Dodger Thoughts

In their past 16 games, the Dodgers have gone 8-8. Five of those eight losses since April 17 have come in the ninth or 10th innings, and another, Friday’s 5-4 defeat against Chicago, came after Dodger relievers allowed a key run in their first inning of work.

Dodger relievers have a 4.38 ERA this season (compared to the starters’ 3.13) and have allowed 44 percent (17 of 39) of inherited runners to score. Last year, Dodger relievers had a 3.92 ERA, and 33 percent of their inherited runners scored.

It might be natural to conclude from this that the bullpen is a disaster. It’s not, but it has definitely shaped the Dodgers’ .500 play of late.

Two veterans – Todd Coffey and Mike MacDougal – have been almost completely ineffective, with MacDougal losing his job after only 5 2/3 innings this year. (Ken Gurnick of MLB.com writes that MacDougal never found his command after batting a finger injury and the flu.) Coffey, for that matter, has only pitched 2 2/3 innings himself in 2012.

A younger pitcher, 26-year-old Scott Elbert, has allowed opponents to go 12 for 27 with two home runs and three walks, for a 1.204 OPS – something close to a Matt Kemp figure. Left-handed batters are 5 for 13 with a home run and a walk (1.159 OPS).

On the bright side, Josh Lindblom and Kenley Jansen have been nearly flawless this season. Each has had two disappointing games – and yet the Dodgers have won every one of them. Lindblom allowed two inherited Padres to tie the game April 15 and gave up three runs against Colorado May 1, but neither outing cost the Dodgers a victory. Jansen has held opponents scoreless in 13 of 14 games since Opening Day, the only blemish being the two-run home run he surrendered to the Padres on April 13 – another game that the Dodgers pulled out in the end.

In addition, Jamey Wright, with the exception of his ninth-inning defeat Wednesday, has been useful.

That leaves us with Guerra, the pitcher who has done the most to shape the current perception of the bullpen.  Guerra began the year with six consecutive scoreless appearances, and even after his first blown save at Milwaukee, came back to retire the side in order with two strikeouts in each of his next two games.  Two weeks ago, Guerra had a 2.16 ERA, 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings and an opponents’ OPS of .450.

Then Guerra lost two games on consecutive nights against Atlanta, taking a line drive to the chin in one, before giving up another ninth-inning run in a victory over Washington, and suddenly he was dogmeat.

This should tell you something obvious – and not that Guerra doesn’t have the stuff to pitch in the ninth inning. It never fails that any late-inning failure will be seen by a huge number of fans as an inability to pitch in that particular stage of the game. There probably aren’t five people in the world who can tell you how Dodger batters hit in the ninth inning – so-called “clutch performance” at the plate has never been tied to a single inning, but rather late innings. But when it comes to relievers, there’s this vast perceived gulf between the eighth and the ninth – a gulf that, it seems safe to say, can be blamed on the invention of the save stat and the idea that any time you allow a tying or winning run to score in a save situation is inexcusable. Somehow, it’s lost that runs allowed in the seventh and eighth innings hurt your chances of winning as much as runs allowed in the ninth.

No, what Guerra’s season-to-date should tell you is how much one bad week can wreck a reliever’s resume, especially this early in the season. Again, compare this to hitters, or even starting pitchers. You would never take a bad week and let that be your verdict on a player who wasn’t a relief pitcher, not if you were a sentient human.  But, especially in the first part of a season, that’s exactly what’s being done with Guerra if you’ve lost faith in him.

There has always been some doubt about how good Guerra will be, but 60 games into his major-league career, even with the struggles of recent days, Guerra has a 2.95 ERA, 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings and an opponents’ OPS of .643. The next Mariano Rivera he isn’t, but he does seem to have some real talent (regardless, if this needs to be said, of what inning he pitches in).

One month isn’t enough to tell you how good a bullpen is. It doesn’t mean the losses don’t hurt – it’s amazing to think that Los Angeles could be 22-4 if Dodger relievers had been able to pitch just a little more scoreless ball. However, the fact that the Dodgers have come back to score their own late-inning rallies should be all you need to know about the imperfections of bullpens ’round the country.

Maybe Coffey or Elbert won’t get it together this season. Maybe someone like Shawn Tolleson (1.47 ERA, 11.9 K/9 in 55 innings at Double-A Chattanooga in 2011-12) could help the team now. And who knows what Ronald Belisario will bring? But you can’t say right now that any of the current Dodger relievers won’t be good over the course of the 2012 season. You also can’t say that one of the good ones won’t suddenly lose it. It’s all a matter of educated guesses at this point.

Guerra came back on Tuesday to save the Dodgers’ 7-6 victory at Colorado, two of the outs coming after a one-out single and A.J. Ellis’ passed ball put the tying run in scoring position. What does that tell you? Basically, nothing.

On an aggravating day for any Dodger not named Jerry Hairston Jr., the Dodgers dropped their third of four games on this week’s road trip.

Newest team member Bobby Abreu had a chance to give the Dodgers a lead in the ninth inning, but his drive to right with a runner on base fell short, and Los Angeles fell to the Cubs, 5-4.

Hairston is OPSing .911 after hitting a home run, triple and single for the Dodgers, accounting for half of their six hits. Matt Kemp (triple) and Andre Ethier (sacrifice fly) each had RBI in the eighth inning that brought the Dodgers from down 5-2 to within a run.

Kemp, whose batting average briefly fell below .400 for the first time since Opening Day, is now hitting .404.

But mostly, this game was a bummer for the Dodgers, starting with a difficult outing for Chad Billingsley, who allowed four runs, eight hits — five of them for extra bases — and three walks in six innings.  The Cubs’ David De Jesus had a single, double and triple before the fourth inning was done.

The Cubs had some trouble making the most of their opportunities, but they never trailed. With the Dodgers losing 3-1 in the top of the sixth, Billingsley hit for himself, and then gave up a pinch-hit home run to Joe Mather with two out in the bottom of the inning. Scott Elbert and Todd Coffey then combined to allow what came to be the critical run in the bottom of the seventh.

The Dodgers had only four baserunners in six innings off Chicago starter Paul Maholm. Abreu’s first at-bat as a Dodger was a strikeout with A.J. Ellis on first base that ended the top of the seventh. Ellis was then hit by a two-out, 2-2 pitch in the ninth to give Abreu the near-miss chance for redemption.

You can’t say Dodger games aren’t exciting these days. Not sure I’ve seen this linescore in the final two innings before …

Dodgers 001 000 022 - 5
Rockies 000 011 033 - 8

Jason Giambi’s pinch-hit, three-run home run off Scott Elbert ended the game of leapfrog in the bottom of the ninth, giving Colorado an 8-5 victory over Los Angeles.

The frolic began after the Dodgers, who took a 1-0 lead in the third when Mark Ellis drove home A.J. Ellis with a single, fell behind on solo homers off Clayton Kershaw (who brought a career ERA at Coors Field of 5.88 into the game) by Carlos Gonzalez in the fourth and Wilin Rosario in the fifth. It remained that way after Jerry Hairston Jr. was erroneously called out to end the sixth.

In the top of the eighth, Hairston got another chance after singles by newly crowned NL April Player of the Month Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier — and delivered a two-run double for a 3-2 lead.

Kershaw had only thrown 81 pitches to that point and looked like he might be a good bet for a complete-game victory, but it didn’t happen.  He allowed three runs, capped by Gonzalez’s second homer of the game — the first time in Kershaw’s career he’s allowed a homer hat trick to another team.

But even against Rafael Betancourt, who had allowed one run in 10 innings all season, the Dodgers weren’t done. Adam Kennedy, whose .095 batting average nearly mirrored Betancourt’s 0.90 ERA, singled. Two outs later and with Kennedy stuck on first, the Rockies walked Kemp intentionally rather than give him the chance to tie the game with one swing. (For Kemp, it was the sixth game of at least three walks in his career, something I predicted after noting Juan Rivera batting behind him and a left-hander starting the game.

That brought to the plate Dee Gordon, who was in the cleanup spot thanks to a double switch in the previous inning. On a 2-2 pitch, Gordon doubled and tied the game at 5.

Jamey Wright, who had finished the eighth inning for the Dodgers, came back out in the ninth and immediately dug a hole by walking Eric Young, Jr. and Marco Scutaro.  A sacrifice bunt later, Giambi came up in place of Dexter Fowler, and Scott Elbert — whose career lowpoint came at Coors Field two Mays ago — gave up the game-winning blast on a 1-0 fastball.

In addition to television coverage on Prime Ticket and KCAL, the press conference introducing the new Dodger ownership team will be streamed at MLB.com and FoxSportsWest.com. Time permitting, I will live-blog some quotes in this space.

Vin Scully: “By the time the day is over, you will sense the following things … commitment, fan-friendly, definition of winning, complete and honorable way to get there, and above all, longevity.”

Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa on Mark Walter: “A man who realizes that the owners of this team are really the people of this town.”

Scully, telling the tale of a young prospect. “The manager was asked, ‘Just how good is this kid, what’s his ceiling, how high can he go?’ The manager thought for a moment, and said, ‘His ceiling is the ceiling of the Sistine Chapel.’ It’s time now to meet the group that will take the Dodgers higher than the ceiling of the Sistine Chapel.”

Walter: “Thank you, Mr. Scully.”

Walter: “This is really not about us. This is about the Dodgers. One of the most honored and storied franchises in history, with limitless pride and potential. And for us, the Dodgers begin with the fans. … We are passionate about making this organization the best it can be in every respect, from winning, to its relationship with the community and to all the philanthropic things it can be a platform with. We know this is going to be hard work, and it’s going to take time … but I promise you this commitment to work will be a labor of love.”

Magic Johnson: “I just talked to the employees. It starts with you, because if you’re the best, it trickles down to the players on the field.”

Johnson: “Yes, we’re in first place, but it’s early in the season, so we want to continue to support the team. We know we have the best pitcher in baseball in Clayton Kershaw and the best player in baseball in Matt Kemp.”

Johnson: “We’re going to outwork everybody. I can’t wait until my office is done. … I told my team, I’m a man who gets up early and will be here early.”

Johnson: “Mr. O’Malley, thank you. We don’t have to reinvent the wheel, we just have to go back to the time where you had it before.”

Johnson: “Chick Hearn used to call my games, the sweertst voice in basketball. And now I get the cahnce, the sweetest voice, I’m almost about to cry, and now I got Vin Scully.”

Johnson: “General parking is going down from $15 to $10.”

Stan Kasten: “The team, the fan experience and our relationship with our community. I assure you I could spend an hour on each of these subjects … and I’m just coming off a six-month gag order, so I’ve got a lot to say.”

Kasten: “A culture of winning – for me, that has always started and ended with a scouting and player development system … both domestically and increasingly important, internationally.”

Kasten: “The other commitment we want to make is our own personal availability and accessibility. … You won’t have to look for me. I’ll be on the concourse.”

Kasten: “Today I want to announce a special e-mail suggestion box: fanbox@ladodgers.com. We want to hear from all of you. Send us your thoughts and your suggestions … this is how we’re going to do it.”

Kasten: “We’re going to liberalize our policy for access to batting practice. We’re going to have more access for autographs.  We’re going to do a lot more with social media. … There will be times you will have players in full uniform greeting fans at the gate. The players understand why this is important. You never get any pushback – you just have to ask them.”

Scully: “Walking across the field with Ned Colletti, it seemed like just yesterday we were just introducing Joe Torre and the McCourts. And my mind began to wonder, and I realized I was there to see Branch Rickey hand off the franchise to Walter O’Malley.”

Rob Manfred, MLB executive: “Dodger fans have stayed loyal through difficult times, and we know this ownership group will reward them for their support.”

Scully: “I will finish with a disappointing note.  … They were going to have a small basketball court put out here, and Magic and I were going to go one on one, skins against the shirts. Unfortunately during the Washington Nationals series, I suffered a split infinitive and will not be able to contest.”

Moving on to the Q&A …

Kasten (slight paraphrase): “No team has had sustained success without a sound scouting and player development system. But we understand where we are, this market, this fan base … these fans deserve a team that can win, can repeat, can contend well. We intend to be aggressive with that as well. We’re not going to pass up any opportunity. We’re not going to wait for 25 kids to grow into their uniform.”

Johnson: “I’m gonna be involved — heavily.”

Walter: “A hundred percent of all the operations of this baseball team … everything that happens in Chavez Ravine and the Dodgers is controlled and managed by us, and all of the money from all that goes to the Dodgers. Former ownership does have an economic interest in the profits from the possible eventual development of any part of the property, but that’s down the road. In terms of current operations, parking, it’s not related to that.”

Johnson: “I don’t want the fans to think just because we wrote a big check that we’re gonna stop now. … We’re out to win, and we’re out to win for the fans. I don’t want that question to go, ‘Now we’re short on money.’ … I didn’t come here to not win and not give the fans a great experience, because they deserve that.”

Kasten: “During the due diligence phase of this purchase, I had a day where we brought in a dozen engineers to really survey the building. That’s why I referred to the back-of-the-house  things that need near-term attention: power, water, information systems. As far as enhancements, we have ideas. … Our plan is to retain those things that make this ballpark so special but try to upgrade the experience so that it’s more in keeping with what fans can expect in the 21^st century. We think we can do both.”

Walter: “We don’t have any plans for development, but there’s 300 acres here. I don’t know what the future may or may not hold, but we don’t have any current plans.”

Kasten: “Nothing can be developed if we don’t think it’s good for our fans and (the franchise).”

Johnson: “Frank McCourt is not involved in any, shape, fashion. If you need me to come up, I’m 6-9. The rumors, we’re squashing them right now … his only future profits is from new development, if we do any. There’s nothing on the table.”

Johnson: “This franchise is moving forward with us. If (McCourt) is part of the future development, so what? … That’s how you got to get it sometimes. We own it. We control everything. Fans got to understand, we’re going to make sure we’re going to win and have a great team every day and that they’re going to have a great experience. … Frank’s not here, he’s not part of the Dodgers anymore — we should be clapping just for that.”

Walter: “It is a lot of money. I believe the value is there. If we do things right … I believe people will look back and say the value is there.

Scully: “I am telling each and every one of you right now — this is the last new ownership press conference I will ever attend.”

* * *

• Using data from Baseball Info Solutions, ESPN.com determined that Jerry Hariston, Jr. was April’s top defensive player in the National League.
  

  … Hairston was able to make the good play and the great play. He finished April tied with Ryan Zimmerman for the major league lead with four Web Gems (including the No. 1 Gem on consecutive nights). He was credited with one Defensive Run Saved at second base, one at third base and two in left field.

  Hairston finished April with a Good Play/Misplay tally of 11 to 1 in only 15 games in his first month with the Dodgers.

  His highlight-reel play came on April 19 against the Milwaukee Brewers while playing third base, when he robbed Alex Gonzalez of the game-tying hit in the eighth inning with a diving stop and throw from his knees on a groundball down the line.

  The next day, he missed on a similar diving attempt against Jose Altuve of the Astros, but then sprinted into foul territory and threw a strike to second base to nail Altuve’s attempt at an extra-base hit.

  Hairston got six of our 10 first-place votes, and even someone who voted him second-best was quite impressed. “No matter where you put him on the field, he posseses the ability to make a dynamic play,” Singleton said. “His value as a utility player is as high as anyone on the defensive side.” …

• Ted Lilly left Tuesday’s game after six innings and 79 pitches because of a stiff side muscle, while Juan Uribe re-injured his wrist during batting practice, according to Dylan Hernandez of the Times. No immediate word on whether the pair might miss more playing time.
• Albuquerque infielder Luis Cruz has known Isotopes manager Lorenzo Bundy since childhood, writes Christopher Jackson of Albuquerque Baseball Examiner.
• Clayton Kershaw’s ERA at Coors Field: 6.75 in 2011, 5.88 in his career (49 innings).

On a night that Dee Gordon hit his first major-league home run (off the upper deck, no less) …

On a night that Andre Ethier and A.J. Ellis also hit taters …

On a night that Ted Lilly pitched an effective six innings …

On a night that Mark Ellis had four hits and fine defense …

On a night that Javy Guerra struck out the first and last batters of the ninth inning …

I’m not going to spend a moment worrying about what might have gone wrong in between.

Dodgers 7, Rockies 6.