the infielder, who has remaining options, who had to come back from a 2009 broken leg and was even said by some to be in the Dodgers’ doghouse last year.

Jackson also writes that the Dodgers will carry four starting pitchers on their Opening Day roster, and will call up a fifth starter from the minors April 12. That pitcher figures to be John Ely, especially if Tim Redding’s back ailment today proves to be serious. Jackson:

… Redding returned to Camelback Ranch, the team’s spring-training complex in Glendale, for further examination. No diagnosis or prognosis was immediately available. …

The season opener for Triple-A Albuquerque isn’t until April 7, so whomever the Dodgers choose to start in place of Garland could start that game and then be perfectly lined up to pitch for the Dodgers on April 12 in San Francisco. …

* * *

Diamondbacks 6, Dodgers 3

Highlights:

  • Coming in to relieve the injured Redding with one on and none out in the fourth, Rubby De La Rosa got a double-play grounder and only allowed a bunt single in his first three innings.
  • Backup catchers A.J. Ellis and Hector Gimenez each went 1 for 2.
  • Xavier Paul thew out a runner at the plate.
  • Doubles by Aaron Miles and Justin Sellers’ sandwiched Ellis’ single and gave the Dodgers an early 2-0 lead.

Lowlights:

  • Redding allowed a two-run homer in the third and six hits total in his three-plus innings, before leaving with the back trouble.
  • De La Rosa allowed three runs in his fourth inning of work.
  • Tony Gwynn Jr. went 0 for 4, his spring OPS falling to .689.

Sidelights:

  • Christina Taylor Green’s brother Dallas and Tucson shooting victim Ken Dorushka threw out first pitches before today’s game.
  • Nick Charles, who has terminal cancer, will call the opening bout on HBO’s “Boxing After Dark” on Saturday, says Sports Business Daily.
  • Rafael Furcal has been recovering from an offseason illness, reports Dylan Hernandez of the Times in this feature.
  • Great pics of Fernando Valenzuela pitching in Mexico last week, shared by Roberto Baly of Vin Scully Is My Homeboy.
  • Another great item, this from Eric Nusbaum at Pitchers & Poets, gives us Ken Levine talking about Vin Scully: “Normally I can look over somebody’s shoulders, I can pick up their scorecard and I can kind of figure it out. With one exception – Vin Scully. He’s got lines and dots and stuff. I have no idea. You need Navajo code breakers to figure out Vin’s scorebook. I have no idea.”
  • Here’s part 3 of Mark Timmons’ LADodgerTalk.com interview with Logan White.
  • The Dodgers aren’t the only ones with injuries, by any means. The shoulder of Phillies closer Brad Lidge is hurting, and so is Philadelphia’s bullpen, writes David Schoenfield of ESPN.com.
  • Padres starting pitcher Mat Latos is also ailing, notes Aaron Gleeman of Hardball Talk.
  • Will Leitch on the Mets (via Rob Neyer): “Even if this year is a write-off, the team will be more enjoyable to watch than it has been the last four years, if only because the franchise is finally moving forward. It’s going to get better, soon. I promise, this isn’t a scam. You are forgiven for fearing otherwise. This is, after all, the Mets.”

* * *

Dodgers at Mariners, 7:05 p.m.

Navarro likely to be out until May

Dioner Navarro will be on the Dodger disabled list when the 2011 regular season begins and likely remain out until the end of April because of a right oblique tear. Tony Jackson of ESPNLosAngeles.com has details.

… Mattingly said A.J. Ellis and Hector Gimenez will compete during the handful of days left before Opening Day for the right to hold down the backup catching job until Navarro returns. But Mattingly also hinted that Barajas might draw almost all of the starts while Navarro is out. Although Barajas is 35 and Mattingly had planned to give him regular rest, that rest presumably isn’t as important in April.

“We’re looking at Rod as the primary guy,” Mattingly said. ” I know I have to keep him strong, and I know he is an older guy. But I love his leadership. Earlier in the season, it isn’t as big a deal. As you get more into summer, he will have more games under his belt and you’re getting into some heat, so really, you’re trying to keep him from breaking down.”

It seems more than safe to bet that Gimenez will now make the Opening Day roster, which is shaping up thusly:

Starting pitchers (4): Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, Ted Lilly, Hiroki Kuroda

Relief pitchers (7): Jonathan Broxton, Hong-Chih Kuo, Matt Guerrier, Kenley Jansen, Blake Hawksworth, Mike MacDougal, Scott Elbert or Ron Mahay

Starting lineup (8): Rod Barajas, James Loney, Jamey Carroll or Ivan De Jesus Jr., Rafael Furcal, Juan Uribe, Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, Jay Gibbons or Xavier Paul

Bench (4): Hector Gimenez, Marcus Thames, Tony Gwynn Jr., Aaron Miles

Fighting for two spots: John Ely, Tim Redding, Ramon Troncoso, Lance Cormier, Travis Schlichting, Juan Castro, Ivan DeJesus Jr., Jay Gibbons/Xavier Paul, Trent Oeltjen, A.J. Ellis

Tragedy and survival

Just after 7 a.m. Tuesday, I got in my car for a three-minute drive to our neighborhood bagel store. As I moved into the left-turn lane, a many-wheeled truck was lolling the opposite direction past the driveway of the mini-mall parking lot. And then, just as I began to make my left turn, the truck driver suddenly put his truck into reverse, blocking the driveway before I could get through.

I was on the wrong side of the street, perpendicular to traffic, with nowhere to go and a car coming at me at regular speed from about 75 yards away.

I threw my car into reverse in the middle of the boulevard to get out of the oncoming car’s way, and lived to breathe for another day.

* * *

Today in Tucson, the Dodgers and Diamondbacks will gather to play a baseball game in memory of those killed in the January 8 mass shooting in Tucson and to raise money for the Tucson Together Fund, sanctioned to assist victims, families and witnesses of tragedy.

Spirits will be heightened, but I imagine they will also be high. They’ve wrapped this day around a game, after all. It’s going to be a day where life is celebrated, even in death’s immense shadow.

The best antidote to sadness is the argument that things will get better, and short of that, to find happiness in the moments that follow, and short of that, to just find meaning. But there’s no throwing tragedy into reverse. The players and the fans will go home, will go on with their lives. The survivors will go forward into their suffering. They walk a different path.

* * *

My first depression of note came when I was in college, though it was mild by any serious standard. It was over a girl, a girl I never really had but just seemed so perfect. No, not so perfect, but so right. And in order to make sense of why she didn’t want me, I started weighing the conclusion that there might be no reason anyone would want me.

Over the next couple of years, the stakes seemed to increase. I dated, but there would be times a girl would reject me and it would just devastate me, and I truly, truly feared that I was going to spend my life alone. My biggest breakup of all, in my mid-20s, pulverized me.  I walked through life with a constant weight in my head for a couple of years. I bought books on depression. I sought therapy. It felt like the end of the world, and yet this was with the full knowledge that no one had died. It seemed so likely to me that things would be worse before they would get better.

People told me that I was being too negative. “You’re a good person. You’ll be fine.” I just had to rebuild my self-esteem, they said. I had to like myself again before anyone else could like me. But they didn’t know. They didn’t know like I did.

Each miserable day seemed eternal, and yet within five years, I did rebuild, and I met the woman I would marry.

You’d think that have taught me a lesson but good, but I can still struggle with a positive outlook, to this day. Despite my best efforts, my household outlives its means, and I cannot seem to find a solution. It weighs on me repeatedly. It doesn’t mean I don’t have happy days in between, but I do worry. My self-esteem rises and falls like the Dow.

Still, people can tell me things will get better, and they might be right.

What are those who lost loved ones in the Tucson tragedy told? What do they tell themselves?

As the Dodgers play baseball in his daughter’s memory, what is Dodger scout John Green to think?

Do they say to live each day in honor of your lost love? Do they say to just live?

This is not a self-esteem issue. The man lost his little girl. There is no going back from that.

And this happens every day, every hour, every minute. I know it has happened to readers of Dodger Thoughts.

It takes a special person to be able to survive this kind of loss. I don’t feel that I’m special in that way. But somehow people are?

I thought about this post as I kissed my daughter goodnight on her forehead last night. I wish I were going to be at today’s game.

* * *

Dodgers at Diamondbacks, 1:05 p.m.

Shades of 2004: Dodgers rally with seven in ninth

Dodgers 7, Rockies 5

A.J. Ellis, who has not hit a regular-season home run in the majors or minors since 2008, will rarely be confused with a power hitter, but he provided the knockout blast today, Steve Finley-style.

Against Rockies minor-leaguers Michael Marbry and Chris Malone, the Dodgers scored seven in the bottom of the ninth to avert a 5-0 defeat, capped by Ellis’ walkoff three-run home run.

Gabe Kapler’s two-run double in the ninth, driving in Travis Denker and the unconquerable Corey Smith (6 for 9 with three walks this spring), saved the Dodgers from a shutout. Ivan De Jesus Jr. singled in Kapler, and after Juan Castro singled and Jay Gibbons walked to load the bases, Ellis stepped up.

A wild pitch by Malone made the score 5-4 and ultimately denied Ellis the chance to truly duplicate Finley with a grand slam. Instead, Ellis settled for a three-run shot to left.

Last year’s backup catcher for much of the season, Ellis has been an afterthought in Spring Training because he has an option remaining. The immediate thought is that a serious injury to Dioner Navarro would carve out a roster spot for Hector Gimenez, not Ellis, and that may well be true — Ellis hasn’t helped himself by going 3 for 28 with two walks this spring before the home run.

But given that the Dodgers’ seem to like the idea of Gimenez playing other positions besides catcher, it’s not impossible that Ellis could still end up being the guy who would replace Navarro, with Gimenez continuing to try to make the team in a utility role.

Anyway, one home run off a minor-leaguer doesn’t amount to a hill of beans in this crazy world, but it was a beautiful moment nonetheless.

Highlights:

  • Make it three straight six-inning outings for Dodger starting pitchers, thanks to Hiroki Kuroda, who also had a rare single at the plate.
  • Jonathan Broxton and Mike MacDougal each had a walk and a strikeout in their shutout innings.
  • DeJesus singled in his first two-bats against Rockies starter Jhoulys Chacin and finished 3 for 5.
  • Last-minute starter Gimenez went 1 for 3.
  • Castro, who preceded his single with a walk, is now hitting .400.
  • The Dodgers drew eight walks.

Lowlights:

  • Kuroda lost a quality start when a fourth run came across with two out in the sixth.
  • James Loney and Xavier Paul each went 0 for 3.
  • Matt Kemp and Loney couldn’t convert a two-on, one-out chance in the first inning, and Loney struck out with two out and two runners on in the third. The Dodgers were 0 for 7 with runners in scoring position and left nine on base through the firsteight innings.
  • After Kuroda’s single moved him to second base, Jamey Carroll got picked off. Carroll also grounded into a double play with two on in the second.

Sidelights:

  • Davey Lopes is the subject of an interview and feature by Tony Jackson of ESPNLosAngeles.com.

    … Lopes’ baserunning tutorials this spring have included a little humor here and there, but there is no question he takes this stuff very seriously. He does as much demonstrating as he does talking. And while he covers the nuances and the technical aspects of taking a lead, rounding a corner and picking a spot, he delivers the information in a way that is easy to digest.“If I had him as a coach when I was younger, I would have 500 stolen bases right now,” said shortstop Rafael Furcal, the Dodgers’ leadoff man, who has 293 of them in 11 seasons. “You look at some of these kids like Dee Gordon and [Trayvon] Robinson, they are basically learning all this stuff right now, while they’re young, so when they get to the big leagues, they are going to be ready.

    “They are going to know how to run the bases in a way that will help this team win games.” …

  • Part 1 and Part 2 of LADodgertalk.com’s interview with Dodger exec Logan White. The second segment includes White’s defense of Jonathan Broxton against questions of mental toughness. “I do know that it’s in that man’s gut to be real good,” White says. “He doesn’t like to fail.”
  • “Beaver” Cleaver starts a baseball blog, at Halos Heaven.
  • The dithering about Neftali Feliz’s role on the Texas pitching staff has undithered — he will remain a reliever. New ESPN.com Sweet Spot blogger David Schoenfield shares his thoughts.
  • Grant Brisbee of McCovey Chronicles waxes about the injuries to San Francisco’s Brian Wilson and Cody Ross. Meanwhile, David Cameron of Fangraphs looks at the Giants’ shortstop worries.
  • Japan is eyeing an April 12 Opening Day for its baseball leagues, reports The Associated Press.
  • Nice piece on Pittsburgh college basketball player Nasir Robinson taking responsibility for his March Madness mess-up, from Eamonn Brennan of ESPN.com.

Dioner Navarro to play ‘MRI of Fortune’

From Tony Jackson of ESPNLosAngeles.com:

Dodgers catcher Dioner Navarro was scratched from the starting lineup for Thursday’s Cactus League game against the Colorado Rockies and sent for an MRI exam after feeling pain in his right side taking a swing during a morning session of batting practice.

Results of the MRI aren’t expected until later in the day or possibly Friday. But with the season opener now just a week away, Navarro’s injury at least raises the possibility that he could become the fourth Dodgers player expected to begin the season on the disabled list, where he would join pitchers Vicente Padilla and Jon Garland and third baseman Casey Blake. …

* * *

Rockies at Dodgers, 1:05 p.m.

Dodger Thoughts revives the Hollywood Stars Game

Getty ImagesSofia Vergara has never faced Bill Murray in an official game – yet.

Apropos of nothing …

I got to thinking the other day about the demise of the Dodgers’ Hollywood Stars game, which actually began fading in importance in my childhood – I’ve never once seen it in person – but has truly crashed on the rocks in the current era. But once upon a time, it was a big deal. In a way, with the Lakers having become the gathering nexus of stars and sports, I’m surprised they haven’t made a celebrity game a tradition.

Anyway, it’s kind of a frivolous topic, but I decided to have some fun trying to come up with rosters that would make me want to come to the game – a lineup that would put some sizzle and some stakes back into the Hollywood Stars game. Here are the ground rules:

  • Each team should have breadth across the decades, dating back at least to players born in the 1950s.
  • Each starting lineup should have at least three women.
  • Each starting lineup should have at least five players who you have reason to believe can half-decently hit, throw and catch.
  • As many players who can both play the game and play to the crowd as possible.
  • There should be one or two players on each team from foreign lands who are inept at baseball but charmingly so.
  • Oh, and the winning team gets $10 million to donate to its favorite charity. The losing team gets $5 million. Don’t worry – I’ve got it covered.

Here are my opening suggestions:

Sandys
Manager: Eli Wallach
Coach: Don Rickles
Captain: Sandy Koufax

Starting lineup
Miranda Cosgrove, C
Kobe Bryant, LF
Jon Hamm, SS
Tom Hanks, 3B
John Kraskinski, RF
Bill Murray, P
Reese Witherspoon, CF
Idris Elba, 1B
Emily Blunt, 2B

Bench
Jeff Bridges, P
Robert Redford, OF
Marisa Tomei, P
Nick Offerman, C
Ron Howard, IF
Danica McKellar, OF
Betty White, PH

Fernandos
Manager: Clint Eastwood
Coach: Ernest Borgnine
Captain: Fernando Valenzuela

Starting lineup
Alyssa Milano, 2B
Blake Griffin, CF
Bryan Cranston, P
Jimmy Kimmel, SS
Sofia Vergara, RF
Brad Pitt, 3B
Louie C.K., C (and for scorekeeping purposes, he should strike out in his first at-bat)
Tom Selleck, 1B
Amy Poelher, LF

Bench:
Will Smith, IF-OF
Anne Hathaway, OF
Zach Galifianakis, C
Mark Harmon, P
Adrianne Palicki, P
Selena Gomez, IF-OF
Mickey Rooney, PH

Broadcaster: Vin Scully

OK, now time for your suggestions. Which players did I miss? Whom would you add, and whom would you cut?

Kemp remains hot

Dodgers 6, White Sox 2

Highlights:

  • Matt Kemp (2 for 4) hit his fifth homer of the spring, a three-run shot that gave the Dodgers the lead for good. According to ESPN.com, Andre Ethier in 2008 was the last Dodger to hit five spring homers, and none has hit six since before 2005.
  • Ted Lilly gave the Dodgers another six-inning outing from a starting pitcher. Lilly allowed two runs on six hits, walking none and striking out five.
  • In a back-to-back outing, Scott Elbert pitched a shutout eighth, allowing a single to Alex Rios but then sandwiching a popout from Christian Marrero with strikeouts of Paul Konerko and A.J. Pierzynski.
  • James Loney went 2 for 4, Juan Uribe and Ivan DeJesus Jr. went 2 for 3 and Aaron Miles went 2 for 2.
  • Watch out: Juan Castro singled and is now hitting .379.

Lowlights:

  • Not much to complain about today. Ron Mahay allowed a double and a walk in a four-batter outing but no runs. Travis Schlichting allowed two baserunners with two out in the ninth before ending the game on a Gordon Beckham strikeout.

Sidelights:

  • Casey Blake had his best workout day in quite some time, reports Tony Jackson of ESPNLosAngeles.com. Jamey Carroll also got his first Cactus League at-bat in a while, striking out.
  • Josh Fisher of Dodger Divorce elaborates on this morning’s Forbes story on baseball’s major debt issues.
  • Kemp’s work with Davey Lopes gets a detailed look from Dylan Hernandez on the Times.
  • Former Dodger Don Zimmer is beginning his 63rd year in professional baseball, believed to be the most among non-owners, writes Tom Zucco for the St. Petersburg Times (via Hardball Talk).
  • Former National League West pitchers Brandon Webb and Jake Peavy have each suffered injury setbacks.

A Place in the Sun

Farewell, Elizabeth Taylor. Above is a scene from my favorite film of hers. (If you can’t see the video, click here.)

* * *

  • In case you missed it, here’s Tony Jackson’s postgame notebook from Tuesday on ESPNLosAngeles.com, topped by Chad Billingsley. Among other news, Oscar Villarreal was sent to minor-league camp. And here’s a quick note on Jamey Carroll:

    … Carroll, who has been playing on the minor league side the last few days to get at-bats while he has been limited from throwing because of soreness in his right index finger, said he had no trouble throwing Tuesday and feels ready to return to Cactus League action. However, Carroll indicated the medical staff will make the final determination on when he actually does return.

  • From Forbes: Special Report: Inside Baseball’s Debt Disaster. Believe it or not, the Dodgers are mentioned — though as Maury Brown notes, overall valuation of the franchise has risen to $800 million, third-highest in baseball.
  • “Sweet” Lou Johnson was interviewed by Evan Bladh, Jr. of Opinion of Kingman’s Performance.
  • Ernie Banks, Morgan Freeman and Carlos Santana (the musician) will be honored with Beacon Awards at MLB’s fifth-annual Civil Rights game May 15.
  • I stumbled across this article I wrote 10 years ago and had a laugh.  Enron, Qualcomm, Network Associates, 3Com … it’s quite the Hall of Fame.

* * *

Dodgers at White Sox, 1:05 p.m.

Billingsley shines, Dodgers win in 10th


Kevork Djansezian/Getty ImagesChad Billingsley (shown here on St. Patrick’s Day)

Dodgers 2, Cubs 1 (10)

Highlights:

  • In the finest outing by a Dodger pitcher this spring, Chad Billingsley threw six shutout innings, allowing four hits and three walks while striking out three. Starting in the second inning, he retired 12 batters in a row before allowing a single and two walks with two out in the sixth, but Billingsley then retired Jeff Baker on a fly to center.
  • Dodger farmhand Kyle Russell doubled with one out in the 10th, then scored on Orlando Mercado’s game-winning hit.
  • Hector Gimenez’s charmed spring added another clover when, in his first inning in left field, he threw out Tyler Colvin at the plate. Dodger Thoughts reader BHSportsGuy said Colvin had barely passed third when Gimenez picked up the ball, but it was a good, low throw to Rod Barajas.
  • Scott Elbert relieved Lance Cormier with two on and two out in the seventh, and struck out Colvin.
  • Rafael Furcal singled and doubled.
  • Xavier Paul singled in Eugenio Velez (2 for 3) in the fifth to give the Dodgers their initial 1-0 lead.
  • Hong-Chih Kuo pitched a perfect inning, striking out Carlos Pena and Geovany Soto.
  • Minor-leaguer Corey Smith singled and walked — in nine plate appearances this spring, he has a single, a double, two homers and two walks. OPS: 2.611.

Lowlights:

  • Velez hurt himself while bunting for a hit in the seventh inning.
  • Ramon Troncoso gave up a game-tying homer to the first batter he faced in the ninth inning, Baker, before retiring the next three hitters.
  • Gimenez’s charmed spring lost a clover when he went 0 for 4 at the plate with three strikeouts.
  • Jay Gibbons went 0 for 3 with two strikeouts.

Sidelights:

  • Good work by Eric Stephen of True Blue L.A., showing how the Camelback Ranch attendance drop reported by Steve Dilbeck of the Times was overblown.
  • Logan White told Mark Timmons and Jared Massey of LADodgertalk.com, “I’d rather be a Dodger than a GM,” adding that his heart really wasn’t into the job interviews he has had.
  • Blake DeWitt tripled off Cormier to start the Cubs’ thwarted seventh-inning rally.
  • Even though Stanford lost, this was the highlight of my day:

Reading is fundamental

Sorry I haven’t done any Spring Training game wraps the past two days. I took Sunday off for my son’s birthday, and then just felt I had nothing much to say after Monday’s rainout/shutout doubleheader.

Anyway, please check out Tony Jackson’s ESPNLosAngeles.com piece from Monday for a recap of the day, which begins with a short feature on left fielder Marcus Thames.

Or, read the best story of the past 24 hours: Barry Svrluga’s tender feature in the Washington Post on Chad Cordero, the pitcher trying to make a comeback after losing his daughter to SIDS.

Or read Jayson Stark’s nuanced feature for ESPN.com on Rays manager Joe Maddon’s optimistic but uncertain relationship with new designated hitter Manny Ramirez.

Or check out Baseball Prospectus’ online chat with Paul DePodesta.

Or stop by Bob Timmermann’s latest piece for Native Intelligence, on the NCAA tournament.

Or enjoy Marcia C. Smith’s appreciation in the Register of Bobby Grich’s efforts to celebrate Angels history as president of the team’s alumni association, inspired by an experience he had as a child:

… Grich was an 8-year-old, sandy-haired boy from Long Beach, taking in his first baseball game with his father at Wrigley Field the year before the Dodgers moved to Los Angeles. All he wanted was an up-close look at “my hero,” Steve Bilko, a slugging first baseman for the Los Angeles Angels of the competitive, Triple-A Pacific Coast League.

“When the game was over, I ran down to the dugout,” said Grich, his voice rising like a kite catching wind. “All the other kids were around him and I was in the back.”

So he tore an empty popcorn box into a long strip, stuck a stubby pencil at its end, stretched it over the crowd and into the strike zone of Bilko and screamed, “Steve Bilko, please sign my autograph!”

“He saw how adamant I was,” Grich recalled. “In pencil, he autographed “Steve Bilko” on this little piece of cardboard box. I was so thrilled and so excited that I grabbed it and ran all the way up the aisle, waving to my father, shouting, ‘I got Steve Bilko’s autograph! I got Steve Bilko’s autograph!'”

Grich went home, taped the autograph into his scrapbook on a page with the game’s ticket stub and the box score he clipped for the next morning’s newspaper. Now, 54 years later, he still keeps that souvenir.

“So when I got to the big leagues, any time a kid asks me for an autograph, it’s a rare that I turn down an autograph because of what a thrill it was for me to get his autograph,” said Grich, who was in uniform Sunday as a spring training guest instructor and signed autographs for 30 minutes before the game. …

* * *

Cubs at Dodgers, 1:05 p.m.

Infield in flux

The Dodgers’ afternoon game today has been rained out.

Having been unable to get into a game for quite some time now, Casey Blake appears bound for the disabled list, reports Tony Jackson of ESPNLosAngeles.com.

Blake has one hit and two walks this spring. He would likely be replaced at third base by Juan Uribe, with Jamey Carroll coming in to start at second base, but Carroll himself only has four singles and four walks in his own injury-marred spring.

Aaron Miles, Opening Day second baseman?

* * *

Dodgers at Diamondbacks, 6:40 p.m.

2011 Dodgers: Optimism under the gun


Jeff Lewis/US PresswireJason Phillips played 19 games at first base for the 2005 Dodgers.

I believe that the 2011 Dodgers could win the National League West, and that after that, anything is possible.

That being said, I don’t know that I’ve been less optimistic about a Dodger team in quite a long time. That includes the 2005 Dodgers, who ultimately finished 71-91 in between 2004 and 2006 division titles. I had doubts about that team, but they were relatively minor.  For the Hardball Times, I predicted they would win at least 80 games and maybe many more, and for Baseball Analysts, I had them finishing a close second (to the Giants) in the NL West, ultimately won by the Padres with an 82-80 record.

Rightly or wrongly, that the 2005 team disintegrated to the extent it did took me by surprise. If the same thing happened to the 2011 Dodgers, I wouldn’t be caught off guard.

Again, I do think there’s all kinds of upside to this year’s team, because of the pitching and the potential of bounce-back seasons from Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Rafael Furcal and James Loney. A late-season infusion from Jerry Sands, Rubby De La Rosa or a midseason acquisition could put the Dodgers over the top. But the foundation of the team seems crepe paper thin:

  • The starting rotation tilts toward the older side, which means the potential for decline and disappointment looms — even before you consider the chance of growing pains for Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley.
  • There’s no guarantee that Kemp, Ethier, Furcal and Loney will be better this season than last.
  • Catcher, left field and third base/second base could be wastelands.
  • Relief pitching is inherently unpredictable, which relates not just to Jonathan Broxton, but also Kenley Jansen, Matt Guerrier and more.
  • An ill-placed injury or two could simply devastate this squad.

While pondering the spring of Hector Gimenez this weekend, seeing him get more play at first base, it occurred to me that he could be the 2011 Jason Phillips — a player with a high-.600s, low-.700s regular-season OPS getting time at a key hitting position partly out of frustration with the incumbent (James Loney, meet Hee Seop Choi). Phillips actually didn’t play that much first base for the ’05 Dodgers, but some still consider him emblematic of a season gone wrong.

Let me reiterate that I’m not giving up on this team — as I’ve said before, I’m actually kind of looking forward to the start of the 2011 season more than 2010, when I was more confident. If nothing else, Spring Training 2011 has been noticeably tranquil, and maybe that’s a good sign.

I’m often accused, sometimes derisively, of being an optimist — in contrast to being a realist, a word that somehow the pessimists co-opted for themselves. I don’t think my optimism has even been unrealistic. The Dodgers teams that I have been optimistic about had real chances to perform well, whether they actually did or not, and I think I’ve sometimes been quite justified to preach patience and calm.

I believe in the potential of the 2011 Dodgers. I believe this will be a long season with many twists and turns. I don’t believe that, if things start to look grim, I’ll be out on the streets of Faber shouting, “Remain calm — all is well!”

March 20 game chat

Dodgers at White Sox, 1:05 p.m.

No. 3 for No. 3

Three years ago today came our little big man.  In the time since, he has shown himself to be absolutely the most joyous person I have ever known, utterly friendly and curious, and yes, more than a little devilish and, well, dashing.

Happy birthday, my boy.

Previously on Dodger Thoughts:

Three Is a Magic Number

The Boy Turns 3

Dodgers, Brewers take Route 6-6

Dodgers 6, Brewers 6

Highlights:

  • Aaron Miles went 2 for 4 with a one-out double in the bottom of the ninth that led to the tying run, completing the Dodgers’ rally from a 6-2 deficit.
  • Juan Castro also doubled and singled.
  • Scott Elbert pitched a perfect inning. He stayed around the plate for the first two batters, before going to a three-ball count on the third.

Lowlights:

  • Ramon Troncoso replaced Hiroki Kuroda with two out in the sixth inning, score tied 1-1 and two runners on base. By the time he got the third out, the score was 4-1 Brewers.
  • Two more runs came off of Travis Schlichting in the seventh inning.

Sidelights:

  • Vicente Padilla’s rehabilitation seems to be progressing rapidly, reports Tony Jackson of ESPNLosAngeles.com.
  • San Francisco closer Brian Wilson has a ribcage strain and might miss the start of the regular season, says The Press that is Associated.

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