Dodger Thoughts

Jon Weisman's outlet for dealing psychologically with the Los Angeles Dodgers, baseball and life

Tag: Zack Greinke (Page 5 of 9)

Zack Greinke’s adjusted ERA is better than Bob Gibson’s in 1968

Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers

Adjusted ERA July 9By Jon Weisman

In 1968, Bob Gibson famously had a 1.12 ERA that was baseball’s lowest in more than 50 years.

Right now, adjusted for park and era factors, Zack Greinke is better.

At right, you can see where Greinke stands among the greatest adjusted ERAs (ERA+) of all time, according to Baseball-Reference.com. (Click to enlarge the chart.)

The next-closest Dodger doesn’t come until Roger Craig (205 ERA+, 1959), in 46th place. Clayton Kershaw’s best single-season ERA+ was 194 last year, and Sandy Koufax’s was 190 in 1966 (77th).

Of course, Greinke has only thrown 123 1/3 innings so far this year.  Gibson threw 304 2/3 in 1968, and adjusted ERA doesn’t factor in that level of durability.

Greinke has been boosted by a career-low .235 opponents’ batting average on balls in play, and in his 17 starts, he has allowed nine hits total with runners in scoring position (.203 on-base percentage, .224 slugging percentage).

Read more about Greinke’s unbelievable exploits in 2015 in Thursday night’s post.

Zack Greinke finishes historic first half with 1.39 ERA, 35 2/3 consecutive scoreless innings

Getty Images

Getty Images

By Jon Weisman

Remarkable.

Breathtaking.

With his eight shutout innings against the Philadelphia Phillies tonight, extending his scoreless inning streak to 35 2/3 innings, Zack Greinke has the lowest ERA at the All-Star Break by a pitcher with at least 100 innings since 1968.

In the past 47 years, Greinke’s 1.39 ERA at the end of the so-called first half is surpassed only by Bob Gibson (1.06), Luis Tiant (1.24) and Don Drysdale (1.37). Major League Baseball lowered the pitcher’s mound the following season.

Other than those three legends, you have to go back to World War II to find a hurler with a lower first-half ERA than Greinke’s: Red Munger’s 1.34 in 1944.

Greinke’s scoreless inning streak is now the fourth-longest in Los Angeles Dodger history, behind Orel Hershiser’s MLB-record 59, Drysdale’s 58 and Clayton Kershaw’s 41 last year.

It says something that not until the seventh paragraph am I mentioning that Greinke has retired 36 of the past 37 batters he has faced, starting with the final 12 New York Mets on Independence Day.

Tonight, Ryan Howard’s leadoff single in the second inning removed the drama of a no-hitter or perfect game, which would have been considerable considering Greinke shut down every other batter, throwing a svelte 94 pitches. Greinke has now seen 125 hitters during the streak, allowing 10 singles, three doubles and three walks while striking out 31.

Only two players during the streak have reached third base — none in the past 27 2/3 innings. Greinke has pitched 12 consecutive innings without allowing a runner into scoring position.

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Inside Zack Greinke’s scoreless streak

Juan Ocampo/Los Angeles Dodgers

Back on July 4, Zack Greinke’s ERA was way above 1.50. (Juan Ocampo)

By Jon Weisman

In 27 2/3 innings across four starts since June 18, facing exactly 100 batters, Zack Greinke has allowed …

  • zero runs
  • two runners to reach third base
  • three walks
  • three extra-base hits
  • 10 runners to reach scoring position
  • a .156 batting average
  • a .190 on-base percentage
  • a .188 slugging percentage
  • a 7.7 strikeout-walk ratio

Zack streak

Pending his start tonight against the Phillies, Greinke (1.48 ERA) could become the first MLB pitcher to have an ERA below 1.50 before the All-Star Break since Roger Clemens in 2000, the first NL pitcher since Bob Knepper in 1981 and the first Dodger since Don Drysdale in 1968.

Gonzalez, Grandal, Greinke and Pederson join NL All-Star roster

2015-All-Stars-880x440

By Jon Weisman

For the second year in a row, four Dodgers have been named to the National League All-Star team.

Adrian Gonzalez, Yasmani Grandal, Zack Greinke and Joc Pederson were selected by a combination of player vote and NL All-Star manager Bruce Bochy. (Pederson and Greinke were by player vote, Gonzalez and Grandal by Bochy.)

As noted Sunday, Greinke and Pederson are each in the running to end up as All-Star Game starters. Greinke is probably the No. 1 alternative to Washington’s Max Scherzer, while Pederson is one of the top candidates to be an injury replacement for either Giancarlo Stanton or Matt Holliday.

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Shutout Sunday won’t extend to All-Star selections Monday

LOS ANGELES DODGERS V NEW YORK METS

By Jon Weisman

The Dodgers were shut out today by the Mets and the National League All-Star voters, who didn’t put any Dodger position players among the league’s elected starters.

Los Angeles still has a chance to make an impression on the All-Star roster when reserves are announced Monday afternoon, with Zack Greinke, Clayton Kershaw, Kenley Jansen and J.P. Howell in consideration for the pitching staff and Joc Pederson, Adrian Gonzalez, Yasmani Grandal and Justin Turner for the bench. Pederson and Greinke could still even end up in the starting lineup.

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Southpaw starters sort of stymie Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers during game against the Miami Marlins Sunday, June 28, 2015 at Marlins Park in Miami, Florida. The  Dodgers beat the Marlins 2-0 . Photo by Jon SooHoo/©Los Angeles Dodgers,LLC 2015

Kiké Hernandez is 14 for 41 with five doubles, two triples, a homer and three walks against left-handed starting pitching this season. (Jon SooHoo/Los Angeles Dodgers)

Mets at Dodgers, 1:10 p.m.
Kiké Hernandez, SS
Howie Kendrick, 2B
Justin Turner, 3B
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
Yasiel Puig, RF
Soctt Van Slyke, LF
Joc Pederson, CF
A.J. Ellis, C
Mike Bolsinger, P

By Jon Weisman

It’s more like a bug bite than a debilitating injury, but the Dodgers could be happier, healthier and heartier facing left-handed starters this year.

Going into today’s game against left-handed Mets rookie Steven Matz, the Dodgers are 7-8 (.467) against southpaw starters in 2015, compared with 39-28 (.582) against righties.

In those eight losses, the Dodgers have scored a combined 14 runs. Three of those eight losses have come in games started by San Francisco’s Madison Bumgarner, who has a 1.31 ERA against Los Angeles in 2015.

In their seven wins against lefty starters, the Dodgers have scored 35 runs (five per game).

Lefty starters have held the Dodgers to a .668 OPS, as opposed to their .783 OPS against righty starters. Confounding expectations, Dodger right-handed batters have hit better against righties than lefties in 2015.

Yasiel Puig (1.082 OPS) and Kiké Hernandez (1.034 OPS) have been the Dodgers’ best hitters against lefty starters this year, which helps explain why Hernandez is batting leadoff today. Joc Pederson is starting in the No. 7 spot for the first time since April, though his OPS against lefty starters (.875) is third on the team, ahead of Scott Van Slyke (.744).

One problem for the Dodgers is that the typical No. 3 and No. 4 hitters, Justin Turner (.559) and Adrian Gonzalez (.601) have not done well in their small samples against lefty starters this year. The right-handed hitting Turner’s career platoon splits actually favor him against right-handed pitching (.681 OPS vs. all lefties, .816 OPS vs. all righties).

Further, Dodger catchers A.J. Ellis, Yasmani Grandal and Austin Barnes are 7 for 44 with two doubles and no home runs against southpaw starters this year (.204 slugging percentage), though Ellis does have 10 walks to give him a .356 on-base percentage.

Even Alex Guerrero only has a .239 on-base percentage against left-handed starters, though he has two homers in 45 at-bats.

One other piece of trivia: The Dodgers have one stolen base all season against a left-handed starter, and that was by Zack Greinke.

Zack Greinke’s ERA puts him in rare air

Los Angeles Dodgers during game against the Miami Marlins Sunday, June 28, 2015 at Marlins Park in Miami, Florida. The  Dodgers beat the Marlins 2-0 . Photo by Jon SooHoo/©Los Angeles Dodgers,LLC 2015

first half ERABy Jon Weisman

In the history of the Dodgers, only one time has a pitcher had a better ERA in the first half of a season than Zack Greinke’s 1.58 with the Dodgers today.

That pitcher was Don Drysdale, the year of his record streak of 58 consecutive scoreless innings. Drysdale had a 1.37 ERA before the All-Star Break, before finishing the year at 2.15.

If Greinke, who extended his own scoreless innings streak to 20 2/3 innings in the Dodgers’ 2-0 victory Sunday over Miami, can maintain his current ERA over what figure to be his two remaining starts before the All-Star Break, it would only be the 15th time in the past 50 years that any MLB starting pitcher has had an ERA below 1.60 at the break (minimum 75 innings).

15 in 50

If you really want to get ahead of yourself, nine starting pitchers — none of them Dodgers — have finished a season with at least 150 innings and a park/era-adjusted ERA better than Greinke’s today. The best was Pedro Martinez (1.74 ERA, 291 ERA+). Greinke’s current ERA is lower than Martinez’s, but the easier pitching enviroment puts Greinke’s ERA+ at 235.

Don’t expect Greinke to keep his 2015 ERA below Robert Hoover’s grade-point average at Faber College, but it’s still fun to think about.

NL West stuck in neutral

Dodgers at Marlins, 10:10 a.m.
Joc Pederson, CF
Howie Kendrick, 2B
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
Yasiel Puig, RF
Yasmani Grandal, C
Andre Ethier, RF
Alberto Callaspo, 3B
Jimmy Rollins, SS
Zack Greinke, P

By Jon Weisman

Here are the National League West standings since June 1, entering play today (with run differential in parentheses):

13-14 .481 Los Angeles (+12)
12-13 .480 Arizona (-25)
12-13 .480 San Diego (-22)
11-13 .458 San Francisco (+9)
11-15 .423 Colorado (-9)

The best and worst teams are separated by 1 1/2 games. And the Dodgers are even with the Diamondbacks and Padres even though they’ve essentially outscored those two teams by 37 and 34 runs. Los Angeles is 4-6 in one-run games this month.

The June division title will be at stake Monday through Wednesday, when the Dodgers finish their 10-game road trip and stretch of 34 games in 34 days at Arizona.

* * *

Zack Greinke enters today’s game with 13 consecutive scoreless innings, a 0.98 ERA in his past four starts and a 1.79 ERA with a .596 opponents’ OPS in the nine starts (60 1/3 innings) he has made since his last victory. The Dodgers are 4-5 in that period.

Greinke has pitched 59 full innings since his last win, and has shut out the opponent in 49 of them.

The now is future for Zack Greinke

Oldtimers Day Luncheon

Dodgers at Padres, 7:10 p.m.
Joc Pederson, CF
Yasiel Puig, RF
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
Howie Kendrick, 2B
Justin Turner, 3B
Andre Ethier, LF
Yasmani Grandal, C
Jimmy Rollins, SS
Zack Greinke, P

By Jon Weisman

Zack Greinke, tonight’s starting pitcher, is a well known front-office aficionado. In this piece for the Register, Bill Plunkett explores with Greinke how realistic a career in baseball would be.

Read the whole piece, but here’s a small sample:

“I’ve thought about what I’m going to do after baseball for probably the past 10 years now and that’s always been one of the possibilities,” Greinke, 31, said. “A lot of that depends on family and if I’d be willing to be away from family as much as it takes to do a job like that. Especially to do a job like that well, it takes a lot of time. And if you get pretty high up in the front office, it takes a lot of time. You’re pretty much saying goodbye to your family.”

For now, Greinke’s focus is on the Padres and maintaining his strong 2015 performance. As Eric Stephen notes at True Blue L.A., “Greinke has started 83 different innings this season, and has allowed multiple runs in just four of them, never more than two runs in a single inning.”

* * *

Tonight is the first time the Dodgers have started Joc Pederson, Yasiel Puig, Adrian Gonzalez, Howie Kendrick, Justin Turner, Andre Ethier, Yasmani Grandal and Jimmy Rollins together this season — which is essentially the Dodger starting lineup for the time being.

Zack Greinke’s Dodger Stadium domination

Oldtimers Day Luncheon

Cardinals at Dodgers, 5:08 p.m.
Joc Pederson, CF
Yasiel Puig, RF
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
Justin Turner, 3B
Andre Ethier, LF
Yasmani Grandal, C
Kiké Hernandez, 2B
Jimmy Rollins, SS
Zack Greinke, P

By Jon Weisman

In contrast to Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke is someone whose peripheral stats haven’t quite lived up to his ERA this season.

Though he had a streak of five consecutive starts allowing one run or less snapped Tuesday in Colorado, Greinke’s 2015 ERA is still a wonderful 1.97, but his fielding-independent ERA according to Fangraphs is 3.06 and his xFIP is 3.50. Greinke’s strikeouts per nine innings are at 7.4 this season, compared with 8.1 for his career and 9.2 in 2014.

Greinke’s WHIP is 0.95, lower than even what he had in his outstanding 2009 American League Cy Young Award-winning season. That’s thanks in part to a career-low .246 opponents’ batting average on balls in play, compared with .307 for his career.

One thing that can’t be denied is how well Greinke has pitched at Dodger Stadium. In 243 2/3 career regular-season innings here, Greinke has a 2.29 ERA with 239 strikeouts and a 0.99 WHIP.

Including the postseason, Greinke has made 17 consecutive starts at Dodger Stadium and 29 of his past 30 allowing three earned runs or less, the only exception being when he allowed four to the Pirates on June 1, 2014.

In case you missed it: Inside Zack Greinke’s ridiculous start to 2015

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Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles DodgersBy Jon Weisman

How many fans are even aware that Zack Greinke leads the Major Leagues in ERA? Here’s more on Greinke’s super season so far, plus other news and notes:

  • Some interesting tidbits about Greinke fill Pedro Moura’s story for the Register, based in no small part on a conversation with A.J. Ellis. Here’s a sample:

    In combination with his fastball, the changeup and slider have presented an unusual problem to the opposition. Ninety-three percent of Greinke’s pitches have been clocked within roughly 5 mph of each other. They’re released similarly, travel at unusually similar velocities, and then, approaching the plate, they split off in separate directions.

    “It’s pretty hard for hitters when the three pitches come in and you don’t know which way they’re going to go,” Ellis said. “Is it going to come straight through? Is it going to run down and in? Is it going down and away?”

    Greinke, whose fielding-independent ERA is higher than Clayton Kershaw’s, acknowledges he has been lucky on balls in play this season, in contrast to Kershaw and …

  • … Chris Hatcher, who spoke candidly about his recent struggles, as seen in this story by Eric Stephen of True Blue L.A. As with Moura’s article on Greinke, you need to read the entire story on Hatcher, but here’s an excerpt:

    Hatcher’s ERA in May was 3.00 entering Wednesday night (it is 6.00 now), after a 7.56 mark in April. But if there is one glaring difference in the two months, it’s in strikeouts. In April Hatcher struck out 15 of 38 batters faced (39.5%), but in May just two of 31 batters he faced have struck out.

    We are talking about all of 14⅓ innings on the season here, so take these numbers with a grain of salt. But peripherally Hatcher is having a fine season. Despite his 6.91 ERA, his 17 strikeout, five walks and no home runs allowed give him a 2.23 FIP and a 3.58 xFIP.

    But waiting for the numbers to even out isn’t a luxury most relief pitchers have, nor does it make giving up actual runs any less annoying.

    “I feel like every ball put in play is a hit off me, recently,” Hatcher said. “A couple of those were poor pitches. But what’s frustrating is when you execute your pitch and somehow the ball still finds the ground or the guy ends up on first.”

    Update: Here’s more analysis from Dustin Nosler of Dodgers Digest.

  • Julio Urias had his cosmetic eye surgery Thursday, according to J.P. Hoornstra of the Daily News.
  • “Dodgers pitcher Chad Gaudin recently underwent carpal tunnel release surgery on his right wrist and could be pitching in a month,” Ken Gurnick reported on MLB.com earlier this week.
  • Dodger senior vice president of planning and development Janet Marie Smith has been nominated for executive of the year at the Stadium Business Awards.
  • The fate of Mets third baseman David Wright resembles that of Don Mattingly during his days with the Yankees, writes Steven Martano of Beyond the Box Score.
  • Matt Holliday of tonight’s Dodger opponents in St. Louis has reached base in 43 consecutive games to start the season, “the longest streak in the National League since 1914” to open a season according to ESPN.com. David Cobb of MLB.com adds that the MLB record to start a season is 53 by Derek Jeter.

In case you missed it: Andre Ethier keeps on truckin’

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres

For more images from Friday, visit LA Photog Blog — here and here.

Dodgers at Padres, 5:40 p.m.
Jimmy Rollins, SS
Andre Ethier, RF
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
Howie Kendrick, 2B
Yasmani Grandal, C
Carl Crawford, LF
Juan Uribe, 3B
Joc Pederson, CF
Brandon McCarthy, P

By Jon Weisman

So-called reserve outfielder Andre Ethier hasn’t exactly been a wallflower this season.

With Yasiel Puig’s left hamstring again ailing, Ethier is making his eighth start this season. He is also appearing in his 16th game out of the Dodgers’ first 17, more than every other Dodger except Adrian Gonzalez, Howie Kendrick, Jimmy Rollins and Joc Pederson.

So far in 2015, Ethier is 9 for 30 with four walks, two hit-by-pitches and an extra-base hit of each kind, giving the 33-year-old a .405 on-base percentage and .900 slugging percentage. All but five of his plate appearances have come against right-handed pitchers, which is what he’s facing tonight in San Diego’s Ian Kennedy.

Here are some other pregame notes:

  • Both Puig and reliever Joel Peralta are candidates to go on the disabled list, Don Mattingly toward reporters today, but no decision has been made. Peralta told Ken Gurnick of MLB.com that he has no pain but also no strength in his right arm.
  • Right-handed pitcher Scott Baker has arrived in San Diego with the intent of making the start Sunday for the Dodgers. Baker, who came within one strike of a seven-inning perfect game for Triple-A Oklahoma City on Monday, allowed two runs on 10 hits with one walk while striking out 16 in his three minor-league starts. The 33-year-old had a 5.47 ERA with 55 strikeouts in 80 2/3 innings for Texas last season.
  • Hyun-Jin Ryu is going to throw a bullpen session, possibly as soon as Sunday, Mattingly said.
  • Defensive positioning paid off in two big ways for the Dodgers in Friday’s 3-0 victory over San Diego. In the second inning, Howie Kendrick was standing almost directly behind second base when he caught Wil Myers’ line drive, completing Zack Greinke’s escape from a bases-loaded, none-out jam. And shortstop Jimmy Rollins ended up on the other side of second base when he threw out Yonder Alonso with two on and two out in the bottom of the eight.
  • Rollins went 0 for 4 to lower his on-base percentage to .282, but he really saved the Dodgers in that eighth inning, throwing out Wil Myers from the grass in left field for the first out, then later knocking down a Justin Upton shot to keep Matt Kemp from scoring from second base.
  • With his seven shutout innings, Zack Greinke lowered his ERA to 1.35, fourth in the National League.
  • Yimi Garcia’s perfect ninth inning, leading to his first Major League save, means that he has faced 36 batters this season and allowed only three singles and three walks while striking out 16.
  • Carl Crawford, who hit his first homer of 2015 Friday, did not hit between .200 and .300 in any given month last season. His batting averages the last three months of 2014: .163, .313, .448. Crawford is currently batting .244 with a .262 on-base percentage and .390 slugging percentage.
  • When Yasmani Grandal had to settle for a double after nearly hitting a home run in the second inning Friday, it set the stage for Juan Uribe’s first RBI of the 2015 season. Uribe hasn’t had more steals than homers since 2002, but for now, he’s one up in the stolen-base department.
  • First-base coach Davey Lopes, who turns 70 May 3, “is the oldest person in uniform with a big league team this season,” according to Tracy Ringolsby of MLB.com.

Yes, they lost, but this was still great

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers

For more photos from Tuesday, visit LA Photog Blog.

By Jon Weisman

Despite the Dodgers losing by four runs, Tuesday’s game was not without its highlights, starting with Vin Scully’s narrative about beards in 2015.
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Dodger defense will see better days after 7-3 defeat

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By Jon Weisman

Three sighs, and the Dodgers were out.

Adrian Gonzalez is hitting like a man possessed in his first two games of 2015 and Zack Greinke was practically untouchable in his season debut, but the Dodgers are 1-1, thanks to a three-error performance by their defense tonight that figures to be uncharacteristic.

After a 30-minute rain delay, San Diego topped Los Angeles, 7-3, scoring its first four runs thanks to shortcomings by the Dodger defense.

  • Racing in on a wet outfield, Carl Crawford’s diving attempt failed to corral Justin Upton’s sinking liner in the first inning, allowing it to scoot past for an RBI triple. Padres 1, Dodgers 0.
  • Jimmy Rollins lost his balance while backpedaling for a seventh-inning Yangervis Solarte pop-up, dropping the ball to allow Yonder Alonso to score. Combined with a second-inning miscue on a grounder, it was Rollins’ first two-error game since August 10, 2010. Padres 2, Dodgers 2.
  • With two on and one out and in the top of the eighth, Will Middlebrooks flied to Yasiel Puig, who caught the ball flat-footed. Derek Norris tagged up and went to third base, then scored on an Alonso single. Padres 3, Dodgers 2.
  • In the ninth, after Clint Barmes singled, Cory Spangenberg reached base when Yasmani Grandal bobbled his bunt and then made a desperate throw into Spangenberg’s back. Barmes advanced to third, then scored on a single by Wil Myers. Padres 4, Dodgers 3.

The Padres would tack on three more runs to effectively put the game out of reach. San Diego won by four, scoring three unearned runs, plus the first inning tally that was questionably if officially earned.

“Errors are gonna happen,” Don Mattingly said. “The field – there was a little rain – but I think guys for the most part would say the field didn’t have a lot to do with it. Plays we have chances to make, we don’t make.”

Puig, as he so often does, recovered from his setback in impressive ways, making a difficult catch of a foul by Upton for the second out of the ninth. And the Dodgers were twice resilient, rallying from 1-0 and 3-2 deficits before the dam burst in the ninth.

Leading the way was Gonzalez, who became the first Major League player since Ray Jablonski in 1956 and second ever to have a single, double and home run in each of his first two games of the season. Gonzalez is 6 for 9 with a hard liner to third in his first at-bat of 2015. His sixth-inning double and eighth-inning homer each tied the game.

The Dodgers’ eight doubles in their first two games also ties a Los Angeles record set in 1995.

On the mound, Zack Greinke was fairly mesmerizing. After allowing a two-out hit to Matt Kemp in the first before Upton’s triple, Grienke held the next 18 Padres hitless with one walk. The bullpen didn’t fare nearly as well, with six relievers combining to allow nine hits over the final three innings.

In case you missed it: A one and a two …

By Jon Weisman

Today’s Dodger farewell to Arizona offered a rare, nearly simultaneous outing for both the No. 1 and No. 2 starters — Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke.

Kershaw’s final preseason tuneup (three innings, three baserunners, two strikeouts) left the Dodger ace in his familiar, humbly optimistic form.

“There’s definitely room for improvement, but physically, I feel good and feel ready to go,” Kershaw told MLB.com. “That’s all you can ask for at this point.”

Meanwhile, pitching against Dodger minor leaguers, Greinke allowed two home runs but ultimately threw 85 pitches in seven innings. Ken Gurnick of MLB.com describes the adjustments Greinke was making during the outing.

  • After Kershaw departed, Zach Lee entered the game against the Royals and unfurled five nearly spotless innings. He came out in the ninth for the chance at the nearly impossible — the six-inning save. Unfortunately, Lee surrendered a two-run homer, tagging him with a blown save after 5 1/3 innings and leaving the Dodgers with their seventh tie of Spring Training, 4-4.
  • Dustin McGowan was officially released by the Dodgers.
  • Before Monday’s game, Don Mattingly and Arizona manager Chip Hale met — successfully, it appears — to defuse any tension between the two teams.
  • J.P. Hoornstra of the Daily News describes how a nearly anonymous 19-year-old Dodger minor leaguer, Victor Gonzalez, made an impression on Yasmani Grandal today.

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