Offense – Page 4 – Dodger Thoughts

Dodgers remain on record strikeout pace

On August 30, 2014

For more photos from Friday, visit LA Photog Blog.

Dodgers at Padres, 5:40 p.m.
Dee Gordon, 2B
Hanley Ramirez, SS
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
Matt Kemp, RF
Yasiel Puig, CF
Carl Crawford, LF
Justin Turner, 3B
Drew Butera, C
Zack Greinke, P

By Jon Weisman

Back in April – admittedly, when the season wasn’t even a month old – I couldn’t help but comment on the remarkable number of strikeouts that were piling up in Dodger games.

At the time, the Dodgers were far ahead of team-record strikeout paces both on offense and on the mound. Now that we’ve only got a month to go, and with the team striking out 15 times in their 3-2, 12-inning loss Friday, I thought I’d see where things stood.

Dodger hitting
1,190 strikeouts in 1996 (team record)
1,033 strikeouts to date in 2014 (135 games)
1,240 projected strikeouts in 2014
7.65 strikeouts per game in 2014
5.81 strikeouts per game needed to break record

Dodger pitching
1,292 strikeouts in 2013 (team record)
1,133 strikeouts to date in 2014 (135 games)
1,360 projected strikeouts in 2014
8.39 strikeouts per game in 2014
5.93 strikeouts per game needed to break record

So yeah, it’s practically a lock that those records are going to fall. Perhaps it’s just a symptom of the game’s evolution toward more and more strikeouts – even on its record pace, the Dodger offense is only fifth in the National League in whiffs. (Dodger pitchers rank first in the NL. )

However, it’s interesting that the strikeout record on offense is nearly 20 years old. The ’96 Dodgers had six players with at least 90 strikeouts, including 121 from Eric Karros, 122 from Raul Mondesi and 124 from … Delino DeShields.

Here’s the 2014 Dodgers’ record in big strikeout games on offense:

K W-L
16 1-1
15 0-1
14 1-1
13 0-1
12 1-4
11 7-6
10 5-3
9 7-5
9+ 22-22

Extreme Carl Crawford

By Jon Weisman

On August 20, 2014

In Offense

[mlbvideo id=”35513037″ width=”550″ height=”308″ /]
By Jon Weisman

When it comes to cold and hot running Crawfords, they don’t come much colder or hotter than Carl.

The Dodger left fielder put an exclamation point on his latest hot streak with his seventh-inning home run Tuesday off San Diego reliever Alex Torres, Crawford’s first home run in 122 at-bats since May 23 and his first homer off a left-handed pitcher since April 10, 2013.

Weirdly, Crawford’s last home run off a righty was against Roberto Hernandez, and his last homer off a lefty was against Eric Stults. Those are the two starting pitchers facing each other in tonight’s Dodgers-Padres game.

But my main point today is how streaky a hitter Crawford has been this year. We’ve seen him take two major down-and-up trips in 2014, bifurcated by his 6 1/2-week stay on the disabled list.

It’s easy to understand why Dodger manager Don Mattingly keeps the faith in Crawford, even when he looks ragged. When Crawford is hot, he’s scorching.

Interestingly, with this recent run of success, Crawford’s season OPS is almost even with that of Andre Ethier (.678). As the second-best Dodger baserunner behind Dee Gordon, thanks in no small part to 19 steals in 22 attempts (86.4 percent), Crawford does now have an overall production edge over Ethier in 2014.

Since June 1, the Dodgers have won 29 games while hitting 21 home runs

By Jon Weisman

On July 28, 2014

In Offense

For more Jon SooHoo highlights from Sunday’s game, visit the LA Photog Blog.

By Jon Weisman

The Dodgers swept the Giants this weekend — scoring 17 runs in three games with five doubles and five triples — but without hitting a single home run, and they remain stuck on eight homers in 21 games in July. Which leaves us with the following oddity:

March/April: 27 homers, 15 wins
May: 30 homers, 15 wins
June: 13 homers, 18 wins
July: eight homers, 11 wins

Not only have the Dodgers hit only 21 homers while going 29-20 in June-July, they’ve allowed 38. Nevertheless, Los Angeles has outscored opponents, 195-157.

How odd is that June-July run? I can’t say the last time it happened over a two-month stretch, but for a full season, the Dodgers haven’t had more wins than home runs since 1976, when they won 92 games on 91 home runs.

For all of 2014, the Dodgers have 59 wins on 78 home runs.

Dodger home runs in July: Scott Van Slyke (3), Adrian Gonzalez (2), Yasiel Puig, Miguel Rojas, Juan Uribe.

Dodger scoring drought isn’t permanent, but it’s a long one

By Jon Weisman

On July 20, 2014

In Offense, Pregame

Dodgers at Cardinals, 5:05 p.m.
Kershaw CXCVII: Kershawckford Files
Dee Gordon, 2B
Hanley Ramirez, SS
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
Matt Kemp, LF
Andre Ethier, RF
Scott Van Slyke, CF
Juan Uribe, 3B
A.J. Ellis, C
Clayton Kershaw, P

By Jon Weisman

The Dodgers will score again.

I know it doesn’t look like the Dodgers will score again, but the Dodgers will score again. Because teams always score again.

But, it has been a bit of a dry spell for the offense.

Los Angeles has gone seven straight games without scoring more than three runs, one of their longest streaks since the team last won a World Series in 1988.

11 June 26-July 6, 1989 (2-9)
9 July 23-August 1, 2003 (2-7)
8 September 4-13, 2012 (1-7)
8 June 23-30, 2012 (1-7)
8 July 21-29, 2010 (5-3)*
8 August 19-26, 2008 (1-7)
8 May 8-15, 2002 (3-5)
8 June 7-15, 1992 (2-6)
7 July 9-19, 2014 (3-4)
7 August 9-15, 1997 (3-4)
7 July 7-11, 1992 (2-5)
7 April 28-May 10, 1992 (1-6)
7 April 11-17, 1989 (2-5)

*From July 21-27, 2010, the Dodgers scored 11 runs in six games — and went 5-1, thanks to four shutouts plus a 3-2 win.

Behind Clayton Kershaw tonight, the Dodgers could conceivably go 4-4 in eight low-scoring games, though of course they’d welcome an offensive explosion as a change of pace.

Clutch much? Dodgers actually crisp with RISP, but is it ever enough?

By Jon Weisman

On July 16, 2014

In Analysis, Offense

Hanley Ramirez had a .404 on-base percentage with runners in scoring position heading into the All-Star Break, despite a 1-for-9 mark with the bases loaded. (Jon SooHoo/Los Angeles Dodgers)

Yasiel Puig has a 1.013 OPS with runners in scoring position this year, but is 0 for 6 with the bases loaded. (Jon SooHoo/Los Angeles Dodgers)

By Jon Weisman

Ducks on the pond, stranded. It’s enough to make you quack up.

Short of the final out of a loss, there’s hardly a worse feeling in baseball for an offense than failing to cash in on scoring opportunities.

In fact, the sight of a team stranding runners in scoring position is so unbearable that everyone, from fans to the media, usually thinks of their team as a disappointment in clutch situations — even when that team is doing all that can be expected. It’s certainly no different if you’re following the Dodgers.

Heading into the All-Star Break, the Dodgers weren’t known as a clutch team — if anything, they were dogged by a rather bizarre pileup of failings in bases-loaded situations, in which they had gone 11 for 63 (.175) with as many hit-by-pitches (two) as walks.

Yet with runners in scoring position, the Dodgers had the highest on-base percentage (.354) in the Majors. By that measure, Los Angeles was home to the most clutch team in the baseball.

You could even argue that the Dodgers, like the prototypical when-the-chips-are-down hero, turned it up when the pressure was on, given that their offensive stats were better with runners in scoring position than with the bases empty.

But even here, one has to be careful with how to interpret these numbers.

Fluke city
The more you dive into analyzing specific situations, the more the statistics succumb to the frailties of small sample size.

Just as Ethier heats up, wall of lefties in Colorado awaits

By Jon Weisman

On July 3, 2014

In Offense

[mlbvideo id=”34238029″ width=”550″ height=”308″ /]

By Jon Weisman

There’s no denying that Andre Ethier is having the roughest year of his fine nine — yes, nine — in the Major Leagues, but he showed particular signs of life on the Dodgers’ recent homestand. And normally, there’s nothing like a four-game trip to Coors Field in Colorado to turn a momentary spurt into a full-fledged hot streak.

Ethier hitting a three-run home run against Shelby Miller of St. Louis on Saturday.

But in a cruel and unusual twist for Ethier, Colorado has four left-handed pitchers lined up to start against the Dodgers: Franklin Morales, Jorge De La Rosa, Yohan Flande and Christian Freidrich. And Ethier is struggling this year as much as ever against southpaws, with a .268 on-base percentage and .263 slugging in 42 plate appearances.

The confluence of lefties comes with Rockies righties Jordan Lyles and Jhoulys Chacin on the disabled list.

None of the four scheduled starting pitchers are intimidating. Morales, an eight-year veteran on his second tour with Colorado, has a 5.75 ERA this year (73 adjusted ERA, or ERA+). De La Rosa, in his 11th year, is at 4.86 (86). Friedrich, making his 20th MLB start, has a career ERA of 6.61 and ERA+ of 69. Flande would be making his third career start and is at 6.10 and 71.

Nevertheless, all four are faring significantly better against left-handed batters, with De La Rosa showing the most pronounced differential: .835 OPS by righties against him in 2014, .497 by lefties.

The 32-year-old Ethier’s career OPS is .823, and his career OPS+ is 122, as is his career wRC+. So far this year, he has fallen far below those figures, and more than 10 percent below his previous single-season lows, to .684, 93 and 95. In his most recent slump, from midgame June 17 through June 27, he reached base twice in 23 plate appearances.

[mlbvideo id=”34160839″ width=”400″ height=”224″ /]

But while going 7 for 19 with a 1.137 OPS in the past five games, Ethier had some of the best at-bats I’ve seen him have all year, including a three-run homer Saturday and a leadoff triple Monday that led to the only run of the Dodgers’ 1-0 victory. Then on Wednesday, Ethier squared up on a two-out, two-strike pitch in the fifth for a line single up the middle that drove in two runs for a 3-2 Dodger lead, and later with two out in the ninth, he battled from an 0-2 count to 3-2 before slicing a double to left that positioned himself to be the winning run.

Let’s put it this way: If Ethier is going to play against lefties, he probably has no better opportunity to show his stuff than the coming four games, especially after Don Mattingly said Wednesday that Matt Kemp was due for a rest. (Generally speaking, Kemp, Yasiel Puig and Scott Van Slyke figured to be regulars in the outfield this weekend.) Otherwise, it looks bad timing for a hitter in the process of finding himself.

Matt Kemp’s bounce-back month: .905 OPS

By Jon Weisman

On June 30, 2014

In Offense, Pregame

Indians at Dodgers, 7:10 p.m.
Dee Gordon, 2B
Yasiel Puig, RF
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
Matt Kemp, LF
Andre Ethier, CF
Juan Uribe, 3B
A.J. Ellis, C
Miguel Rojas, SS
Dan Haren, P

By Jon Weisman

June has been kind to many Dodgers, but on the hitting side, particularly so to Matt Kemp.

Since his OPS fell to .719 on May 30, its lowest point since the second game of the season, Kemp has been OPSing .905 (.381 on-base percentage and .525 slugging percentage). He leads the Dodgers in total bases for the month of June with 51.

Has Kemp been a changed hitter? Maybe. On the other hand, remember when I wrote how Kemp had the best batting average on balls in play in Dodger history, but that early in 2014, it was abnormally low? Well, take a look at the following:

Matt Kemp BABIP, 2014
.167 April 4-17
.392 April 18-May 21
.000 May 22-May 30
.405 May 31-June 29

For the year, Kemp’s BABIP is .352 — which exactly matches his career average.

Though Kemp’s home run power is down, he is on pace for a career-high 39 doubles. And Kemp still leads the Dodgers in home runs in June with three. Here’s an odd fact: The Dodgers have more wins in June (17) than home runs in June (13).

Andre Ethier gets a breather

By Jon Weisman

On June 27, 2014

In Offense, Pregame

For more highlights from Thursday, check Jon SooHoo’s LA Photog Blog.

Cardinals at Dodgers, 7:10 p.m.
Dee Gordon, 2B
Yasiel Puig, RF
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
Matt Kemp, LF
Scott Van Slyke, CF
Juan Uribe, 3B
A.J. Ellis, C
Miguel Rojas, SS
Hyun-Jin Ryu, P

By Jon Weisman

Andre Ethier is getting a rest day even though the Dodgers are facing a right-handed pitcher.

“Just to give Dre a little bit of a break,” Dodger manager Don Mattingly said before the game. “He’s had some bumps and bruises. Just a day.”

Ethier has had a rough June, though he’s not alone among Dodger outfielders in slumping from his usual totals. Ethier has a .246 on-base percentage and .215 slugging percentage in 69 plate appearances, with one double and no home runs.

Taking a drink of wRC cola

By Jon Weisman

On June 21, 2014

In Offense, Pregame

Jon SooHoo’s photo highlights from Friday can be found at LA Photog Blog.

Dodgers at Padres, 7:10 p.m.
Dee Gordon, 2B
Hanley Ramirez, SS
Yasiel Puig, RF
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
Matt Kemp, LF
Andre Ethier, CF
Justin Turner, 3B
Drew Butera, C
Josh Beckett, P

By Jon Weisman

Scott Van Slyke, Justin Turner and Matt Kemp have been the Dodgers’ most productive offensive players in June, while Yasiel Puig, who has been bothered by a strained hip flexor, has been struggling.

Kemp, with a .411 on-base percentage and .578 slugging in June, leads Dodger regulars this month with 14 wRC and 177 wRC+, according to Fangraphs, in 73 plate appearances.

Weighted Runs Created (wRC) is an improved version of Bill James’ Runs Created (RC) statistic, which attempted to quantify a player’s total offensive value and measure it by runs. In Runs Created, instead of looking at a player’s line and listing out all the details (e.g. 23 2B, 15 HR, 55 BB, 110 K, 19 SB, 5 CS), the information is synthesized into one metric in order to say, “Player X was worth 24 runs to his team last year.” While the idea was sound, James’ formula has since been superseded by Tom Tango’s wRC , which is based off of wOBA.

Similar to OPS+, Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) measures how a player’s wRC compares with league average. League average is 100, and every point above 100 is a percentage point above league average. For example, a 125 wRC+ means a player created 25% more runs than league average. Similarly, every point below 100 is a percentage point below league average, so a 80 wRC+ means a player created 20% fewer runs than league average.

In part-time action, Van Slyke and Turner each have 10 wRC. Van Slyke’s wRC+ is 230, while Turner is at 190.

Hanley Ramirez (10 wRC, 132 wRC+) and Dee Gordon (8 wRC, 113 wRC+) are both above average in June, while Puig (7 wRC, 95 wRC+) is fighting to get there. Farther down the list in June are Andre Ethier (3 wRC, 54 wRC+) and Adrian Gonzalez (3 wRC, 44 wRC+).

Ethier, whose career wRC+ against right-handed pitching is 140, a total he has matched or exceeded every year since 2008, is at 102 against righties this year.

Oh, those Petco Park effects

By Jon Weisman

On June 20, 2014

In Offense, Pregame

Dodgers at Padres, 7:10 p.m.
Dee Gordon, 2B
Hanley Ramirez, SS
Yasiel Puig, RF
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
Matt Kemp, LF
Andre Ethier, CF
Justin Turner, 3B
A.J. Ellis, C
Dan Haren, P

By Jon Weisman

Just a friendly reminder: Don’t count on the Dodgers scoring a ton of runs at San Diego this weekend.

The years and players come and go, but one thing remains fairly constant — Petco Park is where offenses go to wilt.

For an amuse bouche ahead of tonight’s series opener against the Padres, I put together the following little chart, comparing the Dodgers’ scoring at San Diego with their scoring at Colorado since 2004.

For example, the Dodgers have been shut out 12 times at Petco in this period, compared with three times at Coors Field. They have never scored 13 runs or more at Petco, a figure they have reached or surpassed three times at Coors.

Los Angeles has been held to three runs or less 53 times in 94 games at Petco (56.4 percent of the time). The Dodgers are 10-43 (.189) in those games, winning three 1-0 games.

In Colorado, the Dodgers have been held to three runs or less 30 times in 95 games in Colorado (31.6 percent). The Dodgers are 5-25 (.167) in those games, all when they have scored three runs. When they have scored two runs or less at Coors, the Dodgers are 0-19.

It’s not impossible to score bunches of runs in San Diego. It’s just pretty darn challenging.

Yasiel Puig: A plate discipline prodigy?

By Jon Weisman

On May 29, 2014

In Offense, Pregame

MLB Network graphic

Pirates at Dodgers, 7:10 p.m.
Dee Gordon, 2B
Andre Ethier, CF
Yasiel Puig, RF
Hanley Ramirez, SS
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
Matt Kemp, LF
Justin Turner, 3B
Tim Federowicz, C
Dan Haren, P

By Jon Weisman

In addition to his power, throwing arm and everything else, Yasiel Puig’s growing plate discipline (and the growth, to be clear, began in 2013) has been something else.

In fact, Puig is not only anything but a big hack at the plate, he’s fast becoming the opposite.

At age 23, Puig is on pace to draw 78 walks this year. Only one Dodger has drawn that many walks in a season at age 23 or under: Pee Wee Reese with 82 in 1942. The Los Angeles record is held by Ron Fairly, 75 in 1962.

Puig is walking in 12.0 percent of his plate appearances in 2014. That walk percentage is 12th in the National League this year, and among players 28 and under, it’s third in the Majors behind only Giancarlo Stanton (13.9 percent) and Mike Trout (12.5 percent).

In O-Swing%, or the percentage of pitches outside the strike zone at which a batter swings, Puig is at 26.9 percent for the season. That’s 24th among all qualified NL players, 10th among NL players 28 and under and the best among Dodger regulars.

Puig completes his first year in the Major Leagues on Monday.

The crazy rise in strikeouts for the Dodgers

By Jon Weisman

On April 21, 2014

In Analysis, Offense, Pitching

Photo: 2013 strikeout leader Clayton Kershaw throws his simulated game Sunday.

By Jon Weisman

Dodger hitters have never struck out more than 1,190 times in a season, a record set in 1996. This year, they’re on pace for 1,501.

Dodger pitchers have never struck out more than 1,292 batters in a season, a record set in 2013. This year, they’re on pace for 1,543. And Clayton Kershaw hasn’t pitched in a game since March.

Matt Kemp has the highest career BABIP in Dodger history — what does this mean?

By Jon Weisman

On April 17, 2014

In Analysis, Offense

By Jon Weisman

If it’s better to be lucky than good, it’s best to be both.

Matt Kemp has the interesting dichotomy so far this year of a .194 batting average with an .890 OPS, thanks to the fact that he has seven walks, three homers and two doubles but only one single in 38 plate appearances.

That compelled me to do some poking around, and among other things, I found that in the early going this young season, Kemp is both walking (18.4 percent of the time) and striking out (34.2 percent) at the highest rates of his career. Of his 38 plate appearances, he has only put the ball in play 15 times. (That’s 39 percent, compared with a 64 percent career rate entering this season.)

Of those 15 times, he has gotten only the aforementioned double doubles and single single, for a .200 batting average on balls in play. That’s on the unlucky side. I remembered that early in his career, Kemp had high BABIP numbers — folks who followed such things were always wondering if his BABIP would hold up as he got older — so I decided to see when the decline happened.

It never did.

Going into this season, Kemp had a career BABIP of .352. (It has since dropped to .351.) I’m no super-expert on stats, but this struck me as extraordinary. And, in fact, it’s tops in Dodger history.

Here’s a chart showing the best BABIP hitters since the team moved to Los Angeles:

Kemp is also near the top in the Majors over the past 10 years.

If Derek Jeter’s presence on this chart is any indication, BABIP is not necessarily something that declines significantly in your 30s. (Jeter was at .364 in his 20s, .345 since.) We’ll see, of course, in Kemp’s case. But I wouldn’t worry about that .194 batting average too much, or in any case, I’d be much happier about his returning power numbers than sad about the arguably temporary loss of singles.

Dodgers with 10 total bases in a game since 2000

By Jon Weisman

On April 7, 2014

In History, Offense

By Jon Weisman

After Hanley Ramirez hit a double and two home runs in their 6-2 victory over San Francisco on Sunday, the Dodgers are 31-3 this century when a player gets at least 10 total bases in a game. The three losses were each by one run.

April 4 pregame: Happy Home Opening Day

By Jon Weisman

On April 4, 2014

In Offense, Pregame, Transactions

Giants at Dodgers, 1:10 p.m.
Carl Crawford, LF
Yasiel Puig, RF
Hanley Ramirez, SS
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
Andre Ethier, CF
Juan Uribe, 3B
A.J. Ellis, C
Dee Gordon, 2B
Hyun-Jin Ryu, P

By Jon Weisman

Though Matt Kemp has been activated, he is not in today’s starting lineup. As SportsNet LA’s Allanna Rizzo notes on Twitter, Don Mattingly said that he hopes to ease Kemp into action in the later innings today and that Kemp would likely start on Saturday. Mike Baxter has been optioned to Triple-A Albuquerque.

The Dodgers have brought out the same starting eight position players in the same batting order for the fourth consecutive game, the first time the team has done this since they put out this group for five consecutive games, from May 12-16, 2009:

Juan Pierre, LF
Rafael Furcal, SS
Orlando Hudson, 2B
Andre Ethier, RF
Russell Martin, C
James Loney, 1B
Matt Kemp, CF
Casey Blake, 3B

In other notes, Hyun-Jin Ryu will “join Van Lingle Mungo (1937) and Don Drysdale (1965) as the only Dodgers pitchers to start in three of the first six games since 1914,” according to Eric Stephen of True Blue L.A.

Update: Matt Kemp will start and bat second after all, playing center field in place of Yasiel Puig, who was scratched after showing up late today. Andre Ethier will play right field.

Dodger Thoughts

Jon Weisman's outlet for dealing psychologically with the Los Angeles Dodgers, baseball and life

Category: Offense (Page 4 of 6)

Dodgers remain on record strikeout pace

Extreme Carl Crawford

Since June 1, the Dodgers have won 29 games while hitting 21 home runs

Dodger scoring drought isn’t permanent, but it’s a long one

Clutch much? Dodgers actually crisp with RISP, but is it ever enough?

Just as Ethier heats up, wall of lefties in Colorado awaits

Matt Kemp’s bounce-back month: .905 OPS

Andre Ethier gets a breather

Taking a drink of wRC cola

Oh, those Petco Park effects

Yasiel Puig: A plate discipline prodigy?

The crazy rise in strikeouts for the Dodgers

Matt Kemp has the highest career BABIP in Dodger history — what does this mean?

Dodgers with 10 total bases in a game since 2000

April 4 pregame: Happy Home Opening Day

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