Dodger Thoughts

For more images from Wednesday, visit LA Photog Blog. 

By Jon Weisman

“On pace.” Is there any more beguiling, teasing, misleading two-word construction than you? You engage and mock us all at once.

But with the Dodgers clubbing four home runs in their final game of April, a 7-3 victory Wednesday over San Francisco, let’s start today with some off-day amusement.

Yes, that projection has Adrian Gonzalez and Alex Guerrero combining for 101 home runs. On the other hand, two of the biggest power players in the Dodger lineup, Yasiel Puig and Yasmani Grandal, have barely gotten going.

Who knows what the future holds, but the power display has been fun to watch for fans of the Dodgers, who played .619 ball in April, putting them on pace for … 100 wins.

By Jon Weisman

Below are the batting statistics for Dodger position players in 2015. Do these work for you?

• 437 plate appearances
• 383 at-bats
• 62 runs
• 115 hits
• 35 doubles
• 3 triples
• 17 home runs
• 61 RBI
• 48 walks
• 78 strikeouts
• 3 hit by pitch
• 4 sacrifice hits
• 3 sacrifice flies
• .300 batting average
• .380 on-base percentage
• .540 slugging percentage
• .920 OPS 
• 162 OPS+

Bold — leads National League.

For more photos from Sunday, visit LA Photog Blog. 

For more photo highlights from Thursday, visit the LA Photog Blog.

By Jon Weisman

I wouldn’t say I’m afraid of jinxing the Dodgers by what I’m write, but I’m certainly aware what I write can look shaky a few hours later. Zack Greinke certainly did me no favors Thursday, struggling through five innings before the Dodgers came back for their 8-4 victory.

The victory shocked those fixated on what was the Dodgers’ 1-54 record when trailing after six innings, as well as those who view the Dodgers as constantly scuffling and struggling to score runs.

My sense is that most people perceive the Dodger offense as a massive underachiever, the George Costanza of platesmen, characterized by singular bumbling and a laughable parade of opportunities wasted.

But at the risk of Edwin Jackson shutting them out over seven innings this afternoon at Wrigley, let me just point out again: The Dodgers just about have the best offense in the National League.

Here’s where the Dodgers rank, according to Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference.com:

• WAR: first
• Offense: second, behind Pittsburgh
• Weighted runs created plus (wRC+): tied for first with Pittsburgh
• Runs per game: fourth, behind Colorado, Pittsburgh and Washington
• Adjusted OPS: tied for first with Pittsburgh
• OBP and OPS with runners in scoring position: first

Take a moment to digest that. They are near the top in almost every major category. In runs per game, where they rank fourth, they are 0.04 runs per game (six runs in 153 games, or about one run per month) out of second place, behind only Coors Field-enhanced Colorado.

How is this possible, you ask? Well, the Dodgers are getting above-average production at nearly every position, as Fangraphs’ Offense stat shows: (Note: the list below was updated from earlier this morning to correct an error.)

• First base: sixth in the NL
• Second base: first
• Shortstop: third
• Third base: second
• Outfield: second
• Catcher: 15th
• Pitcher: first

One thing you might notice is that for all the drama that surrounded it, much of it media-generated, the Dodger outfield has been an enormous success offensively.

[mlbvideo id=”36384109″ width=”550″ height=”308″ /]

Matt Kemp has a .926 OPS since the All-Star Break, and Carl Crawford and Scott Van Slyke are both above .800. You might downgrade Yasiel Puig, who had a big second-half slump after a superb first half, but now Puig is heating up again, going 12 for 30 (.400) with two walks, two doubles and a home run in his past seven games.

You also have an infield that is strong across the board offensively. Dee Gordon’s baserunning provides value even when his bat is suffering — which isn’t the case right now, given that he is hitting .366/.377/.442/.819 in his past 10 games (53 plate appearances). And while people keep wondering when Hanley Ramirez is going to get hot (staying healthy is another issue), he just happens to be hitting .439/.489/.537/1.086 in his past 12 games (45 plate appearances).

Then there’s the Dodgers increasingly not-so-secret weapon, Justin Turner, who with Van Slyke and Andre Ethier — who has quietly put together a .420 on-base percentage as a reserve — has given the Dodgers one of their best benches in recent memory.

Catcher has been a season-long disappointment offensively, and no one on the team will win a Silver Slugger award. But overall offensively, they simply excel.

Tonight, the #Dodgers had eight players with exactly one RBI for the first time since June 28, 1973. http://t.co/jr7fF0EqNf

— Dodger Insider (@DodgerInsider) September 19, 2014

I get accused of being too positive about the Dodgers. But I find myself astounded sometimes by the negativity online toward a first-place team, a team that is one game away from the best record in the NL. With the stakes so high for a team that hasn’t been to the World Series in 25 years and 11 months, I know how vexing it is when the Dodger offense doesn’t come through. The fact remains that nearly without exception, this offense comes through more often than any other offense in the NL.

The Dodgers’ weaknesses aren’t lost on me at all, but I refuse to let them define a team that has so many strengths to consider. I know this won’t matter to anyone the next time the Dodgers strike out with the bases loaded, but this team wouldn’t be where it is today, with a magic number of two for a postseason berth and eight for a division title, if it were only a Clayton Kershaw solo act.

By Jon Weisman

“Want to defeat the Dodgers? Let them load the bases.”

That’s the headline of Bill Chuck’s story at Gammons Daily today, and one that many Dodger fans will nod in agreement to.

The Dodgers have the worst offense in baseball with the bases loaded. It’s unmistakable, and it’s beyond frustrating — it feels like not being able to take candy from a baby that really shouldn’t be having the candy in the first place.

I’ve argued for a couple of months that while this is all true, bases-loaded situations are such a small fraction of a team’s at-bats with men on base and runners in scoring position that it’s not worth obsessing over.

• Bases loaded: 109 plate appearances, .193 on-base percentage, last in the National League
• Runners in scoring position: 1,484 plate appearances, .357 on-base percentage, first in the National League

Which stat is more important? The one that occurs less than once a game, or the one that occurs more than 10 times per game?

But today, here’s a different way to look at the Dodgers with the bases loaded, inspired by Chuck’s piece. Let’s see how the team does, batter-by-batter.

The mic drops

• Dan Haren, 1 for 1 with a three-run double
• Darwin Barney, 1 for 1 with a two-run single

The decent

• Miguel Rojas and Justin Turner, 2 for 6 combined with an HBP and seven RBI (.429 OBP)
• Andre Ethier, 3 for 9 with a triple and eight RBI (.333 OBP)
• Adrian Gonzalez, 4 for 12 with two sacrifice flies and nine RBI (.286 OBP)
• Juan Uribe, 3 for 9 with four RBI (.333 OBP)

The A.J.

• A.J. Ellis, 0 for 1 with an HBP, two sacrifice flies and four RBI (.250 OBP)

The indecent

• Hanley Ramirez, 2 for 12 with a walk and five RBI (.231 OBP)
• Carl Crawford, 1 for 5 with one RBI (.200 OBP)
• Yasiel Puig, 0 for 7 with a walk and one RBI (.125 OBP)
• Dee Gordon, 0 for 10 with two sacrifice flies and three RBI (.000 OBP)
• Scott Van Slyke, 0 for 3 with one RBI (.000 OBP)
• Drew Butera, 0 for 4 (.000 OBP)
• Matt Kemp, 0 for 9 (.000 OBP)

There are some awful results there, from the Dodgers’ second baseman, shortstop and entire starting outfield. Kemp, Puig, Crawford and Van Slyke are 1 for 24 with a walk and three RBI.

But if anything ever cried out for small sample size warnings, it’s this.

Gordon leads the laggards with 12 bases-loaded plate appearances this season. Twelve, out of 574 plate appearances overall. Two percent. Maybe there’s a problem with Gordon’s approach. Or maybe 12 trips to the plate aren’t enough to judge.

In the past three seasons, Kemp has had three singles in 20 at-bats with the bases loaded. In the three seasons before that, he was 12 for 33 with five home runs, a .366 on-base percentage. .848 slugging percentage and 47 RBI.

There’s a difference between being bad and being hopeless. The Dodgers have been bad with the bases loaded. But as memorable as the failures have been, the opportunities have scarce, and it’s a situation that can easily turn itself around. Even in September.

Through they’re underachieving in this area, clearly they’re excelling in many others. Given that the Dodgers are in first place in the NL West, maybe — just maybe — batting with the bases loaded isn’t the be-all and end-all of baseball.

For more photos from Saturday, visit LA Photog Blog.

By Jon Weisman

Throughout their history, like any other team, the Dodgers have hit the wall offensively from time to time, far worse than their three runs in 22 innings this weekend in San Diego, including Saturday’s 2-1, 10-inning loss.

Only two years ago, there were three consecutive shutouts by the Giants. And before that, these droughts from 2007 and 2003. And so on back through time. It’s almost impossible for anything to surpass the 33 consecutive scoreless innings that finished the 1966 World Series, a year before I was born.

In my own lifetime, the pinnacle of offensive debacles was the first two games of the 1981 National League Division Series, which left me with as hopeless a feeling as I’ve ever had: 20 innings, one run, two walkoff losses.

Dodgers	000 000	100-1
Astros	000 001	002-3

Dodgers	000 000	000 00-0
Astros	000 000 000 01-1

 
That was tough stuff. But the Dodgers came home and outscored Houston, 12-2, in the final three games of the NLDS and were on their way to the next round.

The 1988 Dodgers practically hung their legacy on being offensively challenged, a branding that’s only partially deserved (they were slightly below average in offense but seaworthy, before the injuries to Kirk Gibson and others nearly through them overboard). Better offensive teams than the ’88 Dodgers have come up short, but there’s no way to know in advance. Repeat: there’s no way. In the end, the team is either going to score when it counts or it won’t.